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Has Putin Lost Already?

Yes. If Russia is still standing in a year and Ukraine is still an armed camp under siege they will be winning. The storm will have been weathered and within Russia it will be understood they are in an existential struggle.

The Russians now understand they will never integrate with the west again. This changes everything for them. Unless Russia implodes it will be the west who’s increasingly isolated as the East, South, and Middle East have no issues dealing with Russia.

The enormous costs on European industry to keep this up will come to bear. LNG is simply not a competitive replacement for Russian energy. Of course, that would be assuming the Europeans would find a way to stop funding the Russian invasion, which they haven’t.
That isnt winning that is surviving a loss you need not have endured. Like shooting yourself in the foot while skeet shooting and claiming best score because you lived.
By that measure Italy and Japan won WW2 as they were still there. Germany got split in two so we can say they lost
 
That isnt winning that is surviving a loss you need not have endured. Like shooting yourself in the foot while skeet shooting and claiming best score because you lived.
By that measure Italy and Japan won WW2 as they were still there. Germany got split in two so we can say they lost

Russia is still advancing and holding Ukrainian territory however. Western arms and sanctions have not stopped this fact after the initial debacle of the Russian assault on Kiev (though the south and east is looking more and more secured for Russia) but it looks like following what can only be described as an amazingly incompetent operation the Russians have managed to retreat, rearm, and retake the offensive.

There is simply no way Ukraine can win this war unless the Russian war machine implodes, which is a possibility but not one that looks tremendously likely. The Ukrainians can fight until the Russians plead for terms, but this appears less and less likely and with zero chance of western sanctions relief short of Russia's unconditional surrender it appears likely that Russia will continue at least a stalemate. The real battle will be if Russia can keep functioning, and if they can they will be far stronger in a year.

Edit if the goalposts for Ukraine are restoration of full sovereignty over all its territory then I'd put more money on Russia "winning"
 
Russia is still advancing and holding Ukrainian territory however. Western arms and sanctions have not stopped this fact after the initial debacle of the Russian assault on Kiev (though the south and east is looking more and more secured for Russia) but it looks like following what can only be described as an amazingly incompetent operation the Russians have managed to retreat, rearm, and retake the offensive.

There is simply no way Ukraine can win this war unless the Russian war machine implodes, which is a possibility but not one that looks tremendously likely. The Ukrainians can fight until the Russians plead for terms, but this appears less and less likely and with zero chance of western sanctions relief short of Russia's unconditional surrender it appears likely that Russia will continue at least a stalemate. The real battle will be if Russia can keep functioning, and if they can they will be far stronger in a year.

Edit if the goalposts for Ukraine are restoration of full sovereignty over all its territory then I'd put more money on Russia "winning"
Diversion from the silly claim Russia wins the war by still existing at then end of a war they started noted

Ukraine as the country invaded can call surviving a win
The goalposts for Putin were a quick victory an establishment of a puppet regime and easy annexation of eastern Ukraine
His only remaining chance to claim of any kind of victory is annexing parts of eastern Ukraine

As Ukraine is being resupplied with armaments from western countries and Russia has had to stop production of many of theirs due to lack of parts it doenst look good at all for Putin
 
Diversion from the silly claim Russia wins the war by still existing at then end of a war they started noted

Ukraine as the country invaded can call surviving a win
The goalposts for Putin were a quick victory an establishment of a puppet regime and easy annexation of eastern Ukraine
His only remaining chance to claim of any kind of victory is annexing parts of eastern Ukraine

As Ukraine is being resupplied with armaments from western countries and Russia has had to stop production of many of theirs due to lack of parts it doenst look good at all for Putin

The goalposts for Putin were always notoriously vague. The idea of fully annexing Ukraine seems to be on the extreme end of the scale, and at this point the russians are taking more Ukrainian territory. As I said initially if full annexation is the metric then it doesn't appear Russia will be able to accomplish that.

The Russians are advancing today. The west has upped its pressure on russia to the maximum short of military engagement. If this fails to deter russia and russia is able to continue the offensive in spite of this (or even continue holding Ukrainian territory) then it would appear to have little real effect in the hot theater.

But this is only part of it.

