Goodbye Grotius, Hello Putin

[Rogue Valley]

Goodbye Grotius, Hello Putin

Putin examining a map of Ukraine's Crimea oblast.

11/29/18
Sunday’s encounter between Russian and Ukrainian vessels in the Kerch Strait, the entryway to the Sea of Azov east of the Crimean peninsula, revived an age-old question in international politics: Can a coastal nation own the sea? International law says no; authoritarian states such as China and Russia say yes. Which view prevails may depend on whether seafaring societies band together and push back effectively against Moscow and Beijing. In recent months, Moscow has taken to treating the Kerch Strait as a border checkpoint—a point of entry to sovereign Russian territory. Guards demand that Ukrainian ships request permission before transiting the strait; Ukraine rejects Russia’s right to regulate passage through the sole gateway to Ukraine’s southeasterly seacoast. Moscow has upped the stakes because it can. The new policy flouts a 2003 bilateral agreement designating the Kerch Strait and Sea of Azov “historically internal waters of the Russian Federation and the Ukraine.” The pact guarantees ships flying the flags of both countries “free navigation” through these seaways. Barricading the Kerch Strait makes the Sea of Azov a Russian lake. But Moscow may have more ambitious goals. Indeed, imposing control of the strait helps Russian President Vladimir Putin and his government chip away at the U.S.-led legal order of the seas, much as President Xi Jinping’s China has eroded navigational freedoms in the South China Sea. Both Beijing and Moscow covet the right and power to dictate what happens in offshore waters. They have resorted to armed force to buttress their extralegal claims and are counting on competitors to be unable or unwilling to contest those claims effectively.

Over the longer term, Russia can hope to browbeat Ukraine into acceding to its de-facto sovereignty over the Sea of Azov, just as China has evidently cowed the Philippines (and is attempting to cow Vietnam and other maritime claimants) into tacitly accepting its possession of reefs and atolls such as Scarborough Shoal and Mischief Reef. China’s navy and coast guard ensconce themselves on islands and atolls and dare outmatched opponents to dislodge them. This is happening despite a 2016 international court ruling pronouncing China’s seizure of features within the Philippine “exclusive economic zone” unlawful. Under the traditional understanding of maritime law, as codified in the 1982 U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea, sovereignty applies only to dry land and to a 12-nautical-mile “territorial sea,” or strip of sea immediately offshore. Neither China nor Russia appears to accept that land-bound doctrine. The two countries seem to think they can redefine water as national territory. If they get their way, lawmakers in Beijing and Moscow will make the rules stipulating what navies and merchant fleets may do there. They will restrict military activities in particular. To combat Russia’s low-level aggression, the United States and its allies must first admit they have a problem. Freedom of the sea is indivisible. If Russia makes itself the de facto sovereign of the Sea of Azov, future moves in its incremental strategy will soon follow. Its strategy will imperil the broader Black Sea and eventually the eastern Mediterranean Sea and the Baltic Sea. Washington must push back hard.

As we have seen in both Georgia and Ukraine, Russia (and China in Asia) believes that "incremental warfare" is an important component in the quest for expansion. Russia never withdraws. Kremlin forces are constantly seeking to expand occupied territory and this doctrine has now been adopted by the Russian Navy as well. Just last week Moscow said it would be restricting ships in the Arctic. Without serious international push-back, Moscow and Beijing will be swallowing seas and strait's and denying access as whims strike. They will dare the world to resort to force to free international waters captured via "incremental warfare". This situation is becoming undeniable and untenable.

 

[DaveFagan]

Rogue, your continuous tirades against all things Russian make one suspect that you have an agenda or are supported by an agenda generating mechanism, perhaps the Pentagon, eh? For Russia own security in response to a flailing Ukraine, it was necessary to annex Crimea. Perhaps the forces that destabilized the Ukraine and initiated the Coup d"Etat should have planned better for the long term results of their subterfuge? If Ukraine wants to have waterbourne traffic between Odessa and Mariupol, they would be well advised to kiss the big brown spot between Russian cheeks. As regards the Arctic the Russian 11 time zone Nation located average 55 degrees North latitude and bordering the Actic certainly is well within its' rights to establish control over proprietary waterways. The icemelt caused by AGW is making these waterways navigable and Trump is going to make sure AGW continues so you need to take your complaints to the source. The great and stable genius that says there is no AGW. Ergo, not to worry about those Arctic waterways, eh?
/

 

[Litwin]

Goodbye Grotius, Hello Putin

Putin examining a map of Ukraine's Crimea oblast.



