GOP has a problem with no Trump on the ballot

[Puigb]

In 2016 with Trump on the ballot, they won. In 2018 with no Trump on the ballot...they got their asses handed to them. In the 2020 general election with Trump on the ballot, they made gains in the house...based entirely on Trump's coattails. In the 2021 GA senate runoffs with no Trump on the ballot...they lost. Trump, as awful as he is, was able to bring out voters who don't normally vote to vote for him.

Now the GOP with no Trump is utter leaderless, with a radicalized base reduced to trolling Biden videos on youtube, or rambling about civil wars on the comments section of FOX, NewsMax, and OANN articles.

The GOP establishment is going to want to nominate someone like Nikki Haley or even low rent Trump wannabe Tom Cotton in 2024, but will the base go for that? Will that candidate even come CLOSE to Trump's 74 million votes? IMO, not a chance. Interesting times we live in for sure. Maybe Trump will start that "Patriot Party", and obliterate the GOP for good.

 

[ultmd]

In 2016 with Trump on the ballot, they won. In 2018 with no Trump on the ballot...they got their asses handed to them. In the 2020 general election with Trump on the ballot, they made gains in the house...based entirely on Trump's coattails. In the 2021 GA senate runoffs with no Trump on the ballot...they lost. Trump, as awful as he is, was able to bring out voters who don't normally vote to vote for him.

Now the GOP with no Trump is utter leaderless, with a radicalized base reduced to trolling Biden videos on youtube, or rambling about civil wars on the comments section of FOX, NewsMax, and OANN articles.

The GOP establishment is going to want to nominate someone like Nikki Haley or even low rent Trump wannabe Tom Cotton in 2024, but will the base go for that? Will that candidate even come CLOSE to Trump's 74 million votes? IMO, not a chance. Interesting times we live in for sure. Maybe Trump will start that "Patriot Party", and obliterate the GOP for good.

While I agree that the GOP is headed for a major split, I somewhat disagree with your assessment, here.

I think it's clear that the reason Gopers made gains in the House was because of the pandemic. Democrats were following best health protocols and not campaigning in person. They were using social media to communicate with their voters, and that LACK of personal connection really hurt Democrats in congressional races. But the GOPers weren't worried about any of that. They were out in the streets, going door to door, meeting other COVID-skeptics and deniers (i.e. Trump/Gop voters)...and that really helped turnout for them in those competitive House races.

Biden didn't have that problem, because he had the money to conduct a national campaign. House Democrats didn't have that advantage working for them...and some of them paid the price for it.

But that's really all that happened in the 2020 House races. Without COVID, the Dems would have picked up seats in the House, just like they did in the Senate.

 

[Puigb]

While I agree that the GOP is headed for a major split, I somewhat disagree with your assessment, here.

I think it's clear that the reason Gopers made gains in the House was because of the pandemic. Democrats were following best health protocols and not campaigning in person. They were using social media to communicate with their voters, and that LACK of personal connection really hurt Democrats in congressional races. But the GOPers weren't worried about any of that. They were out in the streets, going door to door, meeting other COVID-skeptics and deniers (i.e. Trump/Gop voters)...and that really helped turnout for them in those competitive House races.

Biden didn't have that problem, because he had the money to conduct a national campaign. House Democrats didn't have that advantage working for them...and some of them paid the price for it.

But that's really all that happened in the 2020 House races. Without COVID, the Dems would have picked up seats in the House, just like they did in the Senate.

We'll see eventually. You could be right, heck maybe we are both right to some degree. But I can't think of a single GOP candidate right now who could garner Trump's support among the radical base. The ONLY way that will happen is if Trump plays "kingmaker" in 2024 and backs a candidate, and rallies for him (or her?). Regardless, the GOP is screwed in the long run. That piece of shit Lindsey Graham was correct in 2016 when he tweeted "if we nominate Trump, we will be destroyed". The GOP can no longer rely on white grievance/cultural grievances to win, and since they have no actual policy besides cut taxes for the rich...they are toast.

