Heads up...

[jnug]

Please consider my logic in post #43. Perhaps I'm wrong, but that's the way it played-out with the Dems in the Senate with DACA, last year.

No it didn't. What you missed in that mess was that the real issue was not the Wall. The real issue was not the Wall even for Donald and it certainly was not for Senate Republicans. The real issue was Steven Millers draconian merit system.

The Dems were willing to give up the Wall for DACA but not if a bill included Miller's draconian restructuring of legal immigration. The only bill that got even close to passage was the DACA for Wall Bill, the one without Millers ridiculous system. That Bill got as close as 6 votes from passage before Trump called the GOP Senators on the carpet and demanded they defeat it. The bill that got the fewest votes....the bill Trump wanted that had Miller's ridiculous system in it. It only garnered 39 yes votes.

That sequence of events should have told you how much Trump actually cares about his Wall. He could have had it and turned it down! This is entirely, ALL about his silly base and his willingness to bend to their will. While Trump struts like a peacock, he is the weakest President in my living memory.

 

[justabubba]

I don't think it changes anything.

The bill is just a show for the cameras, so the Republicans can look good, and blame the Democrats.

nope. can't happen

tRump has already publicly declared he accepts responsibility for the tRump shutdown
it is his to own

 

[Chomsky]

You can't take the words out of Trump's mouth. He said he would own the shutdown without qualification.

Plus you are expecting that the calculus changes and Trump will not be held to accounts for a shutdown while at the same time forgetting that as late as today, Ryan and McConnell thought that Trump would sign the CR and they said so publicly. Do you actually think anybody will believe they were just winging it? Where do you think they got the idea that Trump would sign? Everything changed only after Trump called Rush. Given the dynamics, I doubt anything has changed with regard to the calculus partly because Trump has been flip flopping all over the map.

We shall see. I'm just hazarding a guess. But remember, the House produced a budget with the money for the wall. Now the Dems will be clearly standing in the way of the budget. That's a very simple & easy to understand message, regardless of Trump's earlier words.

But hey, I could be wrong.

 

[DiAnna]

Grow-up in a large family of Polish & Italian immigrants all living in close proximity, many in the same buildings, and I assure you - you will develop antennae highly attuned to emotive response!

:lol: I love that! Always wanted a large, close family; this made me smile.

 

[Chomsky]

No it didn't. What you missed in that mess was that the real issue was not the Wall. The real issue was not the Wall even for Donald and it certainly was not for Senate Republicans. The real issue was Steven Millers draconian merit system.

The Dems were willing to give up the Wall for DACA but not if a bill included Miller's draconian restructuring of legal immigration. The only bill that got even close to passage was the DACA for Wall Bill, the one without Millers ridiculous system. That Bill got as close as 6 votes from passage before Trump called the GOP Senators on the carpet and demanded they defeat it. The bill that got the fewest votes....the bill Trump wanted that had Miller's ridiculous system in it. It only garnered 39 yes votes.

That sequence of events should have told you how much Trump actually cares about his Wall. He could have had it and turned it down! This is entirely, ALL about his silly base and his willingness to bend to their will. While Trump struts like a peacock, he is the weakest President in my living memory.

I was just using that shutdown as an example. It was over DACA.

And it was a simple, easy concept to sell (Dem obstruction of a House bill), so it was effective causing Schumer to quickly concede.

This time the Dems stopping the bill will be another easy and simple concept to sell. Whether it will be a successful sale, we shall see.

Remember, I'm not thinking in terms of right or wrong, legalities, or any of that. I'm trying to give analysis of the public perception politics. And in my mind, it's an easy sale to blame the Dems for obstructing a valid House bill.

Now after Jan 3rd, in my mind the calculus changes again because the Dems can then generate budget bill themselves. So they can lay blame at where the bill stops after it leaves the House, be it the Senate or the President's desk.

 

[jnug]

We shall see. I'm just hazarding a guess. But remember, the House produced a budget with the money for the wall. Now the Dems will be clearly standing in the way of the budget. That's a very simple & easy to understand message, regardless of Trump's earlier words.

But hey, I could be wrong.