If Russia's real enemies are seen to be NATO or the west/Antlanticism generally, then this special operation will be seen as the birth of a new order. The true multipolarity and the end of the unipolar 'end of history' dominance of the western world, which will then be seen as only one pole in the world. China, India, Africa will all continue strengthening ties with Russia for their own ends, and Europe will be subjected to paying a premium for energy until they either build enough LNG or nukes (years if not decades away) especially if the anti-coal movement doesn't die. Even the USA's allies in the Middle East, from Dubai to Ankara, aren't keen on distancing from Russia or joining some grand coalition with the west. Europe is still bankrolling this war through energy purchases.

There have been a lot of claims about the Russian war machine not being able to sustain itself, falling apart, etc, but the Russians are advancing today. In 6 months to a year the situation may be quite different. Yes, Russia may implode. But if it doesn't it, and it's Army hasn't disintegrated, it will be far stronger than it is right now even if it still is sitting on a demarcation line in Ukraine.

Russia doesn't control the world or try to. They're not the 'rules based order' people. Those are the people who have far more to lose. And strategically Russia surviving when all of those people are united against it and indeed building a new order outside of the "rules based" western world will be more of a loss for the west than the moral victory of half of Ukraine remaining independent.

If Russia implodes, different story. But nothing short of that will be a victory for the west, which is why the sanctions will never come off without regime change, which is why it's not happening.
 
Russia will win in the sense that it will take a bite out of Eastern Ukraine. The Donbas will be Russian, and Putin will get his land bridge to Crimea. Joe Biden can keep McDonald’s.
 
The goalposts for Putin were always notoriously vague. The idea of fully annexing Ukraine seems to be on the extreme end of the scale, and at this point the russians are taking more Ukrainian territory. As I said initially if full annexation is the metric then it doesn't appear Russia will be able to accomplish that.

The Russians are advancing today. The west has upped its pressure on russia to the maximum short of military engagement. If this fails to deter russia and russia is able to continue the offensive in spite of this (or even continue holding Ukrainian territory) then it would appear to have little real effect in the hot theater.

But this is only part of it.

If Russia's real enemies are seen to be NATO or the west/Antlanticism generally, then this special operation will be seen as the birth of a new order. The true multipolarity and the end of the unipolar 'end of history' dominance of the western world, which will then be seen as only one pole in the world. China, India, Africa will all continue strengthening ties with Russia for their own ends, and Europe will be subjected to paying a premium for energy until they either build enough LNG or nukes (years if not decades away) especially if the anti-coal movement doesn't die. Even the USA's allies in the Middle East, from Dubai to Ankara, aren't keen on distancing from Russia or joining some grand coalition with the west. Europe is still bankrolling this war through energy purchases.

There have been a lot of claims about the Russian war machine not being able to sustain itself, falling apart, etc, but the Russians are advancing today. In 6 months to a year the situation may be quite different. Yes, Russia may implode. But if it doesn't it, and it's Army hasn't disintegrated, it will be far stronger than it is right now even if it still is sitting on a demarcation line in Ukraine.

Russia doesn't control the world or try to. They're not the 'rules based order' people. Those are the people who have far more to lose. And strategically Russia surviving when all of those people are united against it and indeed building a new order outside of the "rules based" western world will be more of a loss for the west than the moral victory of half of Ukraine remaining independent.

If Russia implodes, different story. But nothing short of that will be a victory for the west, which is why the sanctions will never come off without regime change, which is why it's not happening.

Very astute post, especially the part about the unipolarity and this being the opening salvo in a war against the West and the Fukuyama “end of history” thesis with the West’s victory over fascism and communism. The Russians might call their response “Fuk u mama.”

I would just add that I think the 1999 NATO bombing of Belgrade was an object lesson for the Russians. So they’ll hold up the threat of their nukes as they rain terror and forcibly remove ethnic Ukrainians from the East while moving in Russians, as they did during the Soviet period and have repeated again most recently in Crimea. It will be Kosovo in spades, and seems to be a sort of thumb in the eye to NATO and the West. They’re really daring us to escalate, but must feel the West will want to put the skids to this war as soon as possible because they still consider us largely spineless and not capable of playing the long game.
 
As Ukraine is being resupplied with armaments from western countries and Russia has had to stop production of many of theirs due to lack of parts it doenst look good at all for Putin

Russia still has a lot of heavy weaponry, much more than Ukraine. Unless it receives armor and other heavy weaponry in large quantities, it will not be able to remove the Russians from Donbas. I don’t think the West will be willing to supply tanks and artillery in the quantities needed to kick the Russians out.
 
REBUILDING THE UKRAINIAN ECONOMY

Even if Russia succeeds in annexing Ukraine, is it a victory? The Soviet Union's invasion of Afghanistan failed. The invasion of Ukraine has exposed weaknesses in effectiveness and moral of Russia's armed forces. European countries, including far right governed Poland, can't do enough for Ukraine, sending money, weapons, and accepting millions of refugees.

I suspect that, as usual, Putin is thinking about his own personal future. And, I figure he is well due an "accident". (Which will not happen - I'm just wishing loudly.)

What might be the total value of assets that existed at the time that the Soviet Union ended and the assets were redistributed by both Yeltsin and Putin? That's a good question because those assets, upon seizure and resale, will become the funds necessary to rebuild the Ukraine destroyed by the Russians.

From here:

A guesstimate of the wealth of Russia’s oligarchs​

The authors used national economic data, household surveys, tax data on high-income earners available since 2008, and wealth rankings to estimate public, private, and offshore wealth and form a picture of the changes from the Soviet period. A discrepancy between the growth of trade surpluses and that of net foreign assets, for example, signals capital flight.

The paper estimates the offshore wealth held by rich Russians at around $800 billion as of 2015, or around three times larger than the country’s official net foreign reserves. “That is, there is as much financial wealth held by rich Russians abroad—in the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Cyprus, and similar offshore centers—than held by the entire Russian population in Russia itself,” it said.

Around 60% of rich Russians’ wealth is estimated to be overseas, according to a separate NBER paper on tax havens. The Atlantic Council, meanwhile, estimates Russians have $1 trillion of shadow finances abroad.

If 60% of the total wealth seizure outside of Russia is 1 trillion-dollars, that makes a substantial fund available for rebuilding the Ukrainian economy and its destroyed architecture including family homes ...
 
No. He hasn't lost and if he annexes Ukraine, as you say, he's won. There is no consolation in him losing a few friends. We can't let it happen.

Spot on!

The Ukraine will become a recognized trader of the European Union (which is right next door in Poland). Russia will get nothing, even if it manages to sculpt from the Ukraine the predominantly Russian-regions on the eastern-border. Where those living there can assume the consequences of their idiotic Russia choice-of-partners. (After all, they speak both Russian and Ukrainian.)

And those who decided to escape to Europe are more than welcome there. Some Ukrainian-kids are now in schools right next to me here in France. They are getting along fine with the French boys&girls. One of the kids asked his mother (who spoke some English) if he could go to the US one day. I assured her that they would be more than welcome. But the mother says she "loves" France in pretty good English! (Then she asked me, "How do you say that in French?, which I told her.)

There are those of us in France who have been asking for the past year, "Just what-in-hell do the Russians really want?" The super-rich are well known in France having bought some very expensive properties in the southeast of France. But, they've not learned to mingle in French. The kids are in secondary-school as well as university and they are speaking French on behalf of their parents who do not.

Those who bought businesses in Europe are seeing them being seized legally as well as their bank-accounts. But, they are a smart-bunch. Most have put their funds not in Europe or the US, but in the United Arab Emirates. Those illicit funds have not been seized.

Some Ukrainians here in France say that they dearly want to go back, which is understandable Others are a bit more reticent and think they should stay to see how France works out ...
 
Even if Russia succeeds in annexing Ukraine, is it a victory? The Soviet Union's invasion of Afghanistan failed. The invasion of Ukraine has exposed weaknesses in effectiveness and moral of Russia's armed forces. European countries, including far right governed Poland, can't do enough for Ukraine, sending money, weapons, and accepting millions of refugees.

Zelensky will be killed or imprisoned by Russia, making him an inspirational martyr, or he will escape and lead a popular and well supported government in exile.

European countries have seen the folly of relying on Russia for gas and oil. While this may not change for years, the incentive not to be dependent on Russia is obvious and enjoys popular support.

And this is all based on Russia "winning" the war. What is a win for Russia here?
No. Putin hasn't lost yet. Not until Europe and especially Germany get off his gas and oil. So far they are financing their own invasion
 
Russia's rich have learned their lesson. They have moved their millions out of the EU (and Britain) to Dubai.

Of course, what those millions are doing in Dubai is earning interest. But not buying for the Russian-Rich superb EU properties. And that is just-as-well! I know of no one who welcomes here in France the Russian Rich except some real-estate agents selling properties in Paris and the Cote d'Azur!

Let's remember, boyz-'n-galz, that money came from the dissolved Soviet Union where it belonged to ALL THE RUSSIAN PEOPLE.

But, what Yeltsin (first president of the New Russia) did was to give it to what we now call "Russian Oligarchs" whilst in power from 1991 to 1999? But what were the deals? Giving that money away for nothing would be stoopid. He must have had a pre-arranged agreement between him and those receiving the money regarding its source. Neither wanted anyone to know ... !
 
HOW RUSSIA WAS REBORN

From here: How 'shock therapy' created Russian oligarchs and paved the path for Putin (March 22, 2022)

Excerpt:

It's been a rough few weeks for Roman Abramovich.

The British government blocked him from entering the country and froze his assets, depriving him of a glittering collection of sports cars, his 15-bedroom mansion in central London, his penthouse overlooking the River Thames, and the Chelsea soccer club.

The European Union is also messing with his finances and banning him from traveling into its 27 member states. No more summering in Saint-Tropez or wintering in Chamonix.

In the United States, members of Congress are now calling on President Biden to sanction Abramovich, threatening his megamansion on the Upper East Side.

It's not just governments. Last week, a Pro-Ukraine activist in Spain chartered a boat and attempted to graffiti Abramovich's 458-foot superyacht, Solaris, which was docked in a Barcelona marina. Although the activist failed, Abramovich directed his two superyachts (he has another one) to head east for safety.

Abramovich, himself, has fled east for safety, back home to Russia, which seems to be one of the few nations where he's welcome these days.

All of this is a lot of unwanted publicity for a man with a reputation for shunning the spotlight. An orphan who grew up in the frozen tundra of Siberia, Abramovich rose from nothing to become a tycoon worth an estimated $13 billion.

The comeuppance is difficult to assimilate by the Russian jerks who thought the riches they purloined from government-funds should produce only more riches and not headaches.

It's not over, the brouhaha that has belabored the Russians for the past 30-years since they mis-elected Putin to the presidency of Russia. (He'd lost the election and finagled the numbers!)

How Russia paved the way for Putin to be president for life - here.
 
The goalposts for Putin were always notoriously vague. The idea of fully annexing Ukraine seems to be on the extreme end of the scale, and at this point the russians are taking more Ukrainian territory. As I said initially if full annexation is the metric then it doesn't appear Russia will be able to accomplish that.
I never said he wanted full annexation I said he wanted to install a puppet regime which clearly he cannot do
The Russians are advancing today. The west has upped its pressure on russia to the maximum short of military engagement. If this fails to deter russia and russia is able to continue the offensive in spite of this (or even continue holding Ukrainian territory) then it would appear to have little real effect in the hot theater.
I good assessment of the situation
The Russians have not fully set conditions for a large-scale offensive operation. The Russians have not had enough time to reconstitute forces withdrawn from the Battle of Kyiv and ready them properly for a new offensive in the east. The Russians appear to be still building logistics and command-and-control capabilities even as they start the next round of major fighting. The tempo of Russian operations continues to suggest that President Vladimir Putin is demanding a hasty offensive to achieve his stated objectives, possibly by “Victory Day” on May 9. The haste and partial preparation of the Russian attack will likely undermine its effectiveness and may compromise its success.

Point is though that this is all to try and get something he can call a win after the inglorious retreat from Kiev.
 
Continued:
But this is only part of it.

If Russia's real enemies are seen to be NATO or the west/Antlanticism generally, then this special operation will be seen as the birth of a new order. The true multipolarity and the end of the unipolar 'end of history' dominance of the western world, which will then be seen as only one pole in the world. China, India, Africa will all continue strengthening ties with Russia for their own ends, and Europe will be subjected to paying a premium for energy until they either build enough LNG or nukes (years if not decades away) especially if the anti-coal movement doesn't die. Even the USA's allies in the Middle East, from Dubai to Ankara, aren't keen on distancing from Russia or joining some grand coalition with the west. Europe is still bankrolling this war through energy purchases.
Another reason they los the war. One of the stated aims of Russia was to keep NATO off Russia's borders. Ukraine which seemed very unlikely to actually join NATO may actually do so after this war. Finland and Sweden look to be joining NATO themselves. Instead of keeping NATO from expanding, Putin is causing its expansion
There have been a lot of claims about the Russian war machine not being able to sustain itself, falling apart, etc, but the Russians are advancing today. In 6 months to a year the situation may be quite different. Yes, Russia may implode. But if it doesn't it, and it's Army hasn't disintegrated, it will be far stronger than it is right now even if it still is sitting on a demarcation line in Ukraine.
No it wont it will be weaker regardless of what happen. It has lost too much material that it cannot replace in the near to medium term to become stronger, Heck its lost a lot of top officer corps (through enemy action or Putin purges) This is making it weaker not stronger. Though I suspect that the Putinistas will steal less from the military (for now) which will help them a bit
Russia doesn't control the world or try to. They're not the 'rules based order' people. Those are the people who have far more to lose. And strategically Russia surviving when all of those people are united against it and indeed building a new order outside of the "rules based" western world will be more of a loss for the west than the moral victory of half of Ukraine remaining independent.
The countries are untied against Russia because of Russian agression
You are back to the claim that surviving a war they needlessly started is a win. It isnt, it is a massive loss if that is the only claim they can make

If Russia implodes, different story. But nothing short of that will be a victory for the west, which is why the sanctions will never come off without regime change, which is why it's not happening.
Nope Russia failing to achieve its goals is a win for the west and a loss for Russia
Russia has failed to achieve its goals the only question now is how great a loss it will be for Russia
 
Russia still has a lot of heavy weaponry, much more than Ukraine. Unless it receives armor and other heavy weaponry in large quantities, it will not be able to remove the Russians from Donbas. I don’t think the West will be willing to supply tanks and artillery in the quantities needed to kick the Russians out.
Ukraine military is stronger now than at the start of thew war when you consider the captured equipment and all the kit they are receiving from the west. Russia is weaker.
Putin may get his land bridge to Crimea but the war will still be a loss, He cannot install a puppet govt and he has made NATO stronger not weaker.
 
WAKEY WAKEY

I never said he wanted full annexation I said he wanted to install a puppet regime which clearly he cannot do

That was indeed Putin's original plan. Obviously, it has not gone "according to the book".

And, this war is likely not over. The Ukrainians have a devastated country so why should they sign a Peace Treaty with the country that invaded theirs. It doesn't make sense, since any treaty can be readily rebuked and they will find themselves with the Russian army on their doorstep again!

No, the guarantees have to go further for the Ukrainians to accept them. That is, they need to become a member of the European Union, which means also NATO.

And, of course, Russia will hate that idea. So, Putin will want to start another war. Because that is the way this minnow-minded jerk is composed.

Putin masterminded the handout of billions to those who towed his line. It worked fine for more than thirty years.

But, the Russian presidency needs badly a wakey-wakey and the only guy who could do that is in prison: Alexie Navalny.
 
WAKEY WAKEY



That was indeed Putin's original plan. Obviously, it has not gone "according to the book".

And, this war is likely not over. The Ukrainians have a devastated country so why should they sign a Peace Treaty with the country that invaded theirs. It doesn't make sense, since any treaty can be readily rebuked and they will find themselves with the Russian army on their doorstep again!

No, the guarantees have to go further for the Ukrainians to accept them. That is, they need to become a member of the European Union, which means also NATO.

And, of course, Russia will hate that idea. So, Putin will want to start another war. Because that is the way this minnow-minded jerk is composed.

Putin masterminded the handout of billions to those who towed his line. It worked fine for more than thirty years.

But, the Russian presidency needs badly a wakey-wakey and the only guy who could do that is in prison: Alexie Navalny.
The greatest part of Russias defeat in Ukraine is how much he has strengthened NATO and unified the west against him
 
Putin may get his land bridge to Crimea but the war will still be a loss, He cannot install a puppet govt and he has made NATO stronger not weaker.

He’ll get Donnas, too, which is already heavily Russian, although he seems to not trust them and wants to start from scratch. Apparently, Russian troops are attacking ethnic Russians who fought for separatism in the eastern part of the country, such is the indiscriminate nature of their attacks on and in cities. Putin is obviously willing to force Ukrainians out of cities by the hundreds of thousands and kill the diehards who stick around. He’s taking a page out of Stalin’s book. I’m sure he’ll have plenty of new settlers from Russia to move in, just as in Crimea.
 
HOW RUSSIA WAS REBORN

From here: How 'shock therapy' created Russian oligarchs and paved the path for Putin (March 22, 2022)

Excerpt:



The comeuppance is difficult to assimilate by the Russian jerks who thought the riches they purloined from government-funds should produce only more riches and not headaches.

It's not over, the brouhaha that has belabored the Russians for the past 30-years since they mis-elected Putin to the presidency of Russia. (He'd lost the election and finagled the numbers!)

How Russia paved the way for Putin to be president for life - here.
No wonder Trump thinks he's a genius. Putin is Trump's role model
 
WAKEY WAKEY



That was indeed Putin's original plan. Obviously, it has not gone "according to the book".

And, this war is likely not over. The Ukrainians have a devastated country so why should they sign a Peace Treaty with the country that invaded theirs. It doesn't make sense, since any treaty can be readily rebuked and they will find themselves with the Russian army on their doorstep again!

No, the guarantees have to go further for the Ukrainians to accept them. That is, they need to become a member of the European Union, which means also NATO.

And, of course, Russia will hate that idea. So, Putin will want to start another war. Because that is the way this minnow-minded jerk is composed.

Putin masterminded the handout of billions to those who towed his line. It worked fine for more than thirty years.

But, the Russian presidency needs badly a wakey-wakey and the only guy who could do that is in prison: Alexie Navalny.
The oligarchs Putin made rich are wedded to him. They have no future without him.
 
The greatest part of Russias defeat in Ukraine is how much he has strengthened NATO and unified the west against him
Putin knew or should have known that. That's why he ran his plan by China. China asked him to hold off for a while because of the Olympics. They were so proud of themselves. And Putin did as asked and by the time he moved into Ukraine the ground had turned to mud.
 
...and who do you think is telling him what to do ?
Whoever his handlers are. Could be a combination of his wife Jill, his chief of staff, one or more of the Nazis in the democrat party leadership.
 
He’ll get Donnas, too, which is already heavily Russian, although he seems to not trust them and wants to start from scratch. Apparently, Russian troops are attacking ethnic Russians who fought for separatism in the eastern part of the country, such is the indiscriminate nature of their attacks on and in cities. Putin is obviously willing to force Ukrainians out of cities by the hundreds of thousands and kill the diehards who stick around. He’s taking a page out of Stalin’s book. I’m sure he’ll have plenty of new settlers from Russia to move in, just as in Crimea.
Not sure he will even get his land bridge but he will sacrifice a lot of people trying.
Time will tell
 
Putin knew or should have known that. That's why he ran his plan by China. China asked him to hold off for a while because of the Olympics. They were so proud of themselves. And Putin did as asked and by the time he moved into Ukraine the ground had turned to mud.
Not sure his top people were giving him a true picture of the situation. Seems he genuinely believed he could just walk in
 
Not sure he will even get his land bridge but he will sacrifice a lot of people trying.
Time will tell

Well, Biden upped lethal aid again another $800 million, and this package includes 72 155mm howitzers and 400,000 rounds of ammo, so that should ring a few Russian bells. The package also includes a new drone designed for Ukraine that’s supposed pack a solid punch.

 
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