Global Warming Will be the Death of Earth

[Napoleon's Nightingale]

Im not sure when you mean by earth being more volcanically active in the past, as the current co2 spike has occured pretty much in the present in the last 200 years. Volcanic activity during this time cannot explain that spike. Fossil fuel burning emits over 100 time more co2 into the atmosphere than volcanoes do.

Again, Co2 is not the only greenhouse gas that has a major effect. A combonation of gasses is required. This process has been going on for hundreds of thousands of years without human interference. Humans are not responsible. In fact, it has only affected the process in a teeny tiny microscopic way.

I am not arguing for global warming at this time. I am showing that human emissions are the major cause of the co2 spike in the last 200 years. So the claim that is often heard that humans are too insignificant to compete with natural phenomenon is wrong. We are able to do just that and are currently out doing volcanoes at emitting co2.

There have been more than 2,000 volcanic erruptions and continuing erruptions worldwide in the past 50 years alone. Not to mention the fact that the world's supper volcanos are overdue for another erruption. The one in Yellowstone would cause a global climatic catastrophe and thats just one. Compared to the total amount of Co2 released by volcanos..the amount humans have realead is microscopic. In fact, Mt. Popo emits 40,000 tons of carbon dioxide per day and all of the worlds volcanos emit an average of 100 million tons per year.

Just about all the extra co2 must be due to human emissions. This can be worked out just from the numbers.

Humans have only emitted 5% of the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

Third the rate of increase of co2 levels in the atmosphere has itself been increasing since the 1800s, and follows the rate at which fossil fuel burning has slowly increased over time.

The Co2 levels began increasing before the industrial revolution. It's a natural process.

 

[OnionCollection]

Again, Co2 is not the only greenhouse gas that has a major effect. A combonation of gasses is required. This process has been going on for hundreds of thousands of years without human interference. Humans are not responsible. In fact, it has only affected the process in a teeny tiny microscopic way.

Yes the climate has existed for millions of years without human interference. But now it does have human interference, and we are able to significantly change the composition of the atmosphere and an important cycle in nature.

There have been more than 2,000 volcanic erruptions and continuing erruptions worldwide in the past 50 years alone. Not to mention the fact that the world's supper volcanos are overdue for another erruption. The one in Yellowstone would cause a global climatic catastrophe and thats just one.

None of this explains the exponential increase of atmospheric co2 levels in the past 200 years. Volcanic activity has not exponentially increased, and a supervolcano has not occured in this time.

Compared to the total amount of Co2 released by volcanos..the amount humans have realead is microscopic. In fact, Mt. Popo emits 40,000 tons of carbon dioxide per day and all of the worlds volcanos emit an average of 100 million tons per year.

Human burning of fossil fuels alone currently produces 26 billion tons of co2 into the atmosphere per year. That is far higher than what volcanoes emit given the figure you gave.

Humans have only emitted 5% of the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

There's about 700 billion tons of carbon in the atmosphere, and there was about 520 tons of carbon in the atmosphere 250 years ago. So the increase in the last quarter of a millenium has been less than 200 tons of carbon.

In the last 250 years humans have released about 290 billion tons of carbon into the atmosphere through burning of fossil fuels. So human emissions easily account for all of the increase in co2 levels over the last 150 years.

The Co2 levels began increasing before the industrial revolution. It's a natural process.

co2 levels had been relatively stable for 1000's of years before this rapid increase in the last 200. The only source of co2 that has changed significantly in the last 200 years is man. 250 years ago man was emitting a negliable amount of co2 into the atmosphere per year. This amount exponentially increased over the proceeding 250 years and today 26 billion tons is being added per year. That's a massive amount of co2 being added to the atmosphere per year which wasn't being added 250 years ago. The amount volcanoes emit is insignificant in comparison.

 

[Napoleon's Nightingale]

Yes the climate has existed for millions of years without human interference. But now it does have human interference, and we are able to significantly change the composition of the atmosphere and an important cycle in nature.

Lol not alone.

None of this explains the exponential increase of atmospheric co2 levels in the past 200 years. Volcanic activity has not exponentially increased, and a supervolcano has not occured in this time.

Yes it has. In fact, the worlds supper volcanos began errupting for the first time in over 400,000 years. The super volcanos that have errupted in the past 200 years include Mt. St. Helens, Mt. El. Chichon, Mt. Pinatubo, Mt. Krakatao, and Mt.Tambora. All of those also affected the world's climate and there are others that have as well in the past 200 years including Mt. Mayon, Mt. Coseguina, Mt. Avachinskaya Sopka, Mt. Katmai, Mt. Agung, Mt. Pelee, Mt. La Soufriere, and Mt. Santa Maria. Indivudually, these volcanos have all affected the climate due to their release of Co2 and other gasses more in one belch than the entire human civilization has. They've lowered tempteratures in some reasons by several degrees. Sulfur dioxide has more of an effect than Co2 and those individual volcanos released more than the entire human civilization has. In fact, Mt. Pinatubo released 15 - 30 megatons of it in one erruption in 1993.

There's about 700 billion tons of carbon in the atmosphere, and there was about 520 tons of carbon in the atmosphere 250 years ago. So the increase in the last quarter of a millenium has been less than 200 tons of carbon.

In other words, it's not as bad as it's been made out to be. If we've released 290 billion total in 200 years and theres only a 200 ton total increase then it's almost not worth mentioning.

So human emissions easily account for all of the increase in co2 levels over the last 150 years.

Thats not true. Multiply 100 million tons by 250 and you'll sea that volcanos have released more.

co2 levels had been relatively stable for 1000's of years before this rapid increase in the last 200. The only source of co2 that has changed significantly in the last 200 years is man. 250 years ago man was emitting a negliable amount of co2 into the atmosphere per year. This amount exponentially increased over the proceeding 250 years and today 26 billion tons is being added per year. That's a massive amount of co2 being added to the atmosphere per year which wasn't being added 250 years ago. The amount volcanoes emit is insignificant in comparison.

Not really. The Co2 increase began several hundred years before the industrial revolution.

 

[C.J.]

Yes the climate has existed for millions of years without human interference. But now it does have human interference, and we are able to significantly change the composition of the atmosphere and an important cycle in nature.

Not really, we cannot really do anything about the greenhouse gas which make up approximately 95% of all greenhouse gasses.

Human burning of fossil fuels alone currently produces 26 billion tons of co2 into the atmosphere per year. That is far higher than what volcanoes emit given the figure you gave.

Actually I believe you will find it is closer to 6 billion tons per year, don't know where you got the 26 billion ton figure from. I believe also Napoleon's Nightingale made a typo on his volcano emissions per year, he stated 100 million tons, but it's actually closer to 100 billion tons. Another 90 billion tons or so are contributed by the biologic activity of the oceans. This makes the human contribution approximately 3-4%.

There's about 700 billion tons of carbon in the atmosphere, and there was about 520 tons of carbon in the atmosphere 250 years ago. So the increase in the last quarter of a millenium has been less than 200 tons of carbon.

That's totally in error. We have at any one time a resident amount of co2 equal to 2.1145 x 10 to the 12th power tons. Human efforts contribute 7 billion tons (7 x 10 to the 9th power tons), or approximately 3-4% per year. (Sorry, I did not see a way to do superscripts and subscripts).

In the last 250 years humans have released about 290 billion tons of carbon into the atmosphere through burning of fossil fuels. So human emissions easily account for all of the increase in co2 levels over the last 150 years.

See above, this is in error also.

co2 levels had been relatively stable for 1000's of years before this rapid increase in the last 200. The only source of co2 that has changed significantly in the last 200 years is man. 250 years ago man was emitting a negliable amount of co2 into the atmosphere per year. This amount exponentially increased over the proceeding 250 years and today 26 billion tons is being added per year. That's a massive amount of co2 being added to the atmosphere per year which wasn't being added 250 years ago. The amount volcanoes emit is insignificant in comparison.