 

[Cameron]

In 2016 with Trump on the ballot, they won. In 2018 with no Trump on the ballot...they got their asses handed to them. In the 2020 general election with Trump on the ballot, they made gains in the house...based entirely on Trump's coattails. In the 2021 GA senate runoffs with no Trump on the ballot...they lost. Trump, as awful as he is, was able to bring out voters who don't normally vote to vote for him.

Now the GOP with no Trump is utter leaderless, with a radicalized base reduced to trolling Biden videos on youtube, or rambling about civil wars on the comments section of FOX, NewsMax, and OANN articles.

The GOP establishment is going to want to nominate someone like Nikki Haley or even low rent Trump wannabe Tom Cotton in 2024, but will the base go for that? Will that candidate even come CLOSE to Trump's 74 million votes? IMO, not a chance. Interesting times we live in for sure. Maybe Trump will start that "Patriot Party", and obliterate the GOP for good.

Fact is that if Trump had kept his mouth shut, the GOP would probably still have control of the Senate. The GOP made gains in the House and limited their Senate losses in November because people who voted for Biden split their downticket voting ... suggesting they likely would have preferred to vote for a Republican for POTUS, but couldn't stomach voting for Trump. Over the past four years, Trump created millions more anti-GOP voters than he expanded the GOP.

If the GOP wants to win future elections, it's base will have to suck it up and vote for mainstream Republicans, the same way the Dem base has sucked it up and voted for mainstream Democrats.

 

[Puigb]

Fact is that if Trump had kept his mouth shut, the GOP would probably still have control of the Senate. The GOP made gains in the House and limited their Senate losses in November because people who voted for Biden split their downticket voting ... suggesting they likely would have preferred to vote for a Republican for POTUS, but couldn't stomach voting for Trump.

If the GOP wants to win future elections, it's base will have to suck it up and vote for mainstream Republicans, the same way the Dem base has sucked it up and voted for mainstream Democrats.

There Wasn’t That Much Split-Ticket Voting In 2020

The narrative of the 2020 election is that Joe Biden did pretty well … but down-ballot Democrats, not so much. And while this is true if you look simply at the …

fivethirtyeight.com

 

[Cameron]

There Wasn’t That Much Split-Ticket Voting In 2020

The narrative of the 2020 election is that Joe Biden did pretty well … but down-ballot Democrats, not so much. And while this is true if you look simply at the …

fivethirtyeight.com

Perhaps I am wrong on that point, although that article focuses primarily on Senate races and admits there is not a whole lot of data yet at the district level in House races.

 

[Bullseye]

Wonderful LW c

In 2016 with Trump on the ballot, they won. In 2018 with no Trump on the ballot...they got their asses handed to them. In the 2020 general election with Trump on the ballot, they made gains in the house...based entirely on Trump's coattails. In the 2021 GA senate runoffs with no Trump on the ballot...they lost. Trump, as awful as he is, was able to bring out voters who don't normally vote to vote for him.

Now the GOP with no Trump is utter leaderless, with a radicalized base reduced to trolling Biden videos on youtube, or rambling about civil wars on the comments section of FOX, NewsMax, and OANN articles.

The GOP establishment is going to want to nominate someone like Nikki Haley or even low rent Trump wannabe Tom Cotton in 2024, but will the base go for that? Will that candidate even come CLOSE to Trump's 74 million votes? IMO, not a chance. Interesting times we live in for sure. Maybe Trump will start that "Patriot Party", and obliterate the GOP for good.

Worried about which ballots to steal?

 

[calamity]

In 2016 with Trump on the ballot, they won. In 2018 with no Trump on the ballot...they got their asses handed to them. In the 2020 general election with Trump on the ballot, they made gains in the house...based entirely on Trump's coattails. In the 2021 GA senate runoffs with no Trump on the ballot...they lost. Trump, as awful as he is, was able to bring out voters who don't normally vote to vote for him.

Now the GOP with no Trump is utter leaderless, with a radicalized base reduced to trolling Biden videos on youtube, or rambling about civil wars on the comments section of FOX, NewsMax, and OANN articles.

