• This is a political forum that is non-biased/non-partisan and treats every person's position on topics equally. This debate forum is not aligned to any political party. In today's politics, many ideas are split between and even within all the political parties. Often we find ourselves agreeing on one platform but some topics break our mold. We are here to discuss them in a civil political debate. If this is your first visit to our political forums, be sure to check out the RULES. Registering for debate politics is necessary before posting. Register today to participate - it's free!

Hawaii, Alaska and Wyoming primaries coming up (13 + 16 August)

Tender Branson

Tender Branson

DP Veteran
Joined
Jun 3, 2021
Messages
6,767
Reaction score
4,105
Location
🇦🇹 Austria 🇦🇹
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Progressive
The Hawaii primary is today, for Governor, Lt. Governor, Senate and House.

The D primary for Governor will be won by Josh Green, the R primary by Duke Aiona (if there are no surprises).

The US Senate election primary will be won by Sen. Brian Schatz and it doesn't matter who the Rs nominate.

The general election in November is solid D.

en.wikipedia.org

2022 Hawaii gubernatorial election - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org

en.wikipedia.org

2022 United States Senate election in Hawaii - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org

en.wikipedia.org

2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Hawaii - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org

On Tuesday, the Alaska & Wyoming primaries will take place.

In Alaska, there's a special general election for US House too with Sarah Palin. This could be as close as the MN-01 special election last Tuesday.

And in WY, Liz Cheney will likely be voted out in the R primary (she trails by a lot in the polls).
 
Tender Branson said:
And in WY, Liz Cheney will likely be voted out in the R primary (she trails by a lot in the polls).
Click to expand...
Absolutely correct and well deserved for all of her work despite her constituents' calls, letters, and emails literally begging her to stop.

Voters in Wyoming wanted THEIR voices heard in DC - not hers.

Liz Cheyney is an absolute disgrace. For 6 years and 3 campaigns, she lied repeatedly to the people of the great state of Wyoming. Liz was up on stage and on camera front and center spewing rhetoric and lies on behalf of the democrats -- perhaps in the hopes of getting a gig in Hollywood and $$$.

Bye, bye Liz Cheyney. Thank God your true colors came out in your 3rd term before you made it to the Senate or Wyoming Governor. I hope that the people of Wyoming never forgive and never forget. NEVER return Liz to any elected office whatsoever.

Liz let all 185,732 (67%) people that voted for her down. She represented ~600,000 people in WY.

Good riddance.
 
Why would holier than thou Liz Cheyney list O. J. Simpson... "[a] convicted felon" under "Endorsements"? This is bizarre.

1660386650580.png

en.wikipedia.org

2022 United States House of Representatives election in Wyoming - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org

As for you democrats, you certainly turned on democrat Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia very quickly (and Sinema) calling them traitors and other names b/c they would not support the original $5 trillion bbb, or a lesser dollar version of $2 trillion.

Instead, they both were bribed to vote YEAH on Biden's IRA bill.
 
jcgriff2 said:
Absolutely correct and well deserved for all of her work despite her constituents' calls, letters, and emails literally begging her to stop.

Voters in Wyoming wanted THEIR voices heard in DC - not hers.

Liz Cheyney is an absolute disgrace. For 6 years and 3 campaigns, she lied repeatedly to the people of the great state of Wyoming. Liz was up on stage and on camera front and center spewing rhetoric and lies on behalf of the democrats -- perhaps in the hopes of getting a gig in Hollywood and $$$.

Bye, bye Liz Cheyney. Thank God your true colors came out in your 3rd term before you made it to the Senate or Wyoming Governor. I hope that the people of Wyoming never forgive and never forget. NEVER return Liz to any elected office whatsoever.

Liz let all 185,732 (67%) people that voted for her down. She represented ~600,000 people in WY.

Good riddance.
Click to expand...

Yes, she represents 580.000 WY residents ... of which not all are Trumplicans.

Republicans usually win around 2/3 of the vote there (the most heavily R state in the US), but Cheney will get some 30-40% on Tuesday.

So, with her third of Republicans that are still supporting her and the third of Democrats and others who are critical of Trump, one can say that WY people combined are over 50% critical of Trump when it comes to Jan. 6th and his other perversions in office and out of it.
 
Turnout preview for Hawaii today:

Hawaii conducts its elections by mail ballots, with only few people voting in-person.

