Germany officially elected Queen Angela I in a landslide-- FDP and anti-Euros out

[German guy]

... the election in Germany has one big winner:



Angela Merkel and her center-right Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) became clearly strongest party with 41.5% of the votes, more than 15% of the votes ahead of their challenger, Peer Steinbrück's center-left Social Democrats (SPD) at 25.7%!

So the new Chancellor will be the old Chancellor: Merkel is as successful and powerful as never before and will continue for a 3rd term.


But maybe Merkel was *too* successful: Her CDU/CSU cannibalized their junior partner of the past four years, the moderately libertarian Free Democrats (FDP). That party was shattered and destroyed, fell from strong 14.6% in 2009 to weak 4.8% of the votes now -- and is kicked out of the federal parliament for the first time ever since 1949! (A party needs at least 5.0% of the votes to be represented.) Merkel's CDU/CSU sucked up more than 2 million voters from the FDP.

So Merkel will have to find a new junior partner -- her CDU/CSU is missing just three seats in the government to be able to govern all alone (which is totally incredible all in itself: The last time, a party won a majority on its own and didn't need a junior partner, was in 1957 with Konrad Adenauer!).

Ironically, this success is bitter for Merkel after all: There are no center-right coalition partners available, but Merkel will have to rely on a left-of-center party for a coalition: Either the center-left SPD (like in her first term 2005-09), or on the progressive-environmentalist Green Party.


Another remarkable outcome is the fact that a newcoming party, the conservative anti-euro currency party "Alternative for Germany" (AfD), which had just been founded in April, immediately reached 4.7% and only narrowly missed entering the parliament.


Here the official result:

Party (leaning): votes in % / gains and losses compared to 2009 / seats:

Christian Democrats CDU/CSU (center-right): 41.5% / + 7.7% / 311
Social Democrats SPD (center-left): 25.7% / +2.7% / 192
Left Party (socialist): 8.6% / -3.3% / 64
Green Party (progressive-environmentalist): 8.4% / -2.3% / 63

Below 5% and thus no seats in the parliament:

Free Democrats FDP (moderately libertarian): 4.8% / -9.8% / 0
Alternative for Germany AfD (anti-euro currency and bailouts): 4.7% / +4.7% / 0
Pirate Party (internet freedom and transparency): 2.2% / +0.2% / 0
National Democrats NPD (neo-Nazis): 1.5% / +-0.0% / 0
Free Voters (centrist): 1.0% / ? / 0

all others below 1.0%.


That's (approx.) what the new parliament will look like:



As you can see, Merkel's CDU/CSU *almost* has a majority on their own.


What happens now? The next days, Merkel will probably start talks with the SPD and Greens to find a new junior partner. That will not be easy for her: The Greens are very unlikely to join Merkel, because the differences and animosities between both parties are just too big. But also the SPD is reluctant to join another "grand coalition" under Merkel, because last time they did that 2005-09, it caused them to lose more than 10% of the votes in the following election.

But in the end, the SPD will probably agree to support Merkel to give her a majority. But they'll probably be a tough negotiation partner and get through many of their policies against Merkel.

In theory, the SPD could kick out Merkel and form a coalition with Greens and socialist Left Party -- the three parties have a majority of three or four seats, but the SPD has clearly promised not to cooperate with the Left Party before the election. They couldn't break this promise without the risk of being destroyed in later elections, so this is no real option.

 

[German guy]

Oh yes, here a few sources:

International - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News

 

[RabidAlpaca]

I'm getting really tired of this bitch. And my two favorite parties get das Boot. Not a good day for freedom in Germany.

 

[DDD]

I think Angie is great!

 

[Canell]

How about Christian Democrats (Merkel) + Left Party (socialists)?

 

[German guy]

How about Christian Democrats (Merkel) + Left Party (socialists)?

Won't happen. The Left Party explicitly said before the election (and now repeated again) that they will under no circumstances vote for Merkel in the parliament.

And for the center-right CDU/CSU too, the socialist Left Party, with its GDR past, is the primary hate object.

 

[German guy]

I'm getting really tired of this bitch. And my two favorite parties get das Boot. Not a good day for freedom in Germany.

Well, we'll see if the AfD will manage to establish itself in the next few years, despite not entering the federal parliament. After all, their 4.7% (from zero a few months ago) are a considerable success already. And in a few months, there are elections for the EU parliament ...

 

[Canell]

Whoever invented this 5% barrier is a MF. I don't think it's democratic at all. Why shouldn't minorities have a say, hm?

 

[cpwill]

I'll admit to not being good on German internals. How do the relative options for Merkel effect her ability to hold the line on continued bail-outs for Greece et. al.?

 

[German guy]

Whoever invented this 5% barrier is a MF. I don't think it's democratic at all. Why shouldn't minorities have a say, hm?

Asfaik, that was an invention of the creators of the 1949 Constitution, and, as many elements of that Constitution, were a lesson drawn from the failure of the Weimar Republic. In Weimar, there was no such hurdle, so the parliament was extremely split among many small and tiny parties, and finding coalitions was extremely difficult. That hurdle is supposed to make sure there are more or less stable blocks that allow for stable coalitions.

