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Global heating pushes tropical regions towards limits of human livability

Bergslagstroll

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Climate change risk leading to unbearable temperatures in tropical regions.

"The climate crisis is pushing the planet’s tropical regions towards the limits of human livability, with rising heat and humidity threatening to plunge much of the world’s population into potentially lethal conditions, new research has found.

Should governments fail to curb global heating to 1.5C above the pre-industrial era, areas in the tropical band that stretches either side of the equator risk changing into a new environment that will hit “the limit of human adaptation”, the study warns...

Dangerous conditions in the tropics will unfold even before the 1.5C threshold, however, with the paper warning that 1C of extreme wet-bulb temperature increase “could have adverse health impact equivalent to that of several degrees of temperature increase”. The world has already warmed by around 1.1C on average due to human activity and although governments vowed in the Paris climate agreement to hold temperatures to 1.5C, scientists have warned this limit could be breached within a decade."



There you could also have extreme increase in temperature in Arctic.

 
Climate change risk leading to unbearable temperatures in tropical regions.

"The climate crisis is pushing the planet’s tropical regions towards the limits of human livability, with rising heat and humidity threatening to plunge much of the world’s population into potentially lethal conditions, new research has found.

Should governments fail to curb global heating to 1.5C above the pre-industrial era, areas in the tropical band that stretches either side of the equator risk changing into a new environment that will hit “the limit of human adaptation”, the study warns...

Dangerous conditions in the tropics will unfold even before the 1.5C threshold, however, with the paper warning that 1C of extreme wet-bulb temperature increase “could have adverse health impact equivalent to that of several degrees of temperature increase”. The world has already warmed by around 1.1C on average due to human activity and although governments vowed in the Paris climate agreement to hold temperatures to 1.5C, scientists have warned this limit could be breached within a decade."



There you could also have extreme increase in temperature in Arctic.

Sure looks like a rehash of the alarmist statements from last year.
Here is what the paper cited in the article says.
Projections of tropical heat stress constrained by atmospheric dynamics
"These results suggest that limiting global warming to 1.5 °C will prevent most of the tropics from reaching a TW of 35 °C, the limit of human adaptation."
Now, 35C is 95 F, and many people already live in places that often exceed 35C, myself included.
But let's look at what they are actually saying.
" For each 1 °C of tropical mean warming, global climate models project extreme TW (the annual maximum of daily mean or 3-hourly values) to increase roughly uniformly between 20° S and 20° N latitude by about 1 °C. "
This actually does not make sense, because while the average temperature has been increasing,
most of that increase has been in daily lows not going as low, not daily highs increasing,
so it it improper to assume that 100% of the increase would be in the daily maximum temperatures.
 
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What a silly thread. I live in the tropics, and the weather has actually gotten colder and very comfortable.
 
I've experienced heat stroke at 95F with 75% humidity for a 130F "feels like" which is the beginning of the danger range for likelihood of heat stroke/heat exhaustion with prolonged exposure. I probably could have handled it if I were younger, but no longer will I go outside in temp/humid like that anymore. At least hell is a dry heat.
 
I've experienced heat stroke at 95F with 75% humidity for a 130F "feels like" which is the beginning of the danger range for likelihood of heat stroke/heat exhaustion with prolonged exposure. I probably could have handled it if I were younger, but no longer will I go outside in temp/humid like that anymore. At least hell is a dry heat.
I think that while that combination can happen, it is rare.
Usually in humid places, you start the day near 100% RH, and as it warms, the air can hold more mostiure, so the RH drops.
Here is an example, the city of Manaus, in Brazil, very close to the Equator, and nearly 1000 miles from the ocean.
weather underground Manaus.
On the hourly records for July 9 2020, we can see a 5am 100% RH and a temp of 73 F,
The high of the day was 90F but the RH was 62%.
I looked at other days and months, and that is kind of the norm all year round.
 
Climate change risk leading to unbearable temperatures in tropical regions.

"The climate crisis is pushing the planet’s tropical regions towards the limits of human livability, with rising heat and humidity threatening to plunge much of the world’s population into potentially lethal conditions, new research has found.

