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GOP Incumbents enjoy 10-point lead over Democrats in tight races

cpwill

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To gauge what voters are thinking in House districts where surveys show the races will likely be tight in November and a switch in party control is possible, Democratic firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research and Republican firm Public Opinion Strategies conducted a poll of 1,200 "likely" voters in 60 battleground districts that elected Democrats in 2008 (one of the seats is vacant) and 10 districts now represented by Republicans...

As you may know, there will be an election for your representative to Congress in November this year. Do you think you will definitely vote to re-elect [your incumbent House representative] to Congress, probably vote to re-elect [your incumbent House representative], probably vote for someone else, or definitely vote for someone else?
DEMOCRAT
chart

REPUBLICAN
chart


Now I'm going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. (Skipped if open seat)

I WON'T vote to re-elect [my incumbent House representative] because we need new people who will fix Washington and get things done.
v
I WILL vote to re-elect [my incumbent House representative] because [he or she] is doing a good job and addressing issues that are important to us.

chart


I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the election for Congress this year, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for (DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE) or (REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE)?

chart
 
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cpwill

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well dangit, i can't get the last two charts to work.
 

Redress

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Redress

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Let's see if this works. These the charts you wanted?

redress-albums-stuffz-picture67111902-chart1.png


redress-albums-stuffz-picture67111904-chart2.png
 

cpwill

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hooray! all :bow: before redress!
 

Deuce

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Wait. voting for the incumbent, or voting for someone else.

What the hell could "other" be? What options are there besides "Incumbent" and "Not Incumbent"
 
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Renae

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Wait. voting for the incumbent, or voting for someone else.

What the hell could "other" be? What options are there besides "Incumbent" and "Not Incumbent"


Having a hard time accepting that that the Myth that the GOP is in just as much danger as the Dems is being burst before your eyes? I think Nov. is going to be a very sad time for you.
 

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Having a hard time accepting that that the Myth that the GOP is in just as much danger as the Dems is being burst before your eyes? I think Nov. is going to be a very sad time for you.

Only if America has a very short memory. Why would they want to return power to the party that got us into this mess in the first place? The answer - they don't. Americans by and large are not happy with either party....THAT is going to be what prevents the landfall that you are so desperately hoping for in November. It ain't gonna happen. Sure...the GOP will pick up quite a few seats, the same as every minority party does in an off-year presidential election, but they won't gain enough to regain the house or senate. Just follow some of the blogs that cover the races. Very very few are predicting the GOP gaining either.
 

cpwill

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Only if America has a very short memory. Why would they want to return power to the party that got us into this mess in the first place

because they only got us into the mess. whereas the current party has taken that mess and made it worse. it's the difference between having Republicans shoot you in the foot, and having Democrats shoot you in the face.

The answer - they don't. Americans by and large are not happy with either party....THAT is going to be what prevents the landfall that you are so desperately hoping for in November. It ain't gonna happen. Sure...the GOP will pick up quite a few seats, the same as every minority party does in an off-year presidential election, but they won't gain enough to regain the house or senate. Just follow some of the blogs that cover the races. Very very few are predicting the GOP gaining either.

I guess we will see :)
 

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hooray! all :bow: before redress!

Note that this is a essentially a generic poll, so I would not read too much into it.

By the way, I got the charts up by downloading them to desktop and then uploading them to my album, then posting that link. I know how frustrating it can be to not get images to show, so even though I don't like the result, and don't think you can read too much into them, it was the right thing to do to get them up for you.
 

Deuce

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Having a hard time accepting that that the Myth that the GOP is in just as much danger as the Dems is being burst before your eyes? I think Nov. is going to be a very sad time for you.

No. Some of us don't see ABSOLUTELY EVERYTHING in terms of partisanism. Some of us actually mean what we say and nothing else.

Incumbent. Not-Incumbent.
Seems to cover all possibilities, unless "screw it I'm not voting" counts under "other."
 

obvious Child

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Note that this is a essentially a generic poll, so I would not read too much into it.

Indeed. Especially since it's a Cpwill post as well. I have learned he never presents the actual facts.

Rather then do 1,000 voter surveys in each state and provide that data, we get a congolermation that essentially makes no distinctions.

The title of the thread is not supported by the OP. What would support the title would be race by race graphs showing that in specific races that the GOP holds 10% leads. What we got was little more then a generic poll. Next.

While bad statistics is pretty prevelant here with more then a few "Conservatives" considering statistics to be liberalism (that's pretty frightening), we should at least strive for basically accurate stats.
 

Renae

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No. Some of us don't see ABSOLUTELY EVERYTHING in terms of partisanism. Some of us actually mean what we say and nothing else.

Incumbent. Not-Incumbent.
Seems to cover all possibilities, unless "screw it I'm not voting" counts under "other."


giggle


snicker


GUFFAW
No. Some of us don't see ABSOLUTELY EVERYTHING in terms of partisanism. Some of us actually mean what we say and nothing else.

Seriously though, do you get paid to post this stuff? If not... oh man that adds to the comedic value of some of your posts.
 
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