global warming contributed to Katrina and Rita, says scientists

[128shot]

“Increasingly it looks like a smoking gun. It’s a fair conclusion to draw that global warming, caused to a substantial extent by people, is driving increased sea surface temperatures and increasing the violence of hurricanes.”

http://www.gnn.tv/headlines/5057/This_is_Global_Warming_Says_Environmental_Chief



new chapter in our modern life?

 

[Simon W. Moon]

It'll take more than one guy's say-so to be much of a case for something that's not exactly repeatable in a controlled environment.

 

[ALiberalModerate]

There have been a couple of studies so far on our current huricanne season that back this guys claims up (there are tons of studies on global warming that back up his claims). The scientific consensus is that Global Warming is a reality. Global Warming means warmer ocean temps. The ocean temps in the Gulf are at record levels. Warmer ocean temps mean more intense hurricanes.

However, hurricanes are cyclical. For a few decades you get less, then for a few decades you get more and they are more intense.

I would suspect that we are both in the natural cycle of stronger and more frequent hurricanes, and global warming has made that natural cycle more severe.

 

[Simon W. Moon]

Here're some helpful resources


Hurricanes, Climate, and Katrina: Research, Reviews, and Articles from Science Online

 

[Stinger]

http://www.gnn.tv/headlines/5057/This_is_Global_Warming_Says_Environmental_Chief

Quote:
“Increasingly it looks like a smoking gun. It’s a fair conclusion to draw that global warming, caused to a substantial extent by people, is driving increased sea surface temperatures and increasing the violence of hurricanes.”

new chapter in our modern life?

I believe most true scientist would condemn any such statement as a "scientific" conclusion.

And as George Will pointed out on ABC citing the numbers from the National Hurricane Center this morning and reported by NewsMax

" From 1901 till 1950 - when the U.S. economy was a fraction of its current size and fossil fuel consumption was next to nil - there were 34 hurricanes rated at Catagory 3, 4 or 5 in size on the Saffir Simpson scale.
In the latter half of the twentieth century - when U.S. manufacturing exploded, automobile use skyrocketed and rampant consumerism was the order of the day, hurricane activity actually decreased by nearly 20 percent, declining to 28 Catagory 3-5 hurricanes from 1951 to 2000......................... That's almost as low as the last five decades of the 19th century - when the overwhelming majority of Americans lived on farms, manual power was generated by watermills and cars had yet to be invented. From 1851 to 1900 there were 27 major hurricanes in the U.S."


http://newsmax.com/archives/ic/2005/9/25/131154.shtml


Somtimes things are as some state them to be, especially those who have not checked the numbers correctly.

Go and view an actual plot of the historical data and then come back and tell me if you believe the unsupported assertions by the gentle you cite are clearly indicated.

http://www.techcentralstation.com/091404D.html

""Global warming causes increased storminess" makes for interesting headlines. It also violates fundamental scientific truth and the lessons of history."

George H. Taylor, Certified Consulting Meteorologist and State Climatologist, Oregon.

 

[Stinger]

There have been a couple of studies so far on our current huricanne season that back this guys claims up (there are tons of studies on global warming that back up his claims). The scientific consensus is that Global Warming is a reality. Global Warming means warmer ocean temps. The ocean temps in the Gulf are at record levels. Warmer ocean temps mean more intense hurricanes.

However, hurricanes are cyclical. For a few decades you get less, then for a few decades you get more and they are more intense.

I would suspect that we are both in the natural cycle of stronger and more frequent hurricanes, and global warming has made that natural cycle more severe.

But since the data backs none of this up............................

 

[ALiberalModerate]

But since the data backs none of this up............................

If you read my post, it could be either way. It could be totally cyclical, or it could be to one degree or another influenced by global warming. Even when its cyclical, the oceans are in a warmer period. You cannot have strong hurricanes without warmer water. That is a fact. The only discussion is what made the water warmer.

I don't think anyone knows for certain. However, I will take the opinions of climatologists over George Will and Newsmax anyday.

 

[wxcrazytwo]

Global Warming plays a small role in hurricanes. This season as well as last season has been the start of a CYCLICAL pattern. Global Warming has been in the forefront because of the melting ice, etc. However, was global warming ever mentioned when Andrew hit, was it ever mentioned when the great Galveston cane hit, was it ever mentioned when Hugo, Mitch, and all the other major canes struck the U.S.? No, they were not. There is no doubt that we are heading towards a run away greenhouse, but its effect on canes is negligible. It all depends on the SST’s, MJO, La Nina/El Nino, SAL’S, and other meteorological phenomenon’s on how cane development will occur.

 

[Stinger]

If you read my post, it could be either way. It could be totally cyclical, or it could be to one degree or another influenced by global warming. Even when its cyclical, the oceans are in a warmer period. You cannot have strong hurricanes without warmer water. That is a fact. The only discussion is what made the water warmer.

Which go through cyclic temperature changes

I don't think anyone knows for certain. However, I will take the opinions of climatologists over George Will and Newsmax anyday.

Who were quoting climatologist and the National Hurricane Center which is clearly stated and I also linked to the State Climatologist from the State of Oregon. Would you like a link to the man who is considered the most expert in this area who also disagrees with the claim?

Now the seed post for this thread stated

“Increasingly it looks like a smoking gun. It’s a fair conclusion to draw that global warming, caused to a substantial extent by people, is driving increased sea surface temperatures and increasing the violence of hurricanes.”

That is a specious statement not supported by the data or the climatologist.

 

[wxcrazytwo]

Which go through cyclic temperature changes



Who were quoting climatologist and the National Hurricane Center which is clearly stated and I also linked to the State Climatologist from the State of Oregon. Would you like a link to the man who is considered the most expert in this area who also disagrees with the claim?

Now the seed post for this thread stated

“Increasingly it looks like a smoking gun. It’s a fair conclusion to draw that global warming, caused to a substantial extent by people, is driving increased sea surface temperatures and increasing the violence of hurricanes.”

That is a specious statement not supported by the data or the climatologist.

Umm, it takes more than warm water to create hurricanes. I think you need to brush up on your met skills.

 

[MrFungus420]

“Increasingly it looks like a smoking gun. It’s a fair conclusion to draw that global warming, caused to a substantial extent by people, is driving increased sea surface temperatures and increasing the violence of hurricanes.”

http://www.gnn.tv/headlines/5057/This_is_Global_Warming_Says_Environmental_Chief



new chapter in our modern life?

The problme with the premise being the statement "caused to a substantial extent by people". That is where is he making an unsubstantiated claim. A claim that shows his bias.

Yes, there is global warming. There is also a good chance that it is part of the global climate cycle.

 

[Stinger]

Umm, it takes more than warm water to create hurricanes. I think you need to brush up on your met skills.

Well since I agree why do I have to brush up on my "met skills"? It's not my contention that so-called global warming is causing any increase in hurricane activity or intensity.

 

[wxcrazytwo]

Well since I agree why do I have to brush up on my "met skills"? It's not my contention that so-called global warming is causing any increase in hurricane activity or intensity.

No, but your saying warm waters create the canes. It is just more than more waters...

 

[ALiberalModerate]

The problme with the premise being the statement "caused to a substantial extent by people". That is where is he making an unsubstantiated claim. A claim that shows his bias.

Yes, there is global warming. There is also a good chance that it is part of the global climate cycle.

Actually, it is the scientific concensus that human activities are to some extent a cause of Global Warming. The only real debate at this point is to what extent human activities are a cause.

 

[Stinger]

No, but your saying warm waters create the canes. It is just more than more waters...

Sorry but I didn't specifically say that. Warm waters fuel hurricanes that is true. But the question is is it global warming and is it man-made. And the answer is Nope and Nope.

 

[AlbqOwl]

Even a cursory review of Atlantic hurricane activity shows cycles of heavy activity and then little activity that have been occurring long before global warming was a concern of anybody. To wit:

Not Named - 160 mph Sep 13, 1928
Not Named - 160 mph Sep 5, 1932
Not Named - 160 mph Sep 3, 1935
Not Named - 160 mph Sep 19, 1938
Not Named - 160 mph Sep 16, 1947
Dog - 185 mph Sep 6, 1950
Easy - 160 mph Sep 7, 1951
Janet - 175 mph Sep 28, 1955
Cleo - 160 mph Aug 16, 1958
Donna - 160 mph Sep 4, 1960
Ethel - 160 mph Sep 15, 1960
Carla - 175 mph Sep 11, 1961
Hattie - 160 mph Oct 30, 1961
Beulah - 160 mph Sep 20, 1967
Camille - 190 mph Aug 17, 1969
Edith - 160 mph Sep 9, 1971
Anita - 175 mph Sep 2, 1977
David - 175 mph Aug 30, 1979
Allen - 190 mph Aug 7, 1980
Gilbert - 185 mph Sep 14, 1988
Hugo - 160 mph Sep 15, 1989
Andrew - 175 mph Aug 24, 1992
Mitch - 180 mph Oct 26, 1998
Isabel - 170 mph - 2003
Katrina - 2005
Rita - 2005

Cat 5 hurricanes seem to be fairly evenly dispersed over time and are rare. And of course this list does not show all the Cat 3 and 4 hurricanes that occurred or all the hurricanes that were entirely missed because they didn't wander into shipping lanes and they occurred before the days of doppler radar.

I think it is very difficult to make a case for global warming as the villain behind this year's hurricanes even though there have been an unusually high number of named storms this year.

 

[ALiberalModerate]

Sorry but I didn't specifically say that. Warm waters fuel hurricanes that is true. But the question is is it global warming and is it man-made. And the answer is Nope and Nope.

How can you make that statement? The vast majority of the scientific community is in agreement that global warming is a reality and that human activities is a factor. It is as well accepted as plate techtonics. The only real debate at this point is to what degree human activity is a factor.

Now, whether or not the current rise in hurricanes can be attributed to global warming, just a natural cycle, or a combination of the two, is very debatable. You cannot say either way.

 

[wxcrazytwo]

How can you make that statement? The vast majority of the scientific community is in agreement that global warming is a reality and that human activities is a factor. It is as well accepted as plate techtonics. The only real debate at this point is to what degree human activity is a factor.

Now, whether or not the current rise in hurricanes can be attributed to global warming, just a natural cycle, or a combination of the two, is very debatable. You cannot say either way.

Wait a minute it is not global warming. It just dawned on me it is Planet "X" that is creating this unseen havoc...lol

 

[Stinger]

I think you make a very good point, one that the hurricane experts agree with.

 

[kmhowe72]

I don't weather it is globel warming or not . But I can say this. If it is global warming then we have better change our ways and soon. or our children and grandchildren will be reaping it for genersations. And if a just cycle as they were saying. Then I guess people should think about living somewhere else. Or we have to get better levees in place.:smile:

 

[Stinger]

How can you make that statement? The vast majority of the scientific community is in agreement that global warming is a reality and that human activities is a factor. It is as well accepted as plate techtonics. The only real debate at this point is to what degree human activity is a factor.

Sorry but that is not true, the evidence that we are on a long term irreversable global warming trend is certainly not there. Nor is there evidence that a slight increase in global temperatures is necessarily bad. Global temperatures rise and fall over long periods of time. There simply is no evidence to support the claims that time are any different now.

Now, whether or not the current rise in hurricanes can be attributed to global warming, just a natural cycle, or a combination of the two, is very debatable. You cannot say either way.

Well since there is no evidence to indicate that it is, then we can at least lean towards it isn't.

 

[ALiberalModerate]

Sorry but that is not true, the evidence that we are on a long term irreversable global warming trend is certainly not there. Nor is there evidence that a slight increase in global temperatures is necessarily bad. Global temperatures rise and fall over long periods of time. There simply is no evidence to support the claims that time are any different now.



Well since there is no evidence to indicate that it is, then we can at least lean towards it isn't.

So, you know more and have thought of things that over 2000 scientists from 100 different nations have not thought of?

Of course the global climate changes and has changed in the past. Those changes are well understood in the scientific community. The problem is that natural occurances alone cannot explain the current warming pattern. Whether you like it or not, it is the scientific consensus that global warming is real and human activity is a factor to one degree or another. The only real debate is whether human activity is the primary factor, or a minor factor.

Are you saying that the vast majority of scientists are wrong? I'm sorry, but I will take the scientific concensus over the rants of right wing pundits, politicians, and the oil and coal industry any day. In fact, there are a lot of oil companies who believe that Global Warming is real and that humans are a factor.

 

[kmhowe72]

Max misfield of the hurricane center said that it was not connected . It's the EPA (they have some good points) that always makes everything about the Envirment;.

 

[Stinger]

So, you know more and have thought of things that over 2000 scientists from 100 different nations have not thought of?

Even USA Today, hardly a conservative anti-global warming news source, stated in it's lead editorial today that this association is pure spin.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/opinion/editorials/2005-09-25-our-view_x.htm

Global warming activists turn storms into spin

• Science doesn't support a link between global warming and recent hurricane activity, notes Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center. Katrina and Rita are part of a natural cycle. The increase in number and intensity of storms since 1995 is hardly unprecedented, says William Gray, a leading hurricane expert based at Colorado State University. He points out that two major hurricanes hit the Gulf Coast only six weeks apart in 1915, mimicking the doubly whammy of Katrina and Rita.

Whether you like it or not, it is the scientific consensus that global warming is real and human activity is a factor to one degree or another.