Again, read above, and it shows most of this in error.

 

[OnionCollection]

Yes the climate has existed for millions of years without human interference. But now it does have human interference, and we are able to significantly change the composition of the atmosphere and an important cycle in nature.

Not really, we cannot really do anything about the greenhouse gas which make up approximately 95% of all greenhouse gasses.

A 40% increase in co2 levels in the atmosphere is a significant change in the composition of the atmosphere. It is also a change upon the carbon cycle, which is an important cycle in nature. Any increase in co2 levels will affect the climate. Note that I didn't say how much it would affect it.

As for warming, not all greenhouse gases have an equal effect. CO2 is a forcing, and water vapour is a feedback. Added CO2 will remain in the atmosphere for a hundred years. Added water vapour will exchange in a matter of days.

Actually I believe you will find it is closer to 6 billion tons per year, don't know where you got the 26 billion ton figure from.

There are 7 Billion tons of carbon in 26 billion tons of carbon dioxide. Carbon dioxide has roughly 3.6 times the mass of carbon. Emissions are generally given in tons of carbon. I converted to the mass of carbon dioxide in order to compare with Napoleon's Nightingale's figure of carbon dioxide emissions from volcanoes. (Carbon emissions are mostly co2 anyway, and they will be by the time they hit the atmosphere).

I believe also Napoleon's Nightingale made a typo on his volcano emissions per year, he stated 100 million tons, but it's actually closer to 100 billion tons.

Napoleon Nightingale was about correct, although it could be as much as 250 million tons per year. It certainly isn't anywhere near 100 billion tons, and it only represents 1% of man made emissions of co2.

Another 90 billion tons or so are contributed by the biologic activity of the oceans. This makes the human contribution approximately 3-4%.

The oceans are a carbon sink and so remove carbon from the atmosphere, not add it. If it wasn't for the oceans the level of co2 in the atmosphere would be much higher than the 380ppm it is today. A recent study estimated that close to half of the carbon man has emitted from fossil fuels has been absorbed by the ocean.

There's about 700 billion tons of carbon in the atmosphere, and there was about 520 tons of carbon in the atmosphere 250 years ago. So the increase in the last quarter of a millenium has been less than 200 tons of carbon.

That's totally in error. We have at any one time a resident amount of co2 equal to 2.1145 x 10 to the 12th power tons.

It's the same thing. 2114 billion tons of CO2 is made up of 700 billion tons of carbon.

See above, this is in error also.

I recommend you re-read my post with the understanding that one ton of carbon dioxide is composed of 0.27 tons of carbon.

 

[C.J.]

A 40% increase in co2 levels in the atmosphere is a significant change in the composition of the atmosphere. It is also a change upon the carbon cycle, which is an important cycle in nature. Any increase in co2 levels will affect the climate. Note that I didn't say how much it would affect it.

Not really. When you add your 40% to a gas which constitutes less than 5 percent of all greenhouse gasses and represents approximately .0001192% of the atmosphere does not constitute a significant change in the composition of the atmosphere. Note I did not say it would have no effect on GH gasses.

As for warming, not all greenhouse gases have an equal effect. CO2 is a forcing, and water vapour is a feedback. Added CO2 will remain in the atmosphere for a hundred years. Added water vapour will exchange in a matter of days.

That's correct, all do not have an equal effect. When adjusted for their effects, water vapor still has a much more significant effect, which is why it usually is not included in computer models. It's also too difficult to factor cloud densities and coverage. Incidentally, water vapor is believed to be both forcing and a feedback. In fact if water vapor is not included, man's contribution to all other greenhouse gasses is about 5% (Of all GH gasses except WV) and if water vapor is included, mans total contribution th GH gasses is approximately .3%.

