Global Cooling

[sawdust]

I've said it before. I believe in global warming. I believe in global cooling. I don't believe the climate will ever be the same all the time. AGW is an interesting theory, but is not settled science.

In the 70's Nigel Calder wrote a book about the coming ice age. Now he's a proponent of AGW. I find that somewhat fickle but I digress. Now comes this article about the possibility that we are on the verge of another little ice age because of a solar minimum, or lack of sun spot activity. Just like fashion, this stuff seems to go in cycles.

Do we face a disastrous century due to global cooling? | WashingtonExaminer.com

The result of the “Maunder Minimum” of sunspots was a so-called Little Ice Age, with significantly colder temperatures in the temperate zones, low crop yields to the point of famine and, Parker writes, “a greater frequency of severe weather events—such as flash floods, freak storms, prolonged drought and abnormal (as well as abnormally long) cold spells.”

 

[WCH]

I think what's settled is that the climate changes.

 

[joG]

I've said it before. I believe in global warming. I believe in global cooling. I don't believe the climate will ever be the same all the time. AGW is an interesting theory, but is not settled science.

In the 70's Nigel Calder wrote a book about the coming ice age. Now he's a proponent of AGW. I find that somewhat fickle but I digress. Now comes this article about the possibility that we are on the verge of another little ice age because of a solar minimum, or lack of sun spot activity. Just like fashion, this stuff seems to go in cycles.

Do we face a disastrous century due to global cooling? | WashingtonExaminer.com

There's a lot of noise out there.

 

[sawdust]

There's a lot of noise out there.

True that.

 

[notquiteright]

Well it is easy to shrug off theories as not a settled science but then again what holds you to this planet is 'just a' theory as well.

Back in the 70's, before detailed study of gases in our atmosphere, the theory ran the Earth's core was cooling thus the planet is set on a slow cooling trend. Now as our use of certain volatile compounds literally skyrocketed the equation changed.

What we could compute and measure has changed radically since the 70's.

Once scientists thought spontaneous generation created vermin from rubbish. It would be foolish to throw out all the scientific advances since because of that.

 

[Earthling]

Having dropped Mann's Hokey Schstick graph from AR5, it appears the IPCC is preparing for a possible cool down.

 

[Heebie Jeebie]

I've said it before. I believe in global warming. I believe in global cooling.

And I believe it will be colder than a witches you know what this week!

When the climate isn't changing then we have big problems.

 

[WCH]

Having dropped Mann's Hokey Schstick graph from AR5, it appears the IPCC is preparing for a possible cool down.

If it's anything like an approaching cold front, it's always warmer than average before it hits.

 

[flogger]

The big difference this time is the huge political manipulation of what is almost certainly a natural phenomenon. Theres now billions riding on this with everyone from the bona fide tree huggers to the communists and everything in between milking it for everything its worth. Certain governments see it as an easy tax raising cash cow feeding off years of media indoctrinated green guilt. The scientific community would appear to be more than happy to be generously be paid ad infinitum for not finding any definitive answers here too. How else could this still be manage to be in the public eye when it will soon be two decades since there has been any warming whatsoever !

If there is a global cooling scare now one of the downsides of our wondrous information technology today will be the rapid spreading of more bogus theories which will inevitably implicate humans .... again

 

[longview]

The big difference this time is the huge political manipulation of what is almost certainly a natural phenomenon. Theres now billions riding on this with everyone from the bona fide tree huggers to the communists and everything in between milking it for everything its worth. Certain governments see it as an easy tax raising cash cow feeding off years of media indoctrinated green guilt. The scientific community would appear to be more than happy to be generously be paid ad infinitum for not finding any definitive answers here too. How else could this still be manage to be in the public eye when it will soon be two decades since there has been any warming whatsoever !

If there is a global cooling scare now one of the downsides of our wondrous information technology today will be the rapid spreading of more bogus theories which will ineviably implicate humans .... again

If you look at the predictions from Scientist, many predict such a broad range that it will
almost be impossible to be wrong, like falling off the floor.
Example Baede et al 1.5 to 4.5 degrees C for a doubling of Co2.
Well it will take about 200 years to double Co2 starting from 1880,
a temperature increase of 1.5 degrees C is within the normal trend.
So short of something catastrophic happening we will get past the 1.5 degree mark.
The 4.5 degrees while unlikely, should scare people.
At this stage we look like we will see about 1.6 degrees C of warming, if and when we hit 560 ppm of Co2.

 

[flogger]

If you look at the predictions from Scientist, many predict such a broad range that it will
almost be impossible to be wrong, like falling off the floor.
Example Baede et al 1.5 to 4.5 degrees C for a doubling of Co2.
Well it will take about 200 years to double Co2 starting from 1880,
a temperature increase of 1.5 degrees C is within the normal trend.
So short of something catastrophic happening we will get past the 1.5 degree mark.
The 4.5 degrees while unlikely, should scare people.
At this stage we look like we will see about 1.6 degrees C of warming, if and when we hit 560 ppm of Co2.

Frankly looking at direct observations right now even that 1.5C mark looks highly improbable. I think the Sun going 'quiet' of late may well be the major determinant of our temperatures in the medium term. This tends to point to a potential downward trend rather than any increase. The current temperature flatline would seem to bear this out. There is plenty of observational evidence planet wide that would tend to support that contention too as this huge resource illustrates.

Is there global cooling? The answer might not be what you expected. - Home

 

[longview]

Frankly looking at direct observations right now even that 1.5C mark looks highly improbable. I think the Sun going 'quiet' of late may well be the major determinant of our temperatures in the medium term. This tends to point to a potential downward trend rather than any increase. The current temperature flatline would seem to bear this out. There is plenty of observational evidence planet wide that would tend to support that contention too as this huge resource illustrates.

Is there global cooling? The answer might not be what you expected. - Home

I for one hope we see some warming.
The consequences for humanity of another ice age would truly be catastrophic,
and not the fake kind the AGW types talk about.

 

[flogger]

I for one hope we see some warming.
The consequences for humanity of another ice age would truly be catastrophic,
and not the fake kind the AGW types talk about.

Agreed ! Given we have currently stopped warming for 17 years and counting what problem is it the alarmists still want us to address anyway ? I wonder what this 'correct' global temperature is supposed to be and why is todays necessarily the wrong one ? This whole increasingly expensive agenda now seems to be the very definition of the term 'smoke and mirrors'

 

[Earthling]

If it's anything like an approaching cold front, it's always warmer than average before it hits.

I sincerely hope so, it wouldn't be nice to live out the rest of my life in the cold.

 

[WCH]

I sincerely hope so, it wouldn't be nice to live out the rest of my life in the cold.

If it's no bigger a deal than 'global warming' has been, I wouldn't sweat it.

Living in Texas, we could stand to lose a few degrees an barely notice.

 

[Threegoofs]

But I thought no one was disputing that AGW was real? Thats what our stable of deniers say.

I guess I'll wait for the usual deniers to start hammering the OP.

Odd how silent they all are on threads like this.

 

[Earthling]

If it's no bigger a deal than 'global warming' has been, I wouldn't sweat it.

Living in Texas, we could stand to lose a few degrees an barely notice.

Last time I drove across the Panhandle was Nov 1980, and the I-40 was an ice sheet approaching and past Amarillo.

 

[Earthling]

Odd how silent they all are on threads like this.

I haven't heard much from you about where Mann's Hokey Schstick is in the AR5, haven't you found it yet?

 

[Muhammed]

All of the reputable science indicates that the Earth has been cooling.


The GWC is just a bunch of idiots, crooks and brainwashed fools.

 

[VanceMack]

But I thought no one was disputing that AGW was real? Thats what our stable of deniers say.

I guess I'll wait for the usual deniers to start hammering the OP.

Odd how silent they all are on threads like this.

AGW theory implies both that there is Global Warming AND that man has caused it. By and large it is a term that has been abandoned for the safer term "climate Change"...an undeniable reality and something that has ALWAYS occurred since as long as there has been a 'climate'.

And did you REALLY say you didnt have to understand the posts, articles, and graphs you were presenting here as arguments on this topic...you just had to repeat what the 'scientists' have said?

 

[Tim the plumber]

But I thought no one was disputing that AGW was real? Thats what our stable of deniers say.

I guess I'll wait for the usual deniers to start hammering the OP.

Odd how silent they all are on threads like this.

I think it's that no one disputes that the world has warmed up a bit. That it's man made is disputed (not by me, absorption spectrums are beyond me).

What are we supposed to be upset about in the OP?

 

[Threegoofs]

I haven't heard much from you about where Mann's Hokey Schstick is in the AR5, haven't you found it yet?

I posted it a while ago. Page 5-117.

Funny how interested you are in this but you just can't muster the effort to look it up.

 

[Threegoofs]

AGW theory implies both that there is Global Warming AND that man has caused it. By and large it is a term that has been abandoned for the safer term "climate Change"...an undeniable reality and something that has ALWAYS occurred since as long as there has been a 'climate'.

And did you REALLY say you didnt have to understand the posts, articles, and graphs you were presenting here as arguments on this topic...you just had to repeat what the 'scientists' have said?

The term hasn't been 'abandoned'. It's used quite often in the scientific literature.

No- I never said one mindlessly parrots what scientists have said. I've never presented anything I don't understand here. But there are certainly very complex parts of the science, and pretending that one can figure them out and dismissing the years of study and bring close to the data is disingenuous.

 

[Threegoofs]

I think it's that no one disputes that the world has warmed up a bit. That it's man made is disputed (not by me, absorption spectrums are beyond me).

What are we supposed to be upset about in the OP?

See post #19.

 

[Heebie Jeebie]

I think it's that no one disputes that the world has warmed up a bit. That it's man made is disputed (not by me, absorption spectrums are beyond me).

What are we supposed to be upset about in the OP?

I like John Stossel.

"Let's chill out about global warming

...

4. If the globe is warming, can America do anything about it?
No. What we do now is pointless. I feel righteous riding my bike to work. That's just shallow. Even if all Americans replaced cars with bicycles, switched to fluorescent light bulbs, got solar water heaters, etc., it would have no discernible effect on the climate. China builds a new coal-fueled power plant almost every week; each one obliterates any carbon reduction from all our windmills and solar panels.

Weirdly, the only thing that's reduced America's carbon output has been our increased use of natural gas (it releases less greenhouse gas than oil and coal). But many environmentalists fight the fracking that produces it.

Someday, we'll probably invent technology that could reduce man's greenhouse gas creation, but we're nowhere close to it now. Rather than punish poor people with higher taxes on carbon and award ludicrous subsidies to Al Gore's "green" investments, we should wait for the science to advance.

If serious warming happens, we can adjust, as we've adjusted to big changes throughout history.

It will be easier to adjust if America is not broke after wasting our resources on trendy gimmicks like windmills"

Let's chill out about global warming | Fox News