GOP Takes Unprecedented 10-Point Lead on Generic Ballot

[TennesseeRain]

So basically, relevant enough for you come post in...

If you say so, dear.

 

[TennesseeRain]

Aww Tennesseerain, don't cry, it'll be ok. And I'm not fatassed and white! Lolol. And they say teapartiers are racist!!! Wow!!

Sorry, but the mind bleach from looking at the pictures of all the people with raging cases of type II Diabetes who call themselves "tea partiers" and attended Beckapalooza hasn't kicked in yet.

 

[dontworrybehappy]

Hey Tennessee rain if you can say people who hate the liberals are fat assed and white can I say people who like them are dumbasses and black? After all, watching all those liberal supporters who are overwhelmingly black means I should be able to point that out, right? I should be able to, or maybe not, since it's only tea partiers who are racist?

No need to apologize for your racist remark. It will be noted for the next inevitable tea party racist thread, however.

 

[Teh Internets]

Who gives a flying f*** about which party is in office next time.If It's democrats we get the same bums who serve corporate interests.If it's republicans we get different bums who serve corporate interests.It really doesn't matter in my mind.

 

[jallman]

If you say so, dear.

You're the one that said so by posting. ROFL

Self pwnage is the best.

 

[LaMidRighter]

I think you overestimate the "anger" of the people who aren't fat assed and white. I also think you overestimate the value of a "generic" poll. The generic almost always wins...until the generic becomes a real person. Case in point: Harry Reid had his bags packed and ready to go. It was a sure loss for him...he was detested by just about everyone. And then the Republicans reached down into the barrel of all possible people they could run against Harry Reid and found the most bat**** looney tune they could find. And now it's a close race. So much for the "generic" kicking Harry Reid's ass from here to kingdom come.

So you can't debate with any facts and want to attack people? Good to know.

 

[Dav]

Gallup: GOP Takes Unprecedented 10-Point Lead on Generic Ballot

I've said it before and I'll say it again: anyone who does not think that the Democrats will lose the House in November is seriously deluding themselves at this point.

GOP Takes Unprecedented 10-Point Lead on Generic Ballot

PRINCETON, NJ -- Republicans lead by 51% to 41% among registered voters in Gallup weekly tracking of 2010 congressional voting preferences. The 10-percentage-point lead is the GOP's largest so far this year and is its largest in Gallup's history of tracking the midterm generic ballot for Congress.

By the way, Gallup's been polling midterm races for six decades. And of all those years, here the top six GOP numbers ever:

Every single one of the top 4 were measured this year.

Oh, and did I mention that Gallup's numbers invariably show worse results for Republicans than the actual final vote? Even without a 25-point lead in enthusiasm... which Republicans now have, to boot.

Republicans usually turn out in higher numbers in midterm elections than do Democrats, and Gallup's likely voter modeling in the final weeks of an election typically reflects a larger GOP advantage than is evident among registered voters. The wide enthusiasm gaps in the GOP's favor so far this year certainly suggest that this scenario may well play itself out again this November.

For the Democrats to retain the House by even a single seat at this point would require a political upset the likes of which has never been seen in this country's history. Some pundits and number-crunchers have speculated an 100-seat GOP gain to be the high-end estimate. It probably won't be that much, but it will definitely, without a doubt in my mind be more than the 40 they need to win control of the chamber.

EDIT: Dammit, how did I miss this thread? I was wondering why nobody else had made it yet.

 

[Dav]

Yes, to point out how stupid generic polls are and how desperate people appear when they start treating these polls as relevant.

You don't really know much about opinion polls, do you?

No, the Generic Ballot does not precisely predict how well a party does in November. Yes, it does indicate which party will do how well in November. No, no party has ever come back to gain/keep control of the House from being so devastatingly behind in these polls in only 2 months.

 

[Ockham]

You don't really know much about opinion polls, do you?

No, the Generic Ballot does not precisely predict how well a party does in November. Yes, it does indicate which party will do how well in November. No, no party has ever come back to gain/keep control of the House from being so devastatingly behind in these polls in only 2 months.

There ya go bringing fact based information again. How about a nice dose of hyperbole instead? :wink:

 

[Renae]

Your link points to the BN forum

Oh dear god, does it??

I lost this thread somehow... shoot me now.

 

[Morality Games]

I've said it before and I'll say it again: anyone who does not think that the Democrats will lose the House in November is seriously deluding themselves at this point.