There are 7 Billion tons of carbon in 26 billion tons of carbon dioxide. Carbon dioxide has roughly 3.6 times the mass of carbon. Emissions are generally given in tons of carbon. I converted to the mass of carbon dioxide in order to compare with Napoleon's Nightingale's figure of carbon dioxide emissions from volcanoes. (Carbon emissions are mostly co2 anyway, and they will be by the time they hit the atmosphere).

Then you have made a large error, as man puts approximately 7 billion tons of co2 into the atmosphere annually, so there cannot be 7 tons of carbon. (Note, a typo, I meant 7, not 6 in my first post). Again, I do not know where you got the 26 billion tons of co2, I have seen sources run fron 6-7 billion tons of co2, but I have never seen one of 26 billion tons of co2.

Napoleon Nightingale was about correct, although it could be as much as 250 million tons per year. It certainly isn't anywhere near 100 billion tons, and it only represents 1% of man made emissions of co2.

You are correct here, and I should have stated volcanoes and decaying land plants add approximately 100 billion tons, volcanoes alone approximately 130 million tons.

The oceans are a carbon sink and so remove carbon from the atmosphere, not add it. If it wasn't for the oceans the level of co2 in the atmosphere would be much higher than the 380ppm it is today. A recent study estimated that close to half of the carbon man has emitted from fossil fuels has been absorbed by the ocean.

Of course oceans are a carbon sink, but read again what I said. I stated approximately 90 billion tons are added by biologic activity of the oceans, not by the oceans themselves, and yes the oceans do reabsorb some if not most.

It's the same thing. 2114 billion tons of CO2 is made up of 700 billion tons of carbon.

Again that's not what I stated. I stated the atmosphere has a resident amount of co2 of approximately 2.1145 x 10 to the 12th power tons (Over two trillion tons), and humans add approximately 7 billion tons of co2 annually. If you want to figure the carbon, figure it for the 2 trillion tons of resident CO2 and then figure the carbon of the 7 billion tons.

I recommend you re-read my post with the understanding that one ton of carbon dioxide is composed of 0.27 tons of carbon.

No need to, I am using co2 totally, so if you convert one of my figures to tons of carbon, you must convert them all.

 

[OnionCollection]

Then you have made a large error, as man puts approximately 7 billion tons of co2 into the atmosphere annually, so there cannot be 7 tons of carbon. (Note, a typo, I meant 7, not 6 in my first post). Again, I do not know where you got the 26 billion tons of co2, I have seen sources run fron 6-7 billion tons of co2, but I have never seen one of 26 billion tons of co2.

No man puts 7 billion tons of carbon into the atmosphere per year. This is the figure given by the Department of Energy:

http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/ftp/ndp030/global.1751_2002.ems
All emission estimates are expressed in million metric tons of carbon.

Note that there are 3.6 metric tons of co2 for each metric ton of carbon, so you have to multiply the current carbon emission by 3.6 in order to get the total mass of carbon dioxide produced through burning fossil fuels. The result is 26 billion tons.

As far as I am aware the 200 million ton measurement for volcanoes is already in carbon dioxide.

Of course oceans are a carbon sink, but read again what I said. I stated approximately 90 billion tons are added by biologic activity of the oceans, not by the oceans themselves, and yes the oceans do reabsorb some if not most.

The oceans (which includes the organisms within it) absorb more co2 than they emit, hence why they are a sink. So the oceans cannot explain the rise in atmospheric co2 over the last 250 years.

The only known large change in carbon sources in the last 250 years is the extra 7 billion (and counting) tons of carbon released by burning of fossil fuels per year. This added 7 billion being added that wasn't being added 250 years ago. This is plenty enough to overwhelm the natural sinks and result in a cumulation of co2 in the atmosphere per year.

Again that's not what I stated. I stated the atmosphere has a resident amount of co2 of approximately 2.1145 x 10 to the 12th power tons (Over two trillion tons), and humans add approximately 7 billion tons of co2 annually. If you want to figure the carbon, figure it for the 2 trillion tons of resident CO2 and then figure the carbon of the 7 billion tons.

The 7 billion emitted by burning fossil fuels each year is already in tons of carbon. The 2 trillion tons resident in the atmosphere is in co2. One of them has to be converted before comparing them.

No need to, I am using co2 totally, so if you convert one of my figures to tons of carbon, you must convert them all.

The problem is that you aren't using co2 totally. The 7 billion figure is only the mass of carbon emitted, not the mass of carbon dioxide which is 3.6 times higher.

 

[Canuck]

Americans use 25% of the oil produced annually
yet only have 5% of the earths population
no wonder kyoto is not being signed

clean up time america you owe for 25% of the clean up

 

[OnionCollection]

Americans use 25% of the oil produced annually
yet only have 5% of the earths population
no wonder kyoto is not being signed

clean up time america you owe for 25% of the clean up

wow talk about a blatent flame bait troll

 

[robin]

In addition to carbon from fossil fuels, billions of tons of boimass is burned each year in the form deforestation thus putting Co2 in the air.
Don't know how much crustaceans & plankton can remove each year by dumping carbonates on the sea floor thereby locking the that carbon out of the carbon cycle for a couple of hundred million years or so.
I'm sure the Co2 going into the air from deforestation & rate of burning of fossil fuels is far in excess of that.
My question is... surely water vapour is present in larger quantites than Co2 & that's a greenhouse gas I believe. How can a fraction of a %age of Co2 be that significant ?

 

[Napoleon's Nightingale]

My question is... surely water vapour is present in larger quantites than Co2 & that's a greenhouse gas I believe. How can a fraction of a %age of Co2 be that significant ?

Yes, water vapor is considered a greenhouse gas. In answer to your question, it's not. The alarmists would have you ignore the facts and believe otherwise.

 

[Scarecrow Akhbar]

Not only is there a thousand times more water vapor in the air than CO2, the amount variese tremendously.

But Chicken Little has to have the fallen acorn to point to, doesn't she?

The latest stumper: If the Siberian permafrost melts and released gigatons of methane into the atmosphere, will the million square miles of new farmland ruin the profitability of American farmers, or will they be a boon to John Deere stockholders?

 

[OnionCollection]

My question is... surely water vapour is present in larger quantites than Co2 & that's a greenhouse gas I believe. How can a fraction of a %age of Co2 be that significant ?

The answer: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=142

 

[stsburns]

With:

Populations:

U.S. 297,518,184

World 6,475,108,916

22:39 GMT (EST+5) Oct 26, 2005
http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/world.html

it is estimated that there are 650 million cars in the world
http://www.tspmag.com/t_stx.cfm?action=newspick&id=91

Just maybe, assuming the information at hand, if you could calcuate this right, PEOPLE are puting out more CO2 than CARS?!

 

[OnionCollection]

The numbers I found going around for breathing co2 were about 0.3kg co2 per person per day

So with a 6.5 billion world population it means the world human population exhales about 730 million tons of co2 per year.

The car estimate is more difficult because I don't have a clue where to find out how many gallons of gas cars worldwide burn per year.

But can find it for the US:

TOTAL FUEL CONSUMPTION - 2003

Motorcycles 191 million gallons (50.1 avg mpg x 1,800 miles per year per motorcycle)
Passenger Cars 74,590 million gallons (22.3 avg mpg x 13,000 miles per year per car)
Light Truck/SUV 56,302 million gallons (17.7 avg mpg x 13,000 miles per year per Lt Trk / SUV)
US Dept of Transportation, Bureau of Travel Statistics
http://www.ridetowork.org/docs/2005trans_facts.html

Thats roughly 130 billion gallons of gas burnt per year

Each gallon of gas produces about 9 kg of CO2

So that's about 1.1 billion tons of co2 per year in the US alone.

The world figure is probably 3 - 4 times higher.

So:
co2 from human respiration: ~730 million tons per year
co2 from automobiles: ~3-5 billion tons per year

It's reasonably close