Whether you like it or not there is no consensus and no evidence to back up such a claim. Is the golbal temperature a tenth of a degee higher than it was 200 years ago. Some speculate that it is but since we had no way to accurately measure global temperatures until recently no one can really say for sure. Will the temperature continue to rise over the next few centuries, no one knows for sure. Mostly it seems it depends on what the sun does and no one can accurately predict what it will do.

Are you saying that the vast majority of scientists are wrong?

Depends of what scientist you are talking about, if you are talking about scientist who have no expertise in the field, yes. Because the majority of climatologist do not agree that there is an overall abnormal warming trend.

 

[ALiberalModerate]

Even USA Today, hardly a conservative anti-global warming news source, stated in it's lead editorial today that this association is pure spin.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/opinion/editorials/2005-09-25-our-view_x.htm

Global warming activists turn storms into spin

• Science doesn't support a link between global warming and recent hurricane activity, notes Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center. Katrina and Rita are part of a natural cycle. The increase in number and intensity of storms since 1995 is hardly unprecedented, says William Gray, a leading hurricane expert based at Colorado State University. He points out that two major hurricanes hit the Gulf Coast only six weeks apart in 1915, mimicking the doubly whammy of Katrina and Rita.



Whether you like it or not there is no consensus and no evidence to back up such a claim. Is the golbal temperature a tenth of a degee higher than it was 200 years ago. Some speculate that it is but since we had no way to accurately measure global temperatures until recently no one can really say for sure. Will the temperature continue to rise over the next few centuries, no one knows for sure. Mostly it seems it depends on what the sun does and no one can accurately predict what it will do.




Depends of what scientist you are talking about, if you are talking about scientist who have no expertise in the field, yes. Because the majority of climatologist do not agree that there is an overall abnormal warming trend.

Actually, they do. See thats the thing, if you find one that doesnt, its a minority view.

I would suggest that you check out the

[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change which represents over 100 countries and 2000 scientists.[/FONT]

http://www.ipcc.ch/

Or how about the EPA's site on climate change.

Don't just take my word for it:

IPCC

Main article: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

The IPCC said in its Second Assessment Report (SAR) in 1995 that the balance of evidence suggests that there is a discernible human influence on global climate" and strengthened this in its Third Assessment Report (TAR) in 2001 to "There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities". Note that "balance of evidence" is not intended to suggest unambiguous proof; it is a reference to the standards of proof required in English civil law (balance of evidence) as opposed to criminal law (beyond reasonable doubt).

In the 2001 TAR the IPCC said:

In the light of new evidence and taking into account the remaining uncertainties, most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations [1].

[edit]

Joint science academies’ statement

In 2005 the national science academies of the G8 nations and Brazil, China and India, three of the largest emitters of greenhouse gases in the developing world, signed a statement on the global response to climate change. The statement stresses that the scientific understanding of climate change is now sufficiently clear to justify nations taking prompt action [2], and explicitly endorsed the IPCC consensus.
[edit]

US National Research Council, 2001

In 2001 the Committee on the Science of Climate Change of the National Research Council published Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions [3]. This report explicitly endorses the IPCC view of attribution of recent climate change as representing the view of the science community:

The IPCC's conclusion that most of the observed warming of the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations accurately reflects the current thinking of the scientific community on this issue. [4]

The summary begins with:

Greenhouse gases are accumulating in Earth's atmosphere as a result of human activities, causing surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures to rise. Temperatures are, in fact, rising. The changes observed over the last several decades are likely mostly due to human activities, but we cannot rule out that some significant part of these changes is also a reflection of natural variability. Human-induced warming and associated sea level rises are expected to continue through the 21st century. (ibid.)

[edit]

American Meteorological Society

The American Meteorological Society (AMS) statement adopted by their council in 2003 said:

There is now clear evidence that the mean annual temperature at the Earth's surface, averaged over the entire globe, has been increasing in the past 200 years. There is also clear evidence that the abundance of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has increased over the same period. In the past decade, significant progress has been made toward a better understanding of the climate system and toward improved projections of long-term climate change... The report by the IPCC stated that the global mean temperature is projected to increase by 1.4°C-5.8°C in the next 100 years... Human activities have become a major source of environmental change. Of great urgency are the climate consequences of the increasing atmospheric abundance of greenhouse gases... Because greenhouse gases continue to increase, we are, in effect, conducting a global climate experiment, neither planned nor controlled, the results of which may present unprecedented challenges to our wisdom and foresight as well as have significant impacts on our natural and societal systems. It is a long-term problem that requires a long-term perspective. Important decisions confront current and future national and world leaders. [5]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_opinion_on_climate_change

Like I said earlier, there is no proof one way or the other on Global Warming causing the severe hurricanes we are now getting. But, Global Warming itself is the scientific concensus.