As we have seen in both Georgia and Ukraine, Russia (and China in Asia) believes that "incremental warfare" is an important component in the quest for expansion. Russia never withdraws. Kremlin forces are constantly seeking to expand occupied territory and this doctrine has now been adopted by the Russian Navy as well. Just last week Moscow said it would be restricting ships in the Arctic. Without serious international push-back, Moscow and Beijing will be swallowing seas and strait's and denying access as whims strike. They will dare the world to resort to force to free international waters captured via "incremental warfare". This situation is becoming undeniable and untenable.

juchi methods are well-known

 

[Westphalian]

Rogue, your continuous tirades against all things Russian make one suspect that you have an agenda or are supported by an agenda generating mechanism, perhaps the Pentagon, eh? For Russia own security in response to a flailing Ukraine, it was necessary to annex Crimea. Perhaps the forces that destabilized the Ukraine and initiated the Coup d"Etat should have planned better for the long term results of their subterfuge? If Ukraine wants to have waterbourne traffic between Odessa and Mariupol, they would be well advised to kiss the big brown spot between Russian cheeks. As regards the Arctic the Russian 11 time zone Nation located average 55 degrees North latitude and bordering the Actic certainly is well within its' rights to establish control over proprietary waterways. The icemelt caused by AGW is making these waterways navigable and Trump is going to make sure AGW continues so you need to take your complaints to the source. The great and stable genius that says there is no AGW. Ergo, not to worry about those Arctic waterways, eh?
/

Yes, RV is obviously a prolific Russia basher, and his agenda is very clear. I'm not sure who he works for, but if not of his own agency then is is indeed a troll.

This article is tosh by a neo-con party of war. Crimea was a completely unique situation, and the thing which rankles the neo-cons is that no Russians died in its liberation. They have spent 4 years puzzling over why Russia was able to liberate Crimea so quickly and successfully whilst the US leaves a trail of death and continuous war wherever it treads.

As for the Arctic, well you rightly point out geography. Russia will dominate the Arctic for this reason, whilst the US will have to be a bit part player for the same reason.

Let's cut to the chase - the author wants war, and is trying to demonise Russia in order to convince everyone that this is a necessity. After all, the US hasn't started any new wars for a few years. The war addicts are having a hard time.

 

[Chagos]

Yes, RV is obviously a prolific Russia basher, and his agenda is very clear. I'm not sure who he works for, but if not of his own agency then is is indeed a troll.........................~

Well, aren't we all lucky that there's no respective counterpart on these forums?

Like, say, you?:lamo

 

[Rogue Valley]

Rogue, your continuous tirades against all things Russian make one suspect that you have an agenda or are supported by an agenda generating mechanism, perhaps the Pentagon, eh? For Russia own security in response to a flailing Ukraine, it was necessary to annex Crimea. Perhaps the forces that destabilized the Ukraine and initiated the Coup d"Etat should have planned better for the long term results of their subterfuge? If Ukraine wants to have waterbourne traffic between Odessa and Mariupol, they would be well advised to kiss the big brown spot between Russian cheeks. As regards the Arctic the Russian 11 time zone Nation located average 55 degrees North latitude and bordering the Actic certainly is well within its' rights to establish control over proprietary waterways. The icemelt caused by AGW is making these waterways navigable and Trump is going to make sure AGW continues so you need to take your complaints to the source. The great and stable genius that says there is no AGW. Ergo, not to worry about those Arctic waterways, eh?
/

Nobody forces you to read my threads Fagan. And speaking of complaints ..... I believe most here are mighty tired of your anti-US conspiracy babble.

You love Russia so much? Then move there. I'm sure the Russian Migration Service would find you a nice little apartment in Arkhangelsk.