I would buy that if:
a) Trump had not uttered the words
b) flip flopped at least four times in the space of 24 hours
c) left himself no way to bring the government back up after shutdown without eating major crow in January. I just don't see the Dems moving heaven and earth to bail him out and they are NOT under any circumstances going to give him the $5B that the House Bill has. The Dems have already put themselves out on the end of a plank on that one and are not going to turn around and saw it off! Unfortunately for Donald I don't think there is time to either bring back the original CR in reconciliation or even bring up a new bill that throws Donald something like a $1.3B bone. Donald has boxed himself completely into a corner. Everybody knows it and there will be hell to pay for Schumer with the Dems if he lefts a single finger to get Donald out of his own mess. The entire party will throw Schumer off a cliff which might actually not be the worst thing that could happen to the Dem party.

Keep in mind this is all happening while the market is tanking, Whitaker is proving to be as corrupt as his resume seemed to indicate, Mattis is leaving and Mueller is closing in. So Donald does not exactly have the wind at his back and blowing in Schumer's face either.

 

[Chomsky]

:lol: I love that! Always wanted a large, close family; this made me smile.

Well, there are some advantages. For instance, you learn to eat fast and shower fast! :2razz:

 

[Chomsky]

I would buy that if:
a) Trump had not uttered the words
b) flip flopped at least four times in the space of 24 hours
c) left himself no way to bring the government back up after shutdown without eating major crow in January. I just don't see the Dems moving heaven and earth to bail him out and they are NOT under any circumstances going to give him the $5B that the House Bill has. The Dems have already put themselves out on the end of a plank on that one and are not going to turn around and saw it off! Unfortunately for Donald I don't think there is time to either bring back the original CR in reconciliation or even bring up a new bill that throws Donald something like a $1.3B bone. Donald has boxed himself completely into a corner. Everybody knows it and there will be hell to pay for Schumer with the Dems if he lefts a single finger to get Donald out of his own mess. The entire party will throw Schumer off a cliff which might actually not be the worst thing that could happen to the Dem party.

Keep in mind this is all happening while the market is tanking, Whitaker is proving to be as corrupt as his resume seemed to indicate, Mattis is leaving and Mueller is closing in. So Donald does not exactly have the wind at his back and blowing in Schumer's face either.

Oh, I agree here. It's going to be a stand-off. Dare I say, a Mexican stand-off? :lamo

 

[MovingPictures]

If it goes to shutdown, I believe it changes the political blame calculus. Check-out my logic in post #43 above, if you will?

There's one big difference between now and last January: Trump has already stated on camera this is a purposeful move on his part to get his fantasy wall.

Everyone knows it's the Republicans that are making demands, not the Democrats, and they will ultimately be blamed.

 

[MovingPictures]

I was just using that shutdown as an example. It was over DACA.

And it was a simple, easy concept to sell (Dem obstruction of a House bill), so it was effective causing Schumer to quickly concede.

This time the Dems stopping the bill will be another easy and simple concept to sell. Whether it will be a successful sale, we shall see.

Remember, I'm not thinking in terms of right or wrong, legalities, or any of that. I'm trying to give analysis of the public perception politics. And in my mind, it's an easy sale to blame the Dems for obstructing a valid House bill.

Now after Jan 3rd, in my mind the calculus changes again because the Dems can then generate budget bill themselves. So they can lay blame at where the bill stops after it leaves the House, be it the Senate or the President's desk.

And that's the thing, the closer we get to jan 3rd, the more Republicans lose their leverage.

 

[Hawkeye10]

Good he will send his Presidency down in flames even faster.

I think that there are probably a bunch of us who happy to see that he has decided to demand to be treated with the respect and honor that the office of the Presidency of the United States of America demands.

We are plum out of ****ing around time.

The New Chinese Empire is coming.

 

[jnug]

I think that there are probably a bunch of us who happy to see that he has decided to demand to be treated with the respect and honor that the office of the Presidency of the United States of America demands.

We are plum out of ****ing around time.

The New Chinese Empire is coming.

Respect! Respect being driven out of Syria by the likes of Erdogan! Letting Saudi guide our Middle East Policy! Cutting the legs out from under our negotiations with the Taliban! That is one weird concept of respect.

