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Hard vs Soft Brexit

Infinite Chaos

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~ The "hard Brexiters" are those want to act quickly and be gone. They want to curb European migration as quickly as possible, using a points system. They don't much value being part of the single market, and point out that just about every nation in the world has "access" to it, without being a member. You can call this the "Canada Lite" model if you like.

"Soft Brexiters" want to take their time, and retain as close a relationship with the rest of the European Union as possible. They want access to the single market, and some sort of minor concession on free movement.

Perhaps, they muse, the EU would give us an emergency brake and annual quotas on both sides. Their priority is to avoid trade tariffs and secure a good deal for services, particularly financial services. That's "Norway Plus" ~ Link.

Thoughtful article on the new politics, I really get the sense of a continued strong divide with people around me still talking of the "Remain Camp" and "Brexit Camp," but the talk of two versions of Brexit also makes sense.

As the article asks, are we going to see new political parties grow? UKIP certainly haven't given up - Johnathan Anott, UKIP member up here in the north certainly sees a future where he wants to convert the working class Labour voter who didn't support the official Labour position into a supporter of whatever name UKIP takes going forward.

We are a nation divided, that is something all politicians are going to have to address and be aware of.
 

Andalublue

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Thoughtful article on the new politics, I really get the sense of a continued strong divide with people around me still talking of the "Remain Camp" and "Brexit Camp," but the talk of two versions of Brexit also makes sense.

As the article asks, are we going to see new political parties grow? UKIP certainly haven't given up - Johnathan Anott, UKIP member up here in the north certainly sees a future where he wants to convert the working class Labour voter who didn't support the official Labour position into a supporter of whatever name UKIP takes going forward.

With the EU question of 'in or out' resolved, what does UKIP believe its appeal to former and current Labour voters will be? Will they shift their focus to being a pure anti-immigration party? When it comes to voting for a government, it's the economy stupid, isn't it? Does anyone know what UKIP's economic policies are? Take a look at their manifestos posted on their website and economics are virtually never mentioned other than repeating the 350 million Brexit lie that they've already gone back on.

Will the voters that they reckon they are going to hoover up not want to know their policies for the NHS, welfare, taxation, business, agriculture, fisheries etc etc?
We are a nation divided, that is something all politicians are going to have to address and be aware of.
That's not going to go away any time soon. TBH it will probably get worse when the full impact of Brexit begins to bite and the nature of the pup the Brexit voters were sold becomes clear. Now that UKIP and the Tories no longer have the EU to blame for everything wrong with British society and economy, are they now going to switch to scapegoating all immigrants instead? Yeah, that'll go well for social cohesion.
 

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Thoughtful article on the new politics, I really get the sense of a continued strong divide with people around me still talking of the "Remain Camp" and "Brexit Camp," but the talk of two versions of Brexit also makes sense.

As the article asks, are we going to see new political parties grow? UKIP certainly haven't given up - Johnathan Anott, UKIP member up here in the north certainly sees a future where he wants to convert the working class Labour voter who didn't support the official Labour position into a supporter of whatever name UKIP takes going forward.

We are a nation divided, that is something all politicians are going to have to address and be aware of.

To be honest, I think that the politicians are not going to address it per say. The Tories seem to be falling under the yoke of the remain camp, with the Brexit people being marginalized and utterly destroyed. It has been a couple weeks of long knives so to say and they will continue... we shall see the new Cabinet... lots of Brexit people there are going to get fired.. Gove being the first target.

Regardless a new May government need one thing asap.. a plan.. any plan and they need to address the whole "needs to be voted by parliament" aspect of the Brexit vote. And then there is Scotland and Northern Ireland issue, which can go one way or another depending on what May will do.

The main problem is that the British can speculate all they want, but this will be a negotiation between 2 parties and that can only mean that the UK wont get what they want, unless they give up quite a bit. I suspect in the end, the UK will end up paying more into the EU budget (directly or indirectly) than they are doing now, but get near the same access to European markets.. and of course not curbing EU immigration at all. And there will be some irony in that...

Now this of course will cause problems among the xenophobic and racist aspects of the Tory and Labour parties, which UKIP could exploit. However with out Farage it seems that UKIP is imploding.. they cant even agree on how to elect a new leader. But of course if we get a Norway Plus model, then they have another reason to stay around .. to get out of the Norway Plus model.
 

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Thoughtful article on the new politics, I really get the sense of a continued strong divide with people around me still talking of the "Remain Camp" and "Brexit Camp," but the talk of two versions of Brexit also makes sense.

As the article asks, are we going to see new political parties grow? UKIP certainly haven't given up - Johnathan Anott, UKIP member up here in the north certainly sees a future where he wants to convert the working class Labour voter who didn't support the official Labour position into a supporter of whatever name UKIP takes going forward.

We are a nation divided, that is something all politicians are going to have to address and be aware of.


It is in the nature of democratic nations to be divided IC. Show me a united nation - other than in time of major war - and I will show you a dictatorship. The biggest and best current example that springs to mind is China.
 

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~ But of course if we get a Norway Plus model ~

I'm coming to the thought that this was a price that many soft Brexit people wanted. Cameron's negotiation that the UK would be out of the central EU plans for further integration is where we may be heading but people wanted that much more clearly made.

What remains to be seen however is if the UK could apply some sort of break on numbers other than crashing the economy so that migrants wouldn't want to come to a recession hit country.

~ what does UKIP believe its appeal to former and current Labour voters will be? ~

Right now, who can tell? UKIP membership was drawn from all sorts of sides of the spectrum. They will start to have an internal debate and discussion about where they will go. They'll lose and draw members but they are right when they say they are by size the 3rd largest political party right now.

~ Now that UKIP and the Tories no longer have the EU to blame for everything wrong with British society and economy ~

All political parties blamed the EU and immigration for everything. What I'd like to see in 10 years time is those underdeveloped areas with high unemployment having policies and resources aimed squarely at them as they have asked. As to the comment about scapegoating immigration - that won't wash as there are low numbers of migrants in those areas anyway.

This is one area I hope Theresa May makes serious inroads - these people have asked for change and they better get it and they better be enabled (whatever that takes) to make use of the change. If these areas are still sinkholes of low education and aspiration, we will have problems.

I went to a conference yesterday forward planning for my county - by 2031, there will be a huge skills gap of people not qualified for the employment and opportunities at the higher employment grades which will be available. Some areas have very low aspiration and desire to engage, one area I've had several students from over the area is infamous for most of the local girls being pregnant and in council housing by 19 yrs of age. The ones who want to make it out and change their lives work hard to get out or educate themselves and we need to have more of these kids coming through to higher education.
 

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Right now, who can tell? UKIP membership was drawn from all sorts of sides of the spectrum. They will start to have an internal debate and discussion about where they will go.
The problem they face is that their organisation is so threadbare that I'm not sure they have the decision-making mechanisms to create a cogent manifesto. As you point out, beyond Brexit, their politics are all over the place. You've got some liberal types like Suzanne Evans and Nikki Sinclaire who the Farage leadership tried to smear and purge, and you got some far-right, libertarian headbangers like Farage himself, Nuttall and Hamilton who want to increase gun ownership and privatise the NHS. Which UKIP will disenchanted Labour voters turn to? If they look to the libertarian right, they'll fall flat on their face since there is one thing that enjoys near unanimity of support in almost every one of those northern, Brexit-voting constituencies, and that's an NHS, free at the point of delivery.

they are right when they say they are by size the 3rd largest political party right now.
No doubt. Three million votes don't lie.

All political parties blamed the EU and immigration for everything. What I'd like to see in 10 years time is those underdeveloped areas with high unemployment having policies and resources aimed squarely at them as they have asked.
Not going to happen, IC. The Tories are already planning on doubling down on austerity. Is there a single Brexiteer that is now promising that 350 million per week extra to the NHS, as they promised?

As to the comment about scapegoating immigration - that won't wash as there are low numbers of migrants in those areas anyway.
It depends which areas you're talking about. The areas I'm talking about are the deprived cities and large towns of post-industrial northern England where the Tories have relocated the vast majority of incoming refugees and where minority ethnic communities are strong and large. Compare these two maps. The first is of the Brexit vote, the second of areas of concentration of migrants.

EU referendum: The result in maps and charts - BBC News

Where are the immigrants? This map will tell you - Telegraph

There's not a significant discrepancy between them in the North and Northwest. Clearly there is in the Northeast.

This is one area I hope Theresa May makes serious inroads - these people have asked for change and they better get it and they better be enabled (whatever that takes) to make use of the change. If these areas are still sinkholes of low education and aspiration, we will have problems.
What makes you believe May will pursue different policies from Cameron? The Tories to date, and let's not forget that May was #3 in the outgoing administration, offered nothing but austerity, cuts to services and greater southeastward centralisation to the struggling regions of the Midlands and North. Has anyone heard a peep out of Osborne on the 'Northern Powerhouse' proposals in the last year? What else might they offer?

I went to a conference yesterday forward planning for my county - by 2031, there will be a huge skills gap of people not qualified for the employment and opportunities at the higher employment grades which will be available. Some areas have very low aspiration and desire to engage, one area I've had several students from over the area is infamous for most of the local girls being pregnant and in council housing by 19 yrs of age. The ones who want to make it out and change their lives work hard to get out or educate themselves and we need to have more of these kids coming through to higher education.
The fact is that the Tories have no proposals for encouraging the ambitious and motivated students from areas such as yours. No carrot and stick, just stick and more stick. You think May will change that?
 

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~ Which UKIP will disenchanted Labour voters turn to? ~

Maybe the question is which Labour Party will speak for those disenchanted Labour voters? Not dodging your question but I am not a UKIP person, I can't speak for its organisation and manifesto.
Anyhow, here is Jonathan Arnott's website - he has made biggest moves to stand for Farage's replacement.

~ Not going to happen, IC. The Tories are already planning on doubling down on austerity.

Theresa May was a supporter of Brexit but there are at present vastly differing theories on whether she is going to continue or abandon. The only clear thing abandoned is the 2020 target which many felt wasn't going to be reached anyway.

~ Is there a single Brexiteer that is now promising that 350 million per week extra to the NHS, as they promised?

You know the answer to that as well as I do.

~It depends which areas you're talking about. ~

There's not a significant discrepancy between them in the North and Northwest. Clearly there is in the Northeast.~

Another view.

Fear of immigration drove the leave victory – not immigration itself | Politics | The Guardian

~ Has anyone heard a peep out of Osborne on the 'Northern Powerhouse' proposals in the last year?

No, the powerhouse was a blanket for more austerity measures. If you remember, I am actually a supporter of reducing the country's deficit but alongside cutting costs I would like to see plans for development and renewal.

~The fact is that the Tories have no proposals for encouraging the ambitious and motivated students from areas such as yours. No carrot and stick, just stick and more stick. You think May will change that?

Nobody needs to encourage the ambitious and motivated, they will nearly always do well - it's raising the aspirations of those who have none which is the challenge and very few on any side have any ideas for this.

In my frontline experience, the two policies I see/saw working are 1) EMA (educational maintenance allowance) which has to be tied to results and effort and 2) not allowing students to progress from GCSE to A level or University unless they have a minimum C in English and Maths.

Tony Blair's EMA raised aspirations through simple financial reward and enticement and Michael Gove's English & Maths GCSE policy has had a huge impact for students.
 

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Maybe the question is which Labour Party will speak for those disenchanted Labour voters? Not dodging your question but I am not a UKIP person, I can't speak for its organisation and manifesto.
You're right about Labour's s***** prospects for unity and renewal, but that doesn't address a similar problem for UKIP. Just who and what are they post-Brexit?

Theresa May was a supporter of Brexit
No, she wasn't. She was a luke-warm supporter of remain. BTW, anyone else see the irony of Corbyn being excoriated for his luke warm campaigning, while May is being praised for her political acumen in keeping a low profile?

but there are at present vastly differing theories on whether she is going to continue or abandon.
Continue or abandon what?

The only clear thing abandoned is the 2020 target which many felt wasn't going to be reached anyway.
Which was the Tories' #1 economic electoral position just last year.


You know the answer to that as well as I do.
You don't think that any of their supporters are likely to upset at how quickly that promise was ditched?

No, the powerhouse was a blanket for more austerity measures. If you remember, I am actually a supporter of reducing the country's deficit but alongside cutting costs I would like to see plans for development and renewal.
Tell me IC, how can you develop and renew by cutting investment and imposing further austerity?


Nobody needs to encourage the ambitious and motivated, they will nearly always do well - it's raising the aspirations of those who have none which is the challenge and very few on any side have any ideas for this.
Encouraging ambition and optimism in those with talent and ability, who might none the less lack unstoppable self-belief is surely essential. I wasn't talking about the tiny minority of the highest achievers, although encouragement to them won't do any harm. And it's not just about trying to imbue some hint of motivation to those who lack any, although that would be an awesome achievement were it possible. The vast majority of people fall somewhere between those two extremes and it's the task of everyone to lend their efforts to motivate and encourage everyone according to their particular needs.

In my frontline experience, the two policies I see/saw working are 1) EMA (educational maintenance allowance) which has to be tied to results and effort
I agree. Were EMAs previously not tied to results and effort?

and 2) not allowing students to progress from GCSE to A level or University unless they have a minimum C in English and Maths.
I remember that having Maths and English Grade C was obligatory when I went to college in 1980. Had that been dropped? Not being in education, I may have missed that.
 

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~ Just who and what are they post-Brexit?

Like I say, time and internal battles will sort that out.

~No, she wasn't. She was a luke-warm supporter of remain.

My bad, I even commented on that a while ago on another thread.

~ Continue or abandon what?

Austerity. Osborne has given up on the target and that was claimed to be a relaxation. Some papers comment the end of austerity and others say more will come. Time will tell.

~ Which was the Tories' #1 economic electoral position just last year.

Yeah, we're still 4 years away from the end of Parliament so we'll never know.

~ You don't think that any of their supporters are likely to upset at how quickly that promise was ditched?

Honestly? No, I think whatever facts were put in place, a majority of Brexiteers would vote exactly the same again. Note that it wasn't a party political manifesto promise, simply a Brexit promise and we don't have a Brexit govt.

~Tell me IC, how can you develop and renew by cutting investment and imposing further austerity?

That's a whole other thread and I'm off out in a moment.

~ Encouraging ambition and optimism in those with talent and ability, who might none the less lack unstoppable self-belief is surely essential. I wasn't talking about the tiny minority of the highest achievers, although encouragement to them won't do any harm. And it's not just about trying to imbue some hint of motivation to those who lack any, although that would be an awesome achievement were it possible. The vast majority of people fall somewhere between those two extremes and it's the task of everyone to lend their efforts to motivate and encourage everyone according to their particular needs.

I can disagree this Andy I wasn't talking about those high achievers I'm addressing the middle and lots come in with a minimum of ambition and minimum will to work.

~I agree. Were EMAs previously not tied to results and effort?

Originally no, you simply turned up to class and you got paid at the end of the week. People like me began to resent giving taxpayer's money to kids who had worked out that they didn't need to do anything to get their £30 a week. It was beautiful when you could demand work and effort.