The GOP establishment is going to want to nominate someone like Nikki Haley or even low rent Trump wannabe Tom Cotton in 2024, but will the base go for that? Will that candidate even come CLOSE to Trump's 74 million votes? IMO, not a chance. Interesting times we live in for sure. Maybe Trump will start that "Patriot Party", and obliterate the GOP for good.

You'll never get the redneck trailer trash to vote for Ted or Lindsey Graham. He might think they'll come out for him, but we all know Rafael Cruz and Lady G stand zero chance. So, yeah. It will be interesting to see who the GOP rally the racist scum who carried Trump over the top. Maybe that Hawley guy has the hateful touch.

Of course, they can always make Lauren Boebert his running mate. .lol

 

[Puigb]

Perhaps I am wrong on that point, although that article focuses primarily on Senate races and admits there is not a whole lot of data yet at the district level in House races.

in today's divided political climate, very little ticket splitting happens.

 

[Puigb]

You'll never get the redneck trailer trash to vote for Ted or Lindsey Graham. He might think they'll come out for him, but we all know Rafael Cruz and Lady G stand zero chance. So, yeah. It will be interesting to see who the GOP rally the racist scum who carried Trump over the top. Maybe that Hawley guy has the hateful touch.

Of course, they can always make Lauren Boebert his running mate. .lol

Hawley is such a wannabe...no way he can replicate Trump's support, even if he played a large part in inciting low IQ Trumpers to violence on January 6th. Him and Tom Cotton don't have the "charisma", or fake "alpha" persona that Trump exhibits to win over the radicals. I honestly have no idea who the hell they nominate in 2024, but I'm certain it will be a long drawn out battle between the Trumpers and "establishment" for who leads the GOP in the future.

 

[Puigb]

Wonderful LW c

Worried about which ballots to steal?

You know, it's funny how Trump packed the SC to specifically help steal the election for him, only for them to give him a collective middle finger. Not because they have any morals (they don't), but because the margins in multiple states were too large to overturn with a straight face. Bush got the SC to steal the election for him...because he only had to do it with hundreds of votes in 1 state his brother was the governor of

 

[Chomsky]

In 2016 with Trump on the ballot, they won. In 2018 with no Trump on the ballot...they got their asses handed to them. In the 2020 general election with Trump on the ballot, they made gains in the house...based entirely on Trump's coattails. In the 2021 GA senate runoffs with no Trump on the ballot...they lost. Trump, as awful as he is, was able to bring out voters who don't normally vote to vote for him.

Now the GOP with no Trump is utter leaderless, with a radicalized base reduced to trolling Biden videos on youtube, or rambling about civil wars on the comments section of FOX, NewsMax, and OANN articles.

The GOP establishment is going to want to nominate someone like Nikki Haley or even low rent Trump wannabe Tom Cotton in 2024, but will the base go for that? Will that candidate even come CLOSE to Trump's 74 million votes? IMO, not a chance. Interesting times we live in for sure. Maybe Trump will start that "Patriot Party", and obliterate the GOP for good.

I disagree with the bolded. The GOP gained seats, despite Trump. How else can you explain the ticket splitting?

 

[OscarLevant]

In 2016 with Trump on the ballot, they won. In 2018 with no Trump on the ballot...they got their asses handed to them. In the 2020 general election with Trump on the ballot, they made gains in the house...based entirely on Trump's coattails. In the 2021 GA senate runoffs with no Trump on the ballot...they lost. Trump, as awful as he is, was able to bring out voters who don't normally vote to vote for him.

Now the GOP with no Trump is utter leaderless, with a radicalized base reduced to trolling Biden videos on youtube, or rambling about civil wars on the comments section of FOX, NewsMax, and OANN articles.

The GOP establishment is going to want to nominate someone like Nikki Haley or even low rent Trump wannabe Tom Cotton in 2024, but will the base go for that? Will that candidate even come CLOSE to Trump's 74 million votes? IMO, not a chance. Interesting times we live in for sure. Maybe Trump will start that "Patriot Party", and obliterate the GOP for good.

It will take a while, but they'll get over him.

Things will go back to normal.

And that's a good thing.