 

[German guy]

I'll admit to not being good on German internals. How do the relative options for Merkel effect her ability to hold the line on continued bail-outs for Greece et. al.?

Both potential new partners for Merkel, SPD and Greens, have supported her course in the past four years. They even voted for her plans most of the time in the parliament.

The SPD rhetorically demanded some more focus on the social situation in Greece and other crisis states, stating just demanding reforms is not enough, but it shall be made sure that unemployment and social situation for the common people doesn't become too bad.

So maybe, the SPD will ask for certain moderate/token anti-unemployment programs in Greece et al, but on the bottom line, they will support Merkel on her euro policies.

 

[Canell]

Asfaik, that was an invention of the creators of the 1949 Constitution, and, as many elements of that Constitution, were a lesson drawn from the failure of the Weimar Republic. In Weimar, there was no such hurdle, so the parliament was extremely split among many small and tiny parties, and finding coalitions was extremely difficult. That hurdle is supposed to make sure there are more or less stable blocks that allow for stable coalitions.

Even so, I don't think it's right. Look at the mess now. Should this rule not exist, the FDP, the anti-euro party and others would have a say in Germany's affairs. And Mrs. Merkel wouldn't scratch her head finding a coalition.
It's the same in my country too - 5% barrier for entering Parliament. Last elections my vote was dumped because the party didn't pass 5% and I felt screwed. It's just stupid.

 

[Artevelde]

Clearly a big victory for Merkel.

Also interesting to see both the Greens and Die Linke lose. And significant that the SPD had a very poor result and didn't manage to pick up even half the votes that the other left-wing parties lost.

 

[Artevelde]

Even so, I don't think it's right. Look at the mess now. Should this rule not exist, the FDP, the anti-euro party and others would have a say in Germany's affairs. And Mrs. Merkel wouldn't scratch her head finding a coalition.
It's the same in my country too - 5% barrier for entering Parliament. Last elections my vote was dumped because the party didn't pass 5% and I felt screwed. It's just stupid.

Actually, a coalition might be even more difficult to form in such a scenario, since it is likely CDU/CSU and FDP might fall just short of a majority if all seats were distributed strictly proportionately without a 5% hurdle.

 

[Rainman05]

Even so, I don't think it's right. Look at the mess now. Should this rule not exist, the FDP, the anti-euro party and others would have a say in Germany's affairs. And Mrs. Merkel wouldn't scratch her head finding a coalition.
It's the same in my country too - 5% barrier for entering Parliament. Last elections my vote was dumped because the party didn't pass 5% and I felt screwed. It's just stupid.

The reason you need to have a barrier is that while multi-party system is good, you can't afford to have dozens small parties in the parliament, especially if you are a parliamentary republic. It would drag negotiations on and on and no clear success... a lot of bureaucracy and politics, little work done for the benefit of the people.

So have a breaking point.

In my country there is the 5% rule for the same reason, and it's a good reason as I said.
But there are ways around if. If you form a coalition with another smaller party, you need 6% of the vote. So say you are 2 small parties who can't get 5% but 3% each... form a coalition and you get the needed 6% and you're in. And as a coalition with 6% you can actually matter... whether if there was no entry barrier, you could technically fill the parliament with 100 small parties of 1% of the vote each and then what? Game of thrones on the taxpayers' dime.

 

[German guy]

Actually, a coalition might be even more difficult to form in such a scenario, since it is likely CDU/CSU and FDP might fall just short of a majority if all seats were distributed strictly proportionately without a 5% hurdle.

Yes. It would make constant "grand coalitions" even more probable. And while I think that coalition is fine now and then, it's not good as a default option, IMO.

 

[gunner]

Even so, I don't think it's right. Look at the mess now. Should this rule not exist, the FDP, the anti-euro party and others would have a say in Germany's affairs. And Mrs. Merkel wouldn't scratch her head finding a coalition.
It's the same in my country too - 5% barrier for entering Parliament. Last elections my vote was dumped because the party didn't pass 5% and I felt screwed. It's just stupid.

I think it's a sensible line, as Germanguy suggests less than the 5% would make it very hard to form a stable government. And lets be honest, you could envisage all kind of 'crack pots' getting their say otherwise...

Paul

 

[German guy]

Clearly a big victory for Merkel.

Also interesting to see both the Greens and Die Linke lose. And significant that the SPD had a very poor result and didn't manage to pick up even half the votes that the other left-wing parties lost.

Yes. The left clearly failed reaching its goals.

On the other side, the CDU/CSU also failed to suck up all of the FDP voters (FDP lost 9.8%, CDU/CSU gained 7.7%).

And of the 4.7% for the AfD, polls showed that by far most of their voters came from the FDP and a considerable number from the socialist Left Party. 40% of the AfD voters said they voted for the party "out of conviction", but 60% said "because of disagreement with the other parties". So the AfD managed to win many protest voters, not few of which who have previously voted for the Left Party.