~I remember that having Maths and English Grade C was obligatory when I went to college in 1980. Had that been dropped? Not being in education, I may have missed that.

It must have been Andy, there was a thing called Common Skills in 1995 and then Key Skills in 2000 which was the most horrible thing ever. Students could do a course and we had to get them to pass their Key Skills (numeracy and communication) but it wasn't contingent on their course so motivating them to do the work was awful. We as tutors got the blame if they didn't pass. The one good thing Michael Gove brought back was killing all that and having GCSEs back so students couldn't progress otherwise.
 

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[~ Tell me IC, how can you develop and renew by cutting investment and imposing further austerity?

OK, to try and answer this now I have time. I feel it is possible, dependent on the country where it is being enacted. I am a big believe in budgetary management especially where costs have risen astronomically. Speaking generally, I believe the focus of austerity should be about reducing overspending and cutting back on unnecessary expenditure. There are priorities that have to be worked around such as defence, health and education but there are also even here ways that costs should be reduced where possible.
I believe spending should be targeted just as cuts should be targeted. In the education sector, we spent billions in the early 2000's under Blair's "education, education education" mantra and the big areas where this worked best were 1) London Challenge and 2) Educational Maintenance Allowance (with the aforesaid proviso payment was dependent on work and effort) and there were other areas which were not so successful. Apparently we spent a £billion + per week at one point on education and the rise in achievement went from 35.6% kids in 1997 getting 5 GCSEs to 45.1% when Blair left office.

I'm not attacking Blair or the spend - just trying to make the point that austerity, like spending if targeted could work. I'm not going to say any politicians or govt in the last 30-50 years has really targeted expenditure and growth and similarly, cuts or austerity have equally not been targeted well.
 

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OK, to try and answer this now I have time. I feel it is possible, dependent on the country where it is being enacted. I am a big believe in budgetary management especially where costs have risen astronomically. Speaking generally, I believe the focus of austerity should be about reducing overspending and cutting back on unnecessary expenditure.
Public services are cut to the bone. Where do you think all this overspending is taking place? What unnecessary expenditure do you think needs cutting?


There are priorities that have to be worked around such as defence, health and education but there are also even here ways that costs should be reduced where possible.
Sorry IC, that sounds like sloganising. Without giving details we'd have to assume you don't really know where those costs should be reduced. If you don't know what those are, why do you assume they exist?

austerity, like spending if targeted could work.
What makes you believe that to be true? Can you point to anywhere that has improved public services by cutting spending on it?
 

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Public services are cut to the bone. Where do you think all this overspending is taking place? What unnecessary expenditure do you think needs cutting?

Agency staffing for one. That does mean better working conditions for permanent staff so they don't leave. Like I said - targeted. Purchasing in public services too - some of the suppliers we have to use are not the best value but we are very constrained to them.

As for all the detail you may be after in all branches, I don't get to see those figures. I'm a lowly grunt in the public sector.

~ Sorry IC, that sounds like sloganising. Without giving details we'd have to assume you don't really know where those costs should be reduced. If you don't know what those are, why do you assume they exist?

Just did. If you really wanted, I could later on give you links to companies that specialise in supplying to education, govt etc in some areas - you won't always see prices but they don't often compete well on quality products that we could get elsewhere. And I'm not going to give you links to agency staffing replacement providers, that tends to be sensitive information.


~What makes you believe that to be true? Can you point to anywhere that has improved public services by cutting spending on it?

Recently we've had loads of complaints about the increasing and high number of potholes across the UK, a situation where continued high spend would keep the old expensive system in place. Lower budgets have forced innovation and now faster, cheaper ways to resurface potholes has been invented.

I'm not saying blanket austerity is the ideal Andy, but the alternative of continuing with a huge and ever growing budget deficit is not one I want to keep handing down to future generations.
 

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I'm not saying blanket austerity is the ideal Andy, but the alternative of continuing with a huge and ever growing budget deficit is not one I want to keep handing down to future generations.