 

[Crovax]

You'll never get the redneck trailer trash to vote for Ted or Lindsey Graham. He might think they'll come out for him, but we all know Rafael Cruz and Lady G stand zero chance. So, yeah. It will be interesting to see who the GOP rally the racist scum who carried Trump over the top. Maybe that Hawley guy has the hateful touch.

Of course, they can always make Lauren Boebert his running mate. .lol

Romney got a higher % than Trump either election. Those red neck trailer trash you are referring to are the working class of the Midwest and the only thing holding the democrats in power

 

[joluoto]

Four years is a long time, and Trumpists hate Trump now. I think Hawley will be the one that can pick them up, no one likes Ted, even though he will definitely try to be the next Trump, and Lindsey Graham is such a joke, that everyone sees he's fake from miles away.

 

[Cameron]

in today's divided political climate, very little ticket splitting happens.

It still makes logical sense to me that in this time when so many traditional Republicans despised Trump, they might vote for Biden but still vote for Republican House/Senate candidates. But if that is not what the data shows then I guess it didn't happen.

 

[Puigb]

It still makes logical sense to me that in this time when so many traditional Republicans despised Trump, they might vote for Biden but still vote for Republican House/Senate candidates. But if that is not what the data shows then I guess it didn't happen.

Trump retained like a 95% approval with Republicans. Gallup has Trump's final approval rating among Republicans even higher than Saint Reagans. Most Republicans worship that dolt. The Lincoln Project Republicans are a tiny minority.

 

[Puigb]

Romney got a higher % than Trump either election. Those red neck trailer trash you are referring to are the working class of the Midwest and the only thing holding the democrats in power

This is false. And Romney wouldn't come close to 74 million votes, and you know it. No way the GOP base nominates a Romney type in 2024.

Also, black voters are the backbone of the Democratic Party. They saved Biden in the primaries, and ultimately got him elected president.

 

[Puigb]

I disagree with the bolded. The GOP gained seats, despite Trump. How else can you explain the ticket splitting?

Read the article I posted, there wasn't much.

 

[jnug]

In 2016 with Trump on the ballot, they won. In 2018 with no Trump on the ballot...they got their asses handed to them. In the 2020 general election with Trump on the ballot, they made gains in the house...based entirely on Trump's coattails. In the 2021 GA senate runoffs with no Trump on the ballot...they lost. Trump, as awful as he is, was able to bring out voters who don't normally vote to vote for him.

Now the GOP with no Trump is utter leaderless, with a radicalized base reduced to trolling Biden videos on youtube, or rambling about civil wars on the comments section of FOX, NewsMax, and OANN articles.

The GOP establishment is going to want to nominate someone like Nikki Haley or even low rent Trump wannabe Tom Cotton in 2024, but will the base go for that? Will that candidate even come CLOSE to Trump's 74 million votes? IMO, not a chance. Interesting times we live in for sure. Maybe Trump will start that "Patriot Party", and obliterate the GOP for good.

"based entirely on Trump's coattails"
Entirely questionable.

Many voted against Trump in the Presidential and for Republicans down ballot as a check against a swerve Left by Biden as President.

Hard for Trump to talk as coattails when he got his tail feathers burned as badly as he did, though of course he will once hthe has some sort of social network platform of merit. Odd that nobody notices Donnie avoids the microphones.

If the "Big Tent" DEM's can keep their people voting, and the Independents continue done with Trump in 2020 numbers and most especially if Big Money keeps fleeing Trump, the GOP is done with Trump on the ballot. That is their dilemma.....damned if they do and damned if they don't.

 

[joluoto]

I don't think GOP is in any problem, in 2020 Trump was their biggest detriment on the ticket, they still gained ground in the House and tied the Senate, despte losing the Presidency, which tells that there were voters who voted Biden, but Republican down ticket.

 

[Craig234]

They're going to solve this by many of the Republicans changing their name to trump.

 

[Craig234]

I don't think GOP is in any problem, in 2020 Trump was their biggest detriment on the ticket, they still gained ground in the House and tied the Senate, despte losing the Presidency, which tells that there were voters who voted Biden, but Republican down ticket.

They lost the Senate.