 

[PoliSciXtina]

Hey, don't hate on Twitter. I get breaking news on Twitter before it even shows up on TV, and from verified accounts, they've never been wrong. Just faster.

Twitter is the **** for politics. You should try it.

I recently got a Twitter account just for the politics. You’re so right stuff shows up there first!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[poweRob]

And why do we care about this Twitter account?

I just follow the guy and he often has his thumb on the pulse of politics. I dont' think anyone is asking you to care for that account.

 

[poweRob]

I only asked because the last time I put up a tweet, the mod on duty asked me to link it.

I would but where I'm at right now has a web-nanny that blocks twitter. Could do it from my phone perhaps but that's downright annoying.

 

[poweRob]

Hey, don't hate on Twitter. I get breaking news on Twitter before it even shows up on TV, and from verified accounts, they've never been wrong. Just faster.

Twitter is the **** for politics. You should try it.

It's absolutely true. I have disdain for social media for the most part but twitter... that's actually useful.

 

[Superfly]

It's absolutely true. I have disdain for social media for the most part but twitter... that's actually useful.

Yeah, I don't use social media much. I have FB for keeping in touch with distant friends and family, and for the obligatory funny memes, but I don't do anything with the other platforms, like Instagram, Snap Chat or anything like that.

 

[beefheart]

It's absolutely true. I have disdain for social media for the most part but twitter... that's actually useful.

I don't have any twitter reader software, I pretty much google it. I have a twitter handle, but it rarely gets used, I never really got into twitter, but there is a lot of good stuff there when stuff is happening rapidly.

 

[justabubba]

Oh, I agree here. It's going to be a stand-off. Dare I say, a Mexican stand-off? :lamo

and mexico will pay for that stand-off

 

[justabubba]

I think that there are probably a bunch of us who happy to see that he has decided to demand to be treated with the respect and honor that the office of the Presidency of the United States of America demands.

We are plum out of ****ing around time.

The New Chinese Empire is coming.

one is never able to COMMAND respect

i had previously assumed everyone who had outgrown their teenage years knew that reality

 

[poweRob]

I don't have any twitter reader software, I pretty much google it. I have a twitter handle, but it rarely gets used, I never really got into twitter, but there is a lot of good stuff there when stuff is happening rapidly.

It's not a complicate very deep software system. Learn to use lists and set it up to break apart your interests. I have a list for politics then I put everyone I follow who talks politics in there. Then a list for Tech and those I follow on tech go in that list and a list for Open Source Software and so and and so on. Then when I want to just read tweets on one topic I just choose to read that list and I'm not being bombarded by off topic conversations.

 

[beefheart]

It's not a complicate very deep software system. Learn to use lists and set it up to break apart your interests. I have a list for politics then I put everyone I follow who talks politics in there. Then a list for Tech and those I follow on tech go in that list and a list for Open Source Software and so and and so on. Then when I want to just read tweets on one topic I just choose to read that list and I'm not being bombarded by off topic conversations.

Yeah, there are some good apps for it. But, I work at home, the work laptop has 2 extra monitors, I have my android tablet there, and 12 feet away I have my PC with the spazzy new 32 inch 4k monitor, and a few feet away from that is the TV with CNN and MSNBC, plus, I have Alexa streaming KFI Los Angeles, then KTAR then NPR.

Some days I just have to turn it all off and listen to Gilbert Gottfried's Amazing Colossal Podcast to get my faith in humanity back! (oh, and a big jar full of prescription Dextroamphetimine so it all makes sense!)

 

[JustHanging]

.......

 

[poweRob]

Yeah, there are some good apps for it. But, I work at home, the work laptop has 2 extra monitors, I have my android tablet there, and 12 feet away I have my PC with the spazzy new 32 inch 4k monitor, and a few feet away from that is the TV with CNN and MSNBC, plus, I have Alexa streaming KFI Los Angeles, then KTAR then NPR.

Some days I just have to turn it all off and listen to Gilbert Gottfried's Amazing Colossal Podcast to get my faith in humanity back! (oh, and a big jar full of prescription Dextroamphetimine so it all makes sense!)

And one helluva tan just from all the screens' offput alone.

 

[dobieg]

So any news come out or are liberals once again standing around holding those limp peckers in their hands with that dumbfound expression on their face?