It's not the vote I'm talking about, but the politics.
When a bill couldn't get out of the House, Trump had little political force to apply. Budgets are produced in the House, ratified in the Senate, and signed into law by the President. There was little Trump could do to force the issue, little to really blame. He gets a budget from Congress without wall funding, and if he doesn't sign it, it's on him. He takes the heat.
Now, the House sent a bill with the wall funding (and disaster funding) to the Senate. If the Dems hold it up, it's now clearly all on them. They take the heat.
This last example is what happened to the Dems with the last shutdown over DACA, and it did not end well for the Dems.
Before, I was sure Trump would get burned for a shutdown. Now, I'm thinking the Dems may. I never thought a bill with the wall funding would leave the House. Now we shall see how this plays-out.