 

[jschie]

Pirate Party (internet freedom and transparency, social-libertarian): 2.2% / +0.2% / 0

The Pirate Party of Germany has completed their manifestos.
Internet freedom and transparency are now a result of their social-libertarian manifestos.

This costed them many votes at that election, but will strenght them at next elections.

 

[Canell]

So have a breaking point.

Yeah, tell that to the 2,082,305 Germans who voted FDP or the 2,052,372 Germans who voted the Anti-euro party, or 958,507 Germans who voted the Pirate party... :roll:

You leave them with a thumb in their mouth. :thumbdown

P.S. What we have is in fact the big parties "stealing" votes/seats from the small parties (those who failed to pass 5% barrier). Very democratic indeed.

 

[Canell]

And lets be honest, you could envisage all kind of 'crack pots' getting their say otherwise..

That's the idea of "democracy", isn't it?

 

[Rainman05]

Yes. The left clearly failed reaching its goals.

On the other side, the CDU/CSU also failed to suck up all of the FDP voters (FDP lost 9.8%, CDU/CSU gained 7.7%).

And of the 4.7% for the AfD, polls showed that by far most of their voters came from the FDP and a considerable number from the socialist Left Party. 40% of the AfD voters said they voted for the party "out of conviction", but 60% said "because of disagreement with the other parties". So the AfD managed to win many protest voters, not few of which who have previously voted for the Left Party.

Would it not be politically intelligent of the greens to form a coalition with Merkel? I mean clearly, the fact that she and her party is so popular means that being agreeable and making things work with her will make them look more... appealing to a broader spectrum of people, increasing their odds of gaining more votes next election season.

Or aren't there any indepdents that can be drawn into a partnership with the CDU/CSU to fill those 3-4 missings seats?
And I think I remember that the federal govt in Germany is bicameral. Does the CDU/CSU get majority in both the senate and the other one (In my country it's house of deputies, but it varies from country to country).

 

[Artevelde]

Yes. The left clearly failed reaching its goals.

On the other side, the CDU/CSU also failed to suck up all of the FDP voters (FDP lost 9.8%, CDU/CSU gained 7.7%).

And of the 4.7% for the AfD, polls showed that by far most of their voters came from the FDP and a considerable number from the socialist Left Party. 40% of the AfD voters said they voted for the party "out of conviction", but 60% said "because of disagreement with the other parties". So the AfD managed to win many protest voters, not few of which who have previously voted for the Left Party.

Sounds very logical. Unless the Euro-crisis rises to new proportions I don't see much future for tha AfD.

The more worrying queston is if the FDP will manage to survive this. They did - just - manage to get back into the Hessen Landtag, but even there they lost heavily. I think there will be some serious infighting and settling of scores. But in the end I hope the FDP manages to re-establish itself as a viable and useful Liberal Party. It would be a shame to lose this essential element of German traditional democratic politics.

 

[Rainman05]

Yeah, tell that to the 1,028,322 Germans who voted FDP or the 809,817 Germans who voted the Anti-euro party, or 962,946 Germans who voted the Pirate party... :roll:

You leave them with a thumb in their mouth. :thumbdown

P.S. What we have is in fact the big parties "stealing" votes/seats from the small parties (those who failed to pass 5% barrier). Very democratic indeed.

Well, if I were to make the most democratic/perfect electoral system I'd have it be as follows:

Multiparty system
Mixed member representation (so this is the way it is in germany, half the parliament is voted directly from people and the other half is voted from the prefered party). So say in your region, there is Herp Derpington who is of part Derps for Derpania, a party you don't really like but you like Herp Derpington because he is good guy, with integrity and moral sense. So you go and vote for him. If he wins, he goes and puts his ass in one of the seats in parliament. But the other half of parliament is filled according to the national party votes... so if you don't like Derps for Derpania and you like Free Derpanian Party; you can vote for the FDP despite voting for Herp Derpington who wasn't an FDP.

The way you can improve this is by having it in a run-off way. so when you vote for Herp Derpington, you can also put in #2 another guy if you want. So that if Herp doesn't win, your votes go to your 2nd favorite person and he may win.
And you do the same with the national parties too. You like the FDP? Put #1 next to them in the ballot box but just in case they don't win, you can put #2 next to another party and help them cross the 5% hurdle or increase their numbers.

So that would be the best way of doing voting in my opinion.

 

[Artevelde]

Would it not be politically intelligent of the greens to form a coalition with Merkel? I mean clearly, the fact that she and her party is so popular means that being agreeable and making things work with her will make them look more... appealing to a broader spectrum of people, increasing their odds of gaining more votes next election season.

Or aren't there any indepdents that can be drawn into a partnership with the CDU/CSU to fill those 3-4 missings seats?
And I think I remember that the federal govt in Germany is bicameral. Does the CDU/CSU get majority in both the senate and the other one (In my country it's house of deputies, but it varies from country to country).

It would be sensible of the Greens to do that from a strategic point of view. After all, by not being open to a coalition with the CDU/CSU they make themselves totally dependent on the SPD. But I think the ideological divide between (most) Greens and most of the CDU/CSU is simply too deep for now.