Should governments fail to curb global heating to 1.5C above the pre-industrial era, areas in the tropical band that stretches either side of the equator risk changing into a new environment that will hit “the limit of human adaptation”, the study warns...

Dangerous conditions in the tropics will unfold even before the 1.5C threshold, however, with the paper warning that 1C of extreme wet-bulb temperature increase “could have adverse health impact equivalent to that of several degrees of temperature increase”. The world has already warmed by around 1.1C on average due to human activity and although governments vowed in the Paris climate agreement to hold temperatures to 1.5C, scientists have warned this limit could be breached within a decade."



There you could also have extreme increase in temperature in Arctic.

The IPCC tells us that the warming will be at night, in the winter, and in the higher latitudes. That’s not a recipe for what your link claims.
 
What a silly thread. I live in the tropics, and the weather has actually gotten colder and very comfortable.

Do you live in ALL the tropics? Or do you live in one location?

I ask because "anecdotal data" is exactly meaningless in this conversation.
 
The IPCC tells us that the warming will be at night, in the winter, and in the higher latitudes. That’s not a recipe for what your link claims.

You do realize that AGW is global in extent, right? It's the GLOBAL average temperature anomaly. Yeah certain locations will warm faster than others (and some, gasp! might even show cooling! But the overall average increases.
 
I think that while that combination can happen, it is rare.
Usually in humid places, you start the day near 100% RH, and as it warms, the air can hold more mostiure, so the RH drops.
Here is an example, the city of Manaus, in Brazil, very close to the Equator, and nearly 1000 miles from the ocean.
weather underground Manaus.
On the hourly records for July 9 2020, we can see a 5am 100% RH and a temp of 73 F,
The high of the day was 90F but the RH was 62%.
I looked at other days and months, and that is kind of the norm all year round.


For my area, the temp wasn't unusual. The RH is normally half what it was for that mid-day time.
 
For my area, the temp wasn't unusual. The RH is normally half what it was for that mid-day time.
We get it here in Houston sometime, it usually happens right after a short rain on a very hot day,
but is a temporary, short lived condition.
 
You do realize that AGW is global in extent, right? It's the GLOBAL average temperature anomaly. Yeah certain locations will warm faster than others (and some, gasp! might even show cooling! But the overall average increases.


The avg global increase may not look so big a deal. However, the extreme regional and local variance is where the worst effect will be. Incl cooling extremes as higher pressure warming causes low pressure cooling to be trapped in smaller areas that such compact decrease the temp more than usual. One may not think of "warming" or "drying" causing more rainfall, but it is causing more extreme rainfall and thus flooding but maybe less so in some areas.
 
Yes, I'm sure that anecdotes are the key.
Do you live in ALL the tropics? Or do you live in one location?

I ask because "anecdotal data" is exactly meaningless in this conversation.
Where's your data then? Show me proof that people in the tropics are on fire due to climate change.
 
Where's your data then? Show me proof that people in the tropics are on fire due to climate change.

“On the hottest days, Leitu Frank feels like she can’t breathe any more. The housewife and mother of five decamps from her airless concrete home to catch the breeze in a simple wooden shack by the water’s edge. She folds washing and stares out at the unsettled turquoise sea, its moods and rhythms increasingly unpredictable, as its rising proximity threatens to strangle her family.

“The sea is eating all the sand,” says Frank, 32, dressed in a pink stretchy T-shirt and faded sarong.

“Before, the sand used to stretch out far, and when we swam we could see the sea floor, and the coral. Now, it is cloudy all the time, and the coral is dead. Tuvalu is sinking.”

“Tuvalu is sinking” is the local catch-all phrase for the effects of climate change on this tiny island archipelago on the frontline of global warming. A Polynesian country situated in Oceania, Tuvalu is no more than a speck in the Pacific ocean, midway between Hawaii and Australia.

The fourth smallest nation in the world, Tuvalu is home to just 11,000 people, most of whom live on the largest island of Fongafale, where they are packed in and fighting for space. Tuvalu’s total land area accounts for less than 26 sq km.