256.000 ballots were mailed back until yesterday + 4.000 in-person votes.

This is expected to rise to around a combined 300.000 by poll-closing today at 7pm local time.

In the 2018 primary, about 286.000 votes were cast - so turnout this year is similar.

It is roughly 40% of Hawaii registered voters (800.000).

That is not bad for a primary, but Hawaii always ranks among the lowest-turnout states in November general elections (because it always votes D and there's no competitive elections).
 
Hawaii has a 12-hour time difference to Austria.

So, when polls close at 7pm there local time, it will be 7am breakfast time tomorrow morning here. I actually breakfast at 9am on a Sunday, so there should be already some results then.
 
Almost 90% counted in Hawaii:

Current Lt. Gov. Josh Green has won the D primary for Governor easily and will face Duke Aiona (R) - who was also Lt. Gov. once - in November.

Aiona has run for Governor of Hawaii in every recent general election, but Hawaii is way too D these days for Rs to win.

For Senate, US Sen. Brian Schatz (D) has won his primary with over 90% and will face a Republican nobody in November.

www.nytimes.com

Hawaii Primary Election Results (Published 2022)

See full results and maps from the Hawaii primary elections.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
 
jcgriff2 said:
Absolutely correct and well deserved for all of her work despite her constituents' calls, letters, and emails literally begging her to stop.

Voters in Wyoming wanted THEIR voices heard in DC - not hers.

Liz Cheyney is an absolute disgrace. For 6 years and 3 campaigns, she lied repeatedly to the people of the great state of Wyoming. Liz was up on stage and on camera front and center spewing rhetoric and lies on behalf of the democrats -- perhaps in the hopes of getting a gig in Hollywood and $$$.

Bye, bye Liz Cheyney. Thank God your true colors came out in your 3rd term before you made it to the Senate or Wyoming Governor. I hope that the people of Wyoming never forgive and never forget. NEVER return Liz to any elected office whatsoever.

Liz let all 185,732 (67%) people that voted for her down. She represented ~600,000 people in WY.

Good riddance.
Click to expand...

Could have just typed that the people of WY have basically said "**** Integrity" and saved some keystrokes.
 
Along with the regular primaries for Governor, US Senate, House etc. - Alaska will have the special general election for US House tomorrow to fill the remaining few months of the late Rep. Don Young (R).

This US House seat is statewide (at-large) and there are 2 Rs running (Sarah Palin & Nick Begich) and Democrat Mary Peltola.

Alaska uses IRV (instant runoff voting) tomorrow for the 1st time ever, meaning that a runoff is "built-into" the election tomorrow - with voters of the 3 candidates indicating their second choices on the ballot.

So, if you are voting for Begich, you can then indicate if Palin or Peltola is your second choice and so on.

In the next 10 days after the election, only the 1st count will be released. Only after all ballots have been received, counted and reviewed, the 2nd choices of the eliminated 3rd candidate will be redistributed to the remaining 2 candidates. This will happen after August 26 and will take until August 31. Only then will the winner be known.

But the first count should at least give us some clue about party strength and who will get eliminated as 3rd.

If Palin finishes 2nd and Begich gets eliminated, there is a chance that some of his voters selected Democratic candidate Peltola as their second choice and enable a Peltola victory over Palin. But that is a longshot, but possible according to polls.

If Palin gets eliminated, her voters are more reliable Republican and Begich would likely easily win the vote redistribution against Peltola.
 
Read more about the Alaska elections tomorrow here:

www.adn.com

Alaska’s first ranked choice election is on Tuesday. Here’s what you need to know.

Elections officials must count every ballot before tabulating ranked choice votes. That means the winner of the special U.S. House race — featuring Nick Begich III, Sarah Palin and Mary Peltola — won’t be known for at least two weeks.
www.adn.com www.adn.com

Unlike the June primary (which was conducted almost exclusively by mail due to organization stress and deadlines) - the elections tomorrow will be conducted almost exclusively in-person. 250.000 votes or more are expected in total, of which only 15.000 or so are mail ballots (people who requested a mail ballot).
 
My prediction for Alaska and Wyoming tomorrow:

AK

42% Peltola (D)
32% Palin (R)
25% Begich (R)
1% Write-ins

Redistribution of Begich and Write-in votes via IRV (results announced by 2 September):

51% Peltola (D) (+9)
49% Palin (R) (+17)

US Senate:

1. Murkowski (R)
2. Tshibaka (R)
3. Chesbro (D)
4. Blatchford (D)

WY

59% Hageman (R)
35% Cheney (R)
6% Others (R)
 
Considering Alaska is almost all in-person tomorrow + some early in-person voting and about 15.000 received mail ballots, there should be almost 99% counted by tomorrow night (local time).

