I have a question for you: What would it take in today’s world for America’s military spending to go down?
Here’s one admittedly farfetched scenario: Vladimir Putin loses his grip on power and Russia retrenches militarily while reaching out to normalize relations with the West. At the same time, China prudently decides to spend less on its military, pursuing economic power while abandoning any pretense to a militarized superpower status. Assuming such an unlikely scenario, with a “
new cold war” nipped in the bud and the United States as the world’s unchallenged global hegemon, Pentagon spending would surely shrink, right?
Well, I wouldn’t count on it.
Based on developments after the Soviet Union’s collapse three decades ago, here’s what I suspect would be far more likely to happen. The US military, aided by various strap-hanging think tanks, intelligence agencies, and weapons manufacturers, would simply shift into overdrive.
As its spokespeople would explain to anyone who’d listen (especially in Congress), the disappearance of the Russian and Chinese threats would carry its own awesome dangers, leaving this country prospectively even less safe than before.
You’d hear things like: We’ve suddenly been plunged into a more complex multipolar world, significantly more chaotic now that our “near-peer” rivals are no longer challenging us, with even more asymmetrical threats to US military dominance. The key word, of course, would be “more”—linked, as I’m sure you’ve guessed, to omnipresent Pentagon demands for yet more military spending.
When it comes to weapons, budgets, and war, the military-industrial complex’s philosophy is captured by an arch comment of the legendary actress
Mae West: “Too much of a good thing can be wonderful.”
What Will It Take to Shrink the Pentagon’s Budget?