Already, two of Tuvalu’s nine islands are on the verge of going under, the government says, swallowed by sea-rise and coastal erosion. Most of the islands sit barely three metres above sea level, and at its narrowest point, Fongafale stretches just 20m across.”

 
You do realize that AGW is global in extent, right? It's the GLOBAL average temperature anomaly. Yeah certain locations will warm faster than others (and some, gasp! might even show cooling! But the overall average increases.
Dixie Lee Ray famously said, beware of averages, after all, the average person has one breast and one testicle.

Besides that personal observation says that winter nights are indeed warmer and summer afternoons haven’t warmed up. In my neck of the woods they’re cooler as is much of the Eastern United States. It always seems to be somewhere else, just under the surface, or just around the corner .
 
Dixie Lee Ray famously said, beware of averages, after all, the average person has one breast and one testicle.

Besides that personal observation says that winter nights are indeed warmer and summer afternoons haven’t warmed up. In my neck of the woods they’re cooler as is much of the Eastern United States. It always seems to be somewhere else, just under the surface, or just around the corner .

“My personal observation”. *L* Why on Earth do we need scientists when we already have personal observations?
 
Dixie Lee Ray famously said, beware of averages, after all, the average person has one breast and one testicle.

Besides that personal observation says that winter nights are indeed warmer and summer afternoons haven’t warmed up. In my neck of the woods they’re cooler as is much of the Eastern United States. It always seems to be somewhere else, just under the surface, or just around the corner .
If you're of average intelligence exactly half the people are dumber than you.
It's (climate change) is affecting lives already. It happens faster at high latitudes. But not many people live in the Arctic so it can be safely ignored. For now. When it does start affecting Wisconsin it will probably be like a snowball rolling downhill.
 
If you're of average intelligence exactly half the people are dumber than you.
It's (climate change) is affecting lives already. It happens faster at high latitudes. But not many people live in the Arctic so it can be safely ignored. For now. When it does start affecting Wisconsin it will probably be like a snowball rolling downhill.
Except that at a constant emission level, the warming per year would actually decrease.
We are only slowing down a little on emissions, but we are not speeding up.
Globally CO2 emissions levels have been fairly steady for about 2 decades, between 2 and 3 ppm per year.
 
Dixie Lee Ray famously said, beware of averages, after all, the average person has one breast and one testicle.

I couldn’t care less about how little you understand about statistics in science
 
If you're of average intelligence exactly half the people are dumber than you.
It's (climate change) is affecting lives already. It happens faster at high latitudes. But not many people live in the Arctic so it can be safely ignored. For now. When it does start affecting Wisconsin it will probably be like a snowball rolling downhill.
You guys have been at this for nearly forty years.
When is it going to begin to happen. The polar
bears are doing well, the hurricanes aren’t stronger
or more numerous, there’s more precipitation, not less,
extreme tornadoes have declined in frequency, there
are fewer forest fires than there were 80 years ago,
sea level continues to rise at about the same rate as it
did in the 19th century. So when? When is this catastrophe
going to begin to happen?
 
You guys have been at this for nearly forty years.
When is it going to begin to happen. The polar
bears are doing well, the hurricanes aren’t stronger
or more numerous, there’s more precipitation, not less,
extreme tornadoes have declined in frequency, there
are fewer forest fires than there were 80 years ago,
sea level continues to rise at about the same rate as it
did in the 19th century. So when? When is this catastrophe
going to begin to happen?

None of that is true, of course.
 
You also forgot to add the multiple economic and environmental downsides of increased manmade global warming.
The economic downside is from your side of the political spectrum that wants use CO2 as an excuse to destroy capitalism and install “The Great Reset”

You’re going to have to tell me what the environmental down side is to a warmer world with more precipitation and greening from increased CO2.
 
The economic downside is from your side of the political spectrum that wants use CO2 as an excuse to destroy capitalism and install “The Great Reset”

You’re going to have to tell me what the environmental down side is to a warmer world with more precipitation and greening from increased CO2.

Sentence #1: Conspiracy theory.
Sentence #2: Do some research. It's certainly not as simplistic as "greener world". But simplistic statements are what I always expect from the right winger deniers.
 
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