Only a few mail ballots from the state + overseas will come in later (postmarked by election day).
 
 
Polls are closing in WY at 7pm local time (or 9pm NYC and 3am Vienna time).

Polls are closing in AK at 8pm local time (or midnight NYC and 6am Vienna time).
 
As expected, Liz Cheney goes down in 🔥 flames 🔥:

With almost everything counted in the Wyoming R primary for US House, Liz Cheney only gets 30% - while her opponent Harriet Hageman gets 66%. Other candidates get 4%.

In the governor race, no surprise, incumbent Republican governor Mark Gordon wins his primary easily and will easily win re-election in November.
 
Tender Branson said:
The Hawaii primary is today, for Governor, Lt. Governor, Senate and House.

The D primary for Governor will be won by Josh Green, the R primary by Duke Aiona (if there are no surprises).

The US Senate election primary will be won by Sen. Brian Schatz and it doesn't matter who the Rs nominate.

The general election in November is solid D.

en.wikipedia.org

2022 Hawaii gubernatorial election - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org

en.wikipedia.org

2022 United States Senate election in Hawaii - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org

en.wikipedia.org

2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Hawaii - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org

On Tuesday, the Alaska & Wyoming primaries will take place.

In Alaska, there's a special general election for US House too with Sarah Palin. This could be as close as the MN-01 special election last Tuesday.

And in WY, Liz Cheney will likely be voted out in the R primary (she trails by a lot in the polls).
Click to expand...

Hawaii's is in the D column. I'm shocked!
 
Ca. 50% counted in Alaska:

US House Special General Election

37% Mary Peltola (D)
33% Sarah Palin (R)
29% Nick Begich (R)
1% Write-ins

Begich seems to get eliminated, his voters 2nd choices (+ Write-in voters) will get redistributed to Peltola & Palin on August 31.

US Senate:

42% Lisa Murkowski (R)
42% Kelly Tshibaka (R)
6% Patricia Chesbro (D)
2% Buzz Kelley (R)

These 4 will advance to the November general election.

In the R governor primary, incumbent Republican governor Mike Dunleavy leads with 43%. Democrat Gara with 22%, Independent Bill Walker with 21% and Republican Charlie Pierce with 8% will head to the November general election.
 
With 60% counted, still roughly the same:

Alaska US House Special General Election

37% Mary Peltola (D)
33% Sarah Palin (R)
29% Nick Begich (R)
1% Write-ins

Pretty funny: given these results, in most states, Democratic candidate Peltola would be the winner with a plurality of votes. But Alaska uses Instant Runoff Voting now, so she'll probably lose to Palin when the Begich and Write-in votes are redistributed on August 31.
 
Tender Branson said:
With 60% counted, still roughly the same:

Alaska US House Special General Election

37% Mary Peltola (D)
33% Sarah Palin (R)
29% Nick Begich (R)
1% Write-ins

Pretty funny: given these results, in most states, Democratic candidate Peltola would be the winner with a plurality of votes. But Alaska uses Instant Runoff Voting now, so she'll probably lose to Palin when the Begich and Write-in votes are redistributed on August 31.
Click to expand...
What’s latest on the Senate in AK?
 
Alaska US House Special General Election

38% Mary Peltola (D)
32% Sarah Palin (R)
29% Nick Begich (R)
1% Write-ins

That is with 65% counted.

Based on previous elections where rural R-leaning areas were counted first, Peltola should gain ground with the remaining votes left to count, so she could end up at 40% or more.

For Palin and Begich, it is still not clear who will be eliminated so that the votes of the 3rd place finisher will get re-distributed. This can take a while, maybe even the full 2 weeks until overseas ballots are counted - if Palin/Begich remain so close together.
 
If the results end up like 40-31-28-1 for Peltola, she would need roughly 1/3 or more of Begich and Write-in voters second choices - when the votes are redistributed on August 31.

Not sure how likely that is ... Palin is toxic, but are Republican voters dumping her for a Democrat in their second choices ?

I guess not.

I think she wins the final redistribution by 53-47 or something.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom