GOP Senators are in a Real Jam

[radioman]

What were women's numbers in 2016?

54%/41% in favor of Trump. Those were figures with a female presidential candidate.

But 2020 is going to change because; reasons...

???????
Women voted FOR Trump 54% to 41% in 2016?
I think that is incorrect.
Do you have evidence to back up your assertion?

 

[radioman]

https://qz.com/833003/election-2016...whelmingly-for-clinton-except-the-white-ones/



This link says the opposite.

Your numbers are only whites. Clinton still took the female vote, because, reasons.

Thanks for the correct numbers.

 

[radioman]

Grrrr.

I'm going to go all grammar nazi here on you. Apologies in advance, but I see this one a lot.

You do not "tow" a line. You "toe" a line.

I feel your pain/aggravation.
Calling someone a "looser" instead of a "loser"....or the currently popular "Marshall Law" instead of "Martial Law".....maybe it's some sort of spellcheck glitch?

 

[radioman]

Dems picked up 40 house seats, you could hang 10 on that wave.

Fixed that for you... The general forecast was for 45 seats.

General forecast was +45 for the Dems?
C'mon, 538 had Dems at +39 and that's as big a margin as I saw.
Can you back your statement up......what pollster had the Dems at +45?

 

[markjs]

My money is on stroking out.

What a heartwarming thought!

 

[radioman]

You didn't meet analyst expectations...

Still waiting for your list of analysts who made the "general prediction" of Dems gaining 45 seats.

 

[radioman]

What a heartwarming thought!

I can beat that.....
Trump keels over while tweeting from his golden throne.
His final message is incomprehensible gobbledygook but nobody notices....the message just seems like a typical incoherent Trump twitterstorm.
Stalwart Qanon supporters, convinced their king was assassinated, take to the streets in righteous anger.
Then realizing their numbers are practically non-existent, they slink back into the shadows and resume posting bizarre memes about toxic chemtrails, deep state pedophilia, flat earth evidence and how JFK Jr is still alive.
Back to normal.

 

[Saladin4]

You didn't meet analyst expectations...

Still it was a beatdown...Lots of old conservative white men sent packing...Felt good

 

[Perotista]

Any seat the Republicans gained in 2014 can easily flip back in an environment where Trump is unpopular.

The metrics haven't changed that much in four years.

The metrics as you put it can change a lot in four years. Whom independents support can actually change quite a lot in just two years. With independents, its more of a whom they are angry at.

Example 2018 independents voted for Democratic congressional candidates 54-42
2016 independents voted for Trump 46-42 with 12% voting third party. The jump from 42% Democratic Hillary to 54% is a 12 point jump or switch in two years for independents.

In 2006 independents voted for Democratic congressional candidate 57-39, in 2008 they voted for Democrat Obama 53-44. Yet, just two years later in 2010, independents voted for Republican congressional candidates 56-37%. That's a 17 point swing away or switching of votes from Democrats of 2006 and a swing away of 12 points from 2008. In 2014 independents went for Republican congressional candidates 54-42.

Independents decide a whole lot of elections since they make up 40-43% of the total electorate and are capable of vote from a low of 39% for one party or president to a high of 57% for the other party in the next election or two down the line. Whomever independents are the most angry at, the other party's candidates will benefit hugely.

 

[marke]

It just occurred to me that GOP senators up for re-election in 2020 are in big trouble. If they dare stand against Trump on anything, his base will primary them out of the senate. On the other hand, if they bow to Trump on everything, they will likely lose the general election. Guess this is what you call a lose-lose.

Christians in America are faced with a growing majority of voters who despise Jesus and those who show any respect for Christianity and God bless America patriotism. Yes, the Senate as well as all America is in trouble.

 

[washunut]

I think that might be right as long as Trump can be neutered until then. Perhaps he is willing to behave but perhaps not. In that case he will force the Dems hand. There is honestly more than enough reasons for impeachment already.

He will probably be impeached by the House but not convicted in the Senate.

 

[Winston]

Thanks for the correct numbers.

Anytime.