I agree with that, but what dealing with excessive spend on contractors, agencies etc requires is proper policing and regulation and that requires money to be invested in the staff to do it. Increasing investment in monitoring would reap benefits, but the government prefers to see private companies profiting and blame the overspend on the local management of public services. It's central government policies that have created the overspend, but it's all too easy for them to scapegoat the little people implementing their failed initiatives.
 

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I agree with that, but what dealing with excessive spend on contractors, agencies etc requires is proper policing and regulation and that requires money to be invested in the staff to do it.

Sorry for butting in as they say but this is close to my heart politically speaking..

The problem with this, is that it cant be solved with a conservative government in power. Why? Because most conservatives are private is better than public no matter what.. to such a degree that it is irrational. On There are no checks and balances. Now I am Venstre man, but I am a traditionalist Venstre man... a pragmatist. Do I prefer private ownership and companies? Yes, but only up to a point... certain things need to be in the public sphere and you cant do it in the private sphere.

Of course the flip side with left wing governments (the bad kind) want everything in the public sphere which aint always the best either.

Increasing investment in monitoring would reap benefits, but the government prefers to see private companies profiting and blame the overspend on the local management of public services.

Problem is often that monitoring is given to private companies.. I have seen a case where the private monitoring company was set to monitor companies that were owned by the same holding company.... this was not found out for quite a while..

Another issue is that legislation often prevents government in getting the best price, but also normal contractual penalties for not meeting requirements and so on. Government in all countries are often hampered by legislation and incompetence in actually monitoring private contractors. The key is to set up a system that actually does that.. a review system. In Denmark we have such a system (in parts) and it has worked some what.

An example from Denmark that still pisses me off is ISS. It is the biggest service company in the world (and is Danish). Chances are that any private company in a hospital (cleaning, food making and so on) is ISS (hell I think they run the Westminster Catrina now days). Now in Denmark, ISS won a contract to take care of an old peoples home. It took complaints from family members and then the monitering group for ISS to get kicked out. But of course being the public sector, there was no real penalties (other than bad press) for failing to live up to the contract they had signed.

It's central government policies that have created the overspend, but it's all too easy for them to scapegoat the little people implementing their failed initiatives.

I agree. But lets also face it, governments of whatever colour have a hard time to actually do what is necessary. The UK has a deficit of 70 billion pounds. You cant cut that away.. you need income as well.

However on the cutting aspect, it is hard.

Take benefits. We both know that there are generations of families in the UK (and many countries) who live of the state. They cost society billions a year. Fix that! The left wont touch it, the right would love too but know that it would cost them votes.

Or taxes. Make sure people and companies actually pay the taxes they are suppose too! The left would love to do something about it, but also know that their corporate backers would not like it, and the right does not want to touch it.

Would a conservative government ever dump Trident? of course not.. it is their penis extender.. but that could save a ton of money. They would rather cut benefits, which the left would not do.. and so on and so on and so on.

There are more of course, but it all comes down to politics and not pragmatism and that will choke any country over and over again.
 

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So much for those wishing to remain toeing the line of authority. It's ok I know you will never admit to being wrong but that does not change the facts, so I will present them to you. Brexit systematically means those in the UK are all poorer, more unemployed, have a worse health system, a worse social security system, less respected globally, more divided, less welcoming and suspicious of each other. And probably those on benefits will have to be put into forced labour teams to cover the 3 million if they are idiotically repatriated. Otherwise the country will probably collapse. Pat on the back for that, job well done. It is the "everything is BS" mentality that caused the problem but the truth is the ignorance is truly astonishing.

My view on some of the Brits has changed, and also my view of the UK itself. What a horrible place to be living right now. Most people appear to be acting like nothing has happened, they seem in denial and as shocked as those who wanted to stay in. Doing their normal peace time privileges down the supermarket oblivious to the fact that what is to come is going to hurt like hell.
 
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