Germany officially elected Queen Angela I in a landslide-- FDP and anti-Euros out

[jschie]

And I think I remember that the federal govt in Germany is bicameral. Does the CDU/CSU get majority in both the senate and the other one (In my country it's house of deputies, but it varies from country to country).

In the German Senate are CDU/CSU and Greens in minority.
The senate ist dominated by the SPD.

 

[Artevelde]

Yeah, tell that to the 2,082,305 Germans who voted FDP or the 2,052,372 Germans who voted the Anti-euro party, or 958,507 Germans who voted the Pirate party... :roll:

You leave them with a thumb in their mouth. :thumbdown

P.S. What we have is in fact the big parties "stealing" votes/seats from the small parties (those who failed to pass 5% barrier). Very democratic indeed.

A totally unworkable Parliament without a stable majority would be much worse for democracy.

 

[Rainman05]

It would be sensible of the Greens to do that from a strategic point of view. After all, by not being open to a coalition with the CDU/CSU they make themselves totally dependent on the SPD. But I think the ideological divide between (most) Greens and most of the CDU/CSU is simply too deep for now.

Yes, I know that. Months ago German guy and I had an interesting discussion on those topics and he did tell me that the greens are not very fond of Merkel and her party. But what of the independents? are there any independents in the parliament?

 

[Medusa]

she is my queen too :lol:

 

[Red_Dave]

The reason you need to have a barrier is that while multi-party system is good, you can't afford to have dozens small parties in the parliament, especially if you are a parliamentary republic. It would drag negotiations on and on and no clear success... a lot of bureaucracy and politics, little work done for the benefit of the people.

So have a breaking point.

In my country there is the 5% rule for the same reason, and it's a good reason as I said.
But there are ways around if. If you form a coalition with another smaller party, you need 6% of the vote. So say you are 2 small parties who can't get 5% but 3% each... form a coalition and you get the needed 6% and you're in. And as a coalition with 6% you can actually matter... whether if there was no entry barrier, you could technically fill the parliament with 100