Prediction? This is long winded. If you asked me in May I would have said Clinton in a landslide. That is what the numbers showed then. Today, they are even. Now I would throw the horse race numbers out, concentrate on the candidates favorable/unfavorable ratings, Folks usually do not vote for someone they dislike. But that is conventional wisdom which may or may not apply. Then look at the trend in the favorable/unfavorable ratings. Then keep track of each party’s base voters and the percentage of each that go to their nominee.
On 1 May Clinton was at 40% favorable, 54% unfavorable. Trump at 30% favorable, 64% unfavorable. That ten-point difference would indicate we were looking at a big Clinton win in November. But since then, back to today, Clinton is at 39% favorable, 54% unfavorable, basically no change at all over a three-month period of time. Trump today is at 37% favorable, 57% unfavorable, he has improved whereas Clinton has not. The trend indicates things may be going Trump’s way. Second party base voters, On 1 May, the Republicans had a slight one point advantage in their base vote 31-30, but when the independent lean Republican and independent lean Democrat were added that slight advantage disappeared to where the Democratic base plus leans had a 47-43 advantage. Today the parties are tied as to the base vote at 28% each of the total electorate and tied when including leans at 43%. Once again the trend would indicate a Republican or Trump advantage. Conventional wisdom again. In a normal year, not a unique one like this, all the numbers indicate up to this point a Trump win in the popular vote in November.
But then the intangibles. Clinton is very political savvy, sometimes too much. Trump on the other hand has been very political stupid at times. He has foot in mouth disease. Clinton has a solid political team and she will listen to them. Trump does not and even if he did, he wouldn’t listen to them anyway. He is his own man and he does and says things as they pop into his head. Trump gives the impression he is running for a host spot on a reality TV show instead of the presidency at times. Clinton has no charisma, her personality sucks, she grates on people, but even so she is running for the presidency. Independents pick this up even though they don’t like her and in the end, a bit more than half will hold their nose and vote for her, the candidate they detest the least.
So I finally have learned to throw out conventional wisdom and past historical references. Clinton wins the popular by around three to four points. If by some chance, Trump could learn to act presidential and cure his foot in mouth disease, he could win the popular vote. But I don’t expect him to change his act or cure his big trap. The numbers today say this election is Trump’s to lose, he is doing exactly that.
Then there is the electoral college where Clinton has a huge advantage. In the end the popular vote means nothing. Just ask Al Gore. In states where the lead is five points or better by either candidate, Clinton has a 269 to 191 lead. It takes 270 to win and 269 guarantees a tie. There are only six more states in which the race there is too close to call. The tossup states which Hillary would have to win just one of six to become the next president. So if I had to make a prediction 100 days out, Hillary Clinton will be our next president.