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Helicopter money is closer than you think

If it's tax that they want to avoid, they could invest all of that offshore money, which would lower their taxes on it to zero. And if supply-siders were correct, this would already be happening, because, hey, investment brings in the bucks! But it's not, because companies aren't stupid enough to invest real money without the likelihood of sufficient demand in return. Demand is a solid thing - dollars ready to be spent. There is nothing "fairy" or magical about it. What is imaginary is your belief that the dollars that all companies chase just appear out of nowhere, just because the company puts a product on the shelf.

You keep on saying that we have had 8 years of unprecedented stimulus spending, but that is far from the truth. You don't seem to comprehend what "stimulus" actually means, because very little government spending has been used to increase demand. We lost so incredibly much demand in 2008 that the sub-trillion that was actually spent into the economy wasn't nearly enough to make up for lost consumer spending and business investment. And it was short-lived. Deficit spending has been way too low ever since.

So is it the amount of the Stimulus or the duration that determines whether or not it will be successful?

Is it meant to jumpstart a economy or sustain a economy?
 
What I find interesting about this thread are the people who constantly quote and use authoritarian fallacies in Milton Friedman, and are now completely against this idea that Freidman initially thought up.
 
So is it the amount of the Stimulus or the duration that determines whether or not it will be successful?

It's both. The stimulus has to make up for whatever demand was lost (which was a hell of a lot), and it has to last long enough for normal demand and production to grow back.

Is it meant to jumpstart a economy or sustain a economy?

Stimulus is meant to jumpstart an economy until it gets back to normal. That is not to say that normal deficit spending isn't a regular part of GDP, though, because it is.

Economies can only be "self-sustaining" (I suppose your definition would be "no deficit spending") if injections like a trade surplus, business investment, and consumer debt can make up for leakages like savings and a trade deficit. Otherwise, the economy will shrink due to lower aggregate demand.
 
It's both. The stimulus has to make up for whatever demand was lost (which was a hell of a lot), and it has to last long enough for normal demand and production to grow back.



Stimulus is meant to jumpstart an economy until it gets back to normal. That is not to say that normal deficit spending isn't a regular part of GDP, though, because it is.

Economies can only be "self-sustaining" (I suppose your definition would be "no deficit spending") if injections like a trade surplus, business investment, and consumer debt can make up for leakages like savings and a trade deficit. Otherwise, the economy will shrink due to lower aggregate demand.

I'm not against public sector spending or deficit spending nor am I a advocate for returning to the Gold standard.

Govt funding has its place and if done right can lead to innovative technologies and extraordinary accomplishments and yes, economic growth

My Father was a retired NASA engineer and worked on the Appolo missions so I have a soft spot for the Aerospace community

That kind of funding does more than just get us to the moon 6 times or put rovers on Mars. It inspires young people to pursue carreers in Math and Science and eventually become our next generation of Aerospace engineers or even Astronauts.

Is NASA's primary objective to pursue profits and wealth ? Nope. Its Contractors have to profit though even if those profits are not in their Aerospace devision.

Lockheed Martin couldn't survive on Aerospace funding alone, it relies on defense Contracts to make up for the losses and cost overruns its sees in its shrinking Aerospace division

So, not against Govt spending but I am against wasteful spending, spending on investments that are obviously going to fail ( Green jobs ) and the corruption and croney Capitalism that massive stimulus seems to breed.

From a investment point of view Stimulus is a bad idea. For ex, funding labor with bonds that are purchased with private sector Capital reroutes that Capital into a investment that has little to no return

I also think its irresponsible to ignore as an indicator investor reaction to policy changes, but fiscal stimulus does just that.

If we introduce large expansive fiscal initiatives and we start investors shopping offshore for yields or Corporate capital expenditures falling ( more than they already are ) then its time to stop and try something else.

Japan stuck to Keynesianism like it was their religion. That level of ideological loyalty in a ruling Political party is dangerous and irresponsible.
 
I'm not against public sector spending or deficit spending nor am I a advocate for returning to the Gold standard.

Govt funding has its place and if done right can lead to innovative technologies and extraordinary accomplishments and yes, economic growth

My Father was a retired NASA engineer and worked on the Appolo missions so I have a soft spot for the Aerospace community

That kind of funding does more than just get us to the moon 6 times or put rovers on Mars. It inspires young people to pursue carreers in Math and Science and eventually become our next generation of Aerospace engineers or even Astronauts.

Is NASA's primary objective to pursue profits and wealth ? Nope. Its Contractors have to profit though even if those profits are not in their Aerospace devision.

Lockheed Martin couldn't survive on Aerospace funding alone, it relies on defense Contracts to make up for the losses and cost overruns its sees in its shrinking Aerospace division

So, not against Govt spending but I am against wasteful spending, spending on investments that are obviously going to fail ( Green jobs ) and the corruption and croney Capitalism that massive stimulus seems to breed.

Crony capitalism is never a good idea, of course. But poor investments are a government's job. NASA bred a lot of great innovations, but going to the moon was never going to be a profitable endeavor on its own. The kind of basic research that the government funds is not profitable on its own. It's not the government's job to make a profit, it's the government's job to keep society running, and quite often that means doing things that the profit-driven private sector would never do.

Wasteful is in the eyes of the beholder. You obviously don't like the Green Initiative, but if those resources aren't otherwise being used, then nothing is being wasted. That wasteful government spending might not have led to profits, but it did lead to some innovations, and it employed some people, including scientists and engineers, which is important. If you don't keep your big brains employed, then you lose them. And in the end, we are going to need that technology anyway.

At the very worst, government spending is only "wasted" for one round of spending. After that, money is in people's hands, and they spend money the way they always do. That in itself is stimulative. Proper investment is undertaken by the private sector in order to earn those dollars. If you want the money that I earn (or just get from the government), then invest in something that I'm likely to buy. The private sector is very efficient at doing that - they convince us to spend our money on all sorts of junk that we don't need. They don't need any more help, all they need is for us to spend more money.

From a investment point of view Stimulus is a bad idea. For ex, funding labor with bonds that are purchased with private sector Capital reroutes that Capital into a investment that has little to no return

But those bonds don't reroute anything. Nobody opts for the tiny return on bonds over investment IF that investment was going to happen anyway. If the yield on bonds was 10%, then you might have an argument.

I also think its irresponsible to ignore as an indicator investor reaction to policy changes, but fiscal stimulus does just that.

If we introduce large expansive fiscal initiatives and we start investors shopping offshore for yields or Corporate capital expenditures falling ( more than they already are ) then its time to stop and try something else.

If we actually went forward with any large, expansive fiscal initiatives, then investors would be staying right here, doing whatever they could to earn those dollars. You completely overstate what our government spends in the way of stimulus.

Those offshore funds are available to invest anywhere in the world. So why aren't they investing? It's because the demand isn't there, and they don't want to lose their investment.

Japan stuck to Keynesianism like it was their religion. That level of ideological loyalty in a ruling Political party is dangerous and irresponsible.

No, they didn't. If they were truly Keynesian, they would never have raised their consumption tax. They shouldn't even have a consumption tax in the first place.

I don't really know what Japan has done with their government spending, but if they are spending it at the top instead of at the bottom, that isn't Keynesian at all. Spending at the top is more supply-side than anything. Spending at the bottom is stimulus spending. If their debt has gone to propping up banks (as much of our debt went in response to the crisis), that isn't Keynesian, because it's not stimulative. And I suspect that that is where much of their spending has gone.
 
Crony capitalism is never a good idea, of course. But poor investments are a government's job. NASA bred a lot of great innovations, but going to the moon was never going to be a profitable endeavor on its own. The kind of basic research that the government funds is not profitable on its own. It's not the government's job to make a profit, it's the government's job to keep society running, and quite often that means doing things that the profit-driven private sector would never do.

Wasteful is in the eyes of the beholder. You obviously don't like the Green Initiative, but if those resources aren't otherwise being used, then nothing is being wasted. That wasteful government spending might not have led to profits, but it did lead to some innovations, and it employed some people, including scientists and engineers, which is important. If you don't keep your big brains employed, then you lose them. And in the end, we are going to need that technology anyway.

At the very worst, government spending is only "wasted" for one round of spending. After that, money is in people's hands, and they spend money the way they always do. That in itself is stimulative. Proper investment is undertaken by the private sector in order to earn those dollars. If you want the money that I earn (or just get from the government), then invest in something that I'm likely to buy. The private sector is very efficient at doing that - they convince us to spend our money on all sorts of junk that we don't need. They don't need any more help, all they need is for us to spend more money.



But those bonds don't reroute anything. Nobody opts for the tiny return on bonds over investment IF that investment was going to happen anyway. If the yield on bonds was 10%, then you might have an argument.



If we actually went forward with any large, expansive fiscal initiatives, then investors would be staying right here, doing whatever they could to earn those dollars. You completely overstate what our government spends in the way of stimulus.

Those offshore funds are available to invest anywhere in the world. So why aren't they investing? It's because the demand isn't there, and they don't want to lose their investment.



No, they didn't. If they were truly Keynesian, they would never have raised their consumption tax. They shouldn't even have a consumption tax in the first place.

I don't really know what Japan has done with their government spending, but if they are spending it at the top instead of at the bottom, that isn't Keynesian at all. Spending at the top is more supply-side than anything. Spending at the bottom is stimulus spending. If their debt has gone to propping up banks (as much of our debt went in response to the crisis), that isn't Keynesian, because it's not stimulative. And I suspect that that is where much of their spending has gone.

Well, if anything the last few post prove that you and I can have a thoughtful and civil conversation without resorting to ad hominems

Thats progress.

I read on one of these threads that you were a attorney ?

Im a bit of a pragmatic and its most likely because Ive spent the better part of the last 30 years designing, building, troubleshooting and repairing electronics ( PLC's, VFD's, mulit-channel amplifiers, switch mode power supplies and even the occasional flat screen to help out a friend or a family member )

Ive also installed and programmed large BAS ( Building Automation Systems and Energy Management Systems ) comm property and server farms and process controls in the Petro-chemical industry

All the controllers that I rely on to maintain a desired ( temp, pressures, humidity, frequency ) use a feedback mechanism to modify the output of the controller

So if I want to maintain 50% RH ( Setpoint ) in a Customers data center I monitor space humidity ( process variable ) with a hygrometer that feeds back a analog signal thats proportional to the RH% to the front end ( primary controller)

So if my setpoint is 50% and the actual RH% in that room is 30%, the the controller outputs to a steam generator in proportion to the error ( Set point minus space temp ) increasing RH % until it reaches setpoint again.

Sure there's more to it, PID tuning to mitigate overshoot and hunting but regardless that feedback loop is absolutely necessary to maintain a accurate and reliable end result

So why would we discount and ignore feedback mechanisms like investor reactions to bad or good policy when devising a strategy for economic growth or deciding on whether or not to change course ?

If we implement some unprecedented fiscal initiative, doesn't it make sense to closely monitor its effectiveness via the feedback mechanisms that are inherent to all market economies?

And if it nots effective and we do start seeing capital investment heading out of the US shouldn't we change course?
 
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Well, if anything the last few post prove that you and I can have a thoughtful and civil conversation without resorting to ad hominems

Thats progress.

I read on one of these threads that you were a attorney ?

Im a bit of a pragmatic and its most likely because Ive spent the better part of the last 30 years designing, building, troubleshooting and repairing electronics ( PLC's, VFD's, mulit-channel amplifiers, switch mode power supplies and even the occasional flat screen to help out a friend or a family member )

Ive also installed and programmed large BAS ( Building Automation Systems and Energy Management Systems ) comm property and server farms and process controls in the Petro-chemical industry

All the controllers that I rely on to maintain a desired ( temp, pressures, humidity, frequency ) use a feedback mechanism to modify the output of the controller

So if I want to maintain 50% RH ( Setpoint ) in a Customers data center I monitor space humidity ( process variable ) with a hygrometer that feeds back a analog signal thats proportional to the RH% to the front end ( primary controller)

So if my setpoint is 50% and the actual RH% in that room is 30%, the the controller outputs to a steam generator in proportion to the error ( Set point minus space temp ) increasing RH % until it reaches setpoint again.

Sure there's more to it, PID tuning to mitigate overshoot and hunting but regardless that feedback loop is absolutely necessary to maintain a accurate and reliable end result

So why would we discount and ignore feedback mechanisms like investor reactions to bad or good policy when devising a strategy for economic growth or deciding on whether or not to change course ?

If we implement some unprecedented fiscal initiative, doesn't it make sense to closely monitor its effectiveness via the feedback mechanisms that are inherent to all market economies?

And if it nots effective and we do start seeing capital investment heading out of the US shouldn't we change course?


I agree. Any policy prescription enacted should embody a review and revision component. But they seldom so - on a formal level, and inherent to the program in question.

There are a number of reasons for that. Practical, reasonable reasons in some cases. Political reasons in some cases. Perverse, dysfunctional reasons in some cases.

But the largest reason is that the systems you are dealing with for RH and suchlike are many orders of magnitude simpler than our political and economic systems. Way more controllable, with variation far more easily diagnosed.

Yes... we should pay close attention to the results. And we should do our level best to judge how directly those results are tied to the original actions. And... we should recognize that a most excellent prescription might have been boogered by outside factors. A sudden discover of vast stores of nickel ore in Chile. A scandal in Germany that threatens political stability. A change in Federal law in some related area that shifts incentives in some substantive way. Or some other 'butterfly effect' - the source of which we'll likely never apprehend.
 
Well, if anything the last few post prove that you and I can have a thoughtful and civil conversation without resorting to ad hominems

Thats progress.

I've always been willing to debate, as long as it doesn't turn into "liberal this, liberal that."

I read on one of these threads that you were a attorney ?

I am.


...So why would we discount and ignore feedback mechanisms like investor reactions to bad or good policy when devising a strategy for economic growth or deciding on whether or not to change course ?

I'm not ignoring feedback mechanisms at all. We just disagree on what that feedback mechanism is.

If we implement some unprecedented fiscal initiative, doesn't it make sense to closely monitor its effectiveness via the feedback mechanisms that are inherent to all market economies?

And if it nots effective and we do start seeing capital investment heading out of the US shouldn't we change course?

Of course we should change course, if what we are doing is wrong. But Keynesianism isn't wrong, and it does work.

If you tell me that you can row your rowboat through the water by using oars, it makes sense that it should work, and it does. But if I politically drop your anchor, then claim that your rowing is ineffective when you can't move your boat, who is at fault? Were you wrong about rowing being an effective way to propel a boat? Of course not.

I think we have made a pretty solid mathematical case that there is a certain amount of federal deficit spending necessary, every year, to make up for natural demand leakages. Politically, in this country and at this time, the number of people that understand this are greatly outnumbered by people who think that the country is in real debt and can't afford to deficit spend. So we get a too-small amount of deficit spending, and only that because some in congress are protecting their own particular favorite programs from the axe. Some won't hear of cutting defense, while others won't hear of cutting SS, while others won't hear of cutting unemployment benefits. Luckily, it adds up to enough deficit spending to keep the economy from contracting - in most years.

Nobody in Congress (that I'm aware of) is pro-deficit because they understand its importance to the economy. But there are a ton of politicians that are pushing for cuts, and even a balanced budget amendment. That is the anchor. If deficit spending isn't large enough to fill the demand gap, then the economy doesn't do well; that's when you claim that deficit spending is ineffective. Well, no, there just isn't enough of it. Especially in recession years, when we need a quick increase.
 
Yes, I would tend to agree... all else being equal. But, for one thing, we don't always get to choose our current position. But we do get to (must, actually) choose our next step.

The fascinating thing about economics is the complexity and the dynamic nature of the issues. I studied Economic History in grad school, and absolutely appreciate the role a historical perspective plays in formulating good policy. At the same time... there are no direct analogues. The old saw about 'history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes' is still true.

That said, I believe that we're gonna be forced to address the topic somehow. The notions of negative interest rates, helicopter money, and/or guaranteed minimum income are not being discussed currently out of the blue. Now... none of those may end up being THE solution. Or maybe each of them will be PART of the solution. But I suspect the future will look more like Denmark than Rwanda. And if you have hope for the advancement of the species... I'd imagine you would prefer that.
FWIW Rwanda's debt to GDP is 33.7% which is lower than Denmark's 47.2% and much lower than US's 73.6%. On the other hand, Rwanda and the US both like low taxes-21.9% of GDP for Rwanda and 18.1% for the US (versus 55.6% for Denmark). Rwanda and the US are basically the same on income inequality GINI.
I don't think that anyone in the US wants the across the board, for all incomes, taxes of Denmark. As long as we want to have government spending close to Denmark we shouldn't have taxes like Rwanda.
 
Is the helicopter over my workplace as we speak?
I might have to leave early.

YOU'll be able to spot it easily enough, it will have a picture of Hillary on one side and Bernie on the other. If you scrape away the paint, you'll find pictures of Castro and Chavez...
 
Godammit! ;)


Its called humor. Maybe not good humor but humor. And now I want ice cream for some reason.

So the $300 - $600 incentive that Bush and Obama gave us back in '08 was "helicopter money" if I'm getting the gist of things. Though that was more money literal.
I think the real issue with these kinds of "incentives" if that is even the right word is that by the time they happen its too little too late. If an economy is getting a little rocky but not already in the toilet then sure, it might help people spend money on other things when they don't have to worry about keeping their family fed for a bit. But when things are horrendous, any extra money is "catch up" money which doesn't really help anyone except utility companies and their ilk. Or, if there is extra money, it is being saved while families sit and wait to see which direction the economy is going to go in.

This is a tough one to poll to, because people will rarely say "free" stuff is bad if there is a chance they are the receivers of "free" stuff. Its like holding an ice cream cone up to a kid and saying "Would it be bad for me to give this to you?"

That's just my two Abrahams.

You mean the payments that were just advances on our tax returns????
 
[/B]

I agree. Any policy prescription enacted should embody a review and revision component. But they seldom so - on a formal level, and inherent to the program in question.

There are a number of reasons for that. Practical, reasonable reasons in some cases. Political reasons in some cases. Perverse, dysfunctional reasons in some cases.

But the largest reason is that the systems you are dealing with for RH and suchlike are many orders of magnitude simpler than our political and economic systems. Way more controllable, with variation far more easily diagnosed.

Yes... we should pay close attention to the results. And we should do our level best to judge how directly those results are tied to the original actions. And... we should recognize that a most excellent prescription might have been boogered by outside factors. A sudden discover of vast stores of nickel ore in Chile. A scandal in Germany that threatens political stability. A change in Federal law in some related area that shifts incentives in some substantive way. Or some other 'butterfly effect' - the source of which we'll likely never apprehend.

Washington's been ignoring those inherent feedback mechanisms for the last 8 years.
 
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