GOP Takes Unprecedented 10-Point Lead on Generic Ballot

I'm still skeptical of that. The conditions under which we can take a poll as indicative of future outcomes are very exact and haven't necessarily been fulfilled.

But in terms of the policy, it doesn't really matter at this point if the Republicans take back the House, and as far as the future of the party goes, it is as much a disadvantage as it is an advantage.

 

[BWG]

Oops!


September 7, 2010

Parties Tied at 46% in Generic Ballot for Congress.

Parties Tied at 46% in Generic Ballot for Congress


I don't put a whole lot of weight with polls this far out. Oh, they're fun to look at and and prod the other side with, but still a long way to go 'til Nov.

Also this didn't get as much coverage from the 'librul' media as did the 10 point margin last week.....hmmmmm.

 

[Dav]

Oops!


September 7, 2010

Parties Tied at 46% in Generic Ballot for Congress.

Parties Tied at 46% in Generic Ballot for Congress


I don't put a whole lot of weight with polls this far out. Oh, they're fun to look at and and prod the other side with, but still a long way to go 'til Nov.

Also this didn't get as much coverage from the 'librul' media as did the 10 point margin last week.....hmmmmm.

Wow, a record lead never before measured in all of Gallup's history got more media attention than a poll with results that had already been arrived at several times before during this year and other GOP-leaning years? Color me shocked!

Gallup's generic ballot bounces around a lot... within a range. But it's the range itself that provides clues into what one might expect the outcome to be. The 10-point lead was an outlier, yes, but the fact that such an outlier was even possible to arrive at was very good news for the GOP, because even in other GOP-favored years, no such outlier had ever been reached.

And it's less than 2 months now, not really that long a way to go.

 

[BWG]

Wow, a record lead never before measured in all of Gallup's history got more media attention than a poll with results that had already been arrived at several times before during this year and other GOP-leaning years? Color me shocked!

Wow, a record lead never before measured in all of Gallup's history not only surmounted in a week but erasing ALL of the GOP's lead held the last couple of months. With minimal 'librul' media coverage. I just like exposing the myth of the 'librul' media every once in a while.

Gallup's generic ballot bounces around a lot... within a range. But it's the range itself that provides clues into what one might expect the outcome to be. The 10-point lead was an outlier, yes, but the fact that such an outlier was even possible to arrive at was very good news for the GOP, because even in other GOP-favored years, no such outlier had ever been reached.

You hype an anomaly (that has since been, not only wiped out, but overcame previous leads) but dismiss that just such an anomaly could happen in the other direction?

And it's less than 2 months now, not really that long a way to go.

Things change daily...:lol:

 

[Dav]

Wow, a record lead never before measured in all of Gallup's history not only surmounted in a week but erasing ALL of the GOP's lead held the last couple of months. With minimal 'librul' media coverage. I just like exposing the myth of the 'librul' media every once in a while.

Cool for you, but you didn't expose crap.

You don't seem to understand that nothing was surmounted. Nor was the GOP's lead "erased", in the way you are claiming anyways. Gallup's numbers bounce all over the place, all the time. Within a range. It had already been shown that a GOP-Dem tie was within that range, so that is not news. What IS news is that a GOP+10 lead - a lead NEVER before been reached - is somewhere in the range that Gallup is measuring. It is news because the GOP has NEVER been within that range before.

The Democrats didn't suddenly gain 10 points in one week the way you are saying. They did in the Generic Ballot, but that's because the numbers there bounce around constantly, and so the more important thing is not each individual number, but the range of numbers.

You hype an anomaly (that has since been, not only wiped out, but overcame previous leads) but dismiss that just such an anomaly could happen in the other direction?

Again, the anamoly wasn't wiped out. It is still there, having been measured just least week, and it's not as if the Democrats have made a major political recovery since then. It's just not this week's number, because Gallup's numbers jump from place to place, within a range, all the time.

I don't know what you mean by "in the other direction". Have the Democrats had a 10-point lead anytime recently? If they had, that would definitely be bad news for the GOP. But that hasn't happened, so I don't know what you were referring to.

Things change daily...:lol:

No, they don't. No party have ever, in history, recovered its image by such a large factor in such a short amount of time before the election.

2 months just isn't enough time to make such a huge comeback. And now they don't have even that.

 

[Divine Wind]

Who gives a flying f*** about which party is in office next time.If It's democrats we get the same bums who serve corporate interests.If it's republicans we get different bums who serve corporate interests.It really doesn't matter in my mind.

Too much truth in that! Although the Democrats seem to lean towards social special interest groups while the Republicans lean towards business (corporate) special interests.