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Here's how we know sanctions are hurting Russia

CaughtInThe

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Trump's genius...

"When the Communists and Vladimir Lenin took over Russia in 1917, they repudiated old czarist debts and the country defaulted on its foreign obligations -- the largest sovereign default in history.

Now, with much of the world economy repudiating Russia after Vladimir Putin's invaders stormed into Ukraine, the country is again on the cusp of a default on its foreign obligations.

While the West has made very clear it will not do anything that could be construed as joining in firefights against nuclear-armed Russia, its economic blockade and sanctions of an unprecedented scale are clearly having an effect."
 

phoenix2020

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Trump's genius...

"When the Communists and Vladimir Lenin took over Russia in 1917, they repudiated old czarist debts and the country defaulted on its foreign obligations -- the largest sovereign default in history.

Now, with much of the world economy repudiating Russia after Vladimir Putin's invaders stormed into Ukraine, the country is again on the cusp of a default on its foreign obligations.

While the West has made very clear it will not do anything that could be construed as joining in firefights against nuclear-armed Russia, its economic blockade and sanctions of an unprecedented scale are clearly having an effect."
To be honest that article did not paint a particularly compelling story. Some of its key points once you get past the headline:
  • Russia has very little foreign debt and if they default, the main consequence is that Western entities will shoulder all the burden while Russia offsets this by nationalizing foreign owned physical capital within their borders
  • One real question is whether Russians will be willing to forego western comforts and no one knows
  • Another key question is how much of a lifeline China will provide and again, no one knows
  • Aside from EU oil and gas purchases, Western sanctions are “complete” already so if they don’t compel change, there are no more screws to turn.
My read of that article was that the sanctions are unlikely to effect meaningful change.
 

MaryP

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To be honest that article did not paint a particularly compelling story. Some of its key points once you get past the headline:
  • Russia has very little foreign debt and if they default, the main consequence is that Western entities will shoulder all the burden while Russia offsets this by nationalizing foreign owned physical capital within their borders
  • One real question is whether Russians will be willing to forego western comforts and no one knows
  • Another key question is how much of a lifeline China will provide and again, no one knows
  • Aside from EU oil and gas purchases, Western sanctions are “complete” already so if they don’t compel change, there are no more screws to turn.
My read of that article was that the sanctions are unlikely to effect meaningful change.
I agree it's not as big a blow as the hype would have us believe, but it's taking a toll. No one expected the sanctions to cause Putin to turn around and go home immediately. The West knew all the things you mentioned before they took the sanctions. They must have good reason to believe the impact will benefit us and hurt Russia.
 

CaughtInThe

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I agree it's not as big a blow as the hype would have us believe, but it's taking a toll. No one expected the sanctions to cause Putin to turn around and go home immediately. The West knew all the things you mentioned before they took the sanctions. They must have good reason to believe the impact will benefit us and hurt Russia.
correct. the West is playing the long game because it's all we can play (short of sending our militaries into the Ukraine).
 

phoenix2020

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I agree it's not as big a blow as the hype would have us believe, but it's taking a toll. No one expected the sanctions to cause Putin to turn around and go home immediately. The West knew all the things you mentioned before they took the sanctions. They must have good reason to believe the impact will benefit us and hurt Russia.
Agree but also disagree. So far the West is not doing all that they could do. After all, the West could make support for Russia extremely hard on China… but this would come at the cost of the West giving up a lot of its own creature comforts which it is clearly unwilling to do. Therefore I would argue that it is China, not the West, that is playing long game here…. Gaining access to Russia’s vast raw materials while giving up nothing for it… while helping Russia sustain a war that weakens both Russia and the West.
 

Monica33

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Hilarious .

How to pretend it is sunny when the wind is howling and the rain is pouring down .

Which month will America have to formally admit to bankruptcy with the EU following?

Huge Depression but when the Sheeple seek revenge all hell will surface .

This year .

Only one group to survive -- headed by Russia , China and Iran
.Russia to do best because it can feed its people with few concerns and is supported by the majority of the planet .

Could we even see a formal Chinese invasion of America next year --- pick up the survivors to work the farm lands for their own people ?
 
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MaryP

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Agree but also disagree. So far the West is not doing all that they could do. After all, the West could make support for Russia extremely hard on China… but this would come at the cost of the West giving up a lot of its own creature comforts which it is clearly unwilling to do. Therefore I would argue that it is China, not the West, that is playing long game here…. Gaining access to Russia’s vast raw materials while giving up nothing for it.
You meant to reply to @CaughtInThe , so I'll turn it over to him.
 

CaughtInThe

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Agree but also disagree. So far the West is not doing all that they could do. After all, the West could make support for Russia extremely hard on China… but this would come at the cost of the West giving up a lot of its own creature comforts which it is clearly unwilling to do. Therefore I would argue that it is China, not the West, that is playing long game here…. Gaining access to Russia’s vast raw materials while giving up nothing for it… while helping Russia sustain a war that weakens both Russia and the West.
i think we're walking a tightrope where all things have been put on the table where some have been done, some have been rejected and some we're holding to play at the appropriate time.

and, of course, none of us knows exactly why certain things are done/not done. it could be we don't want WWIII or it could be as simple as a promise to get something from another country if we do "X".

i would love to be in every room during every conversation/negotiation so i could see what's really on the table.
 

Monica33

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God help America if the ruling narrative is to introduce Smallpox into America and perhaps Canada with an aim to bring combined population below 100 million .

Fauci has gone AWOL . Perhaps he is organising the final details right now .

I will send food parcels to selected posters here .

So do not upset the pretty lady .
 

CaughtInThe

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God help America if the ruling narrative is to introduce Smallpox into America and perhaps Canada with an aim to bring combined population below 100 million .
what is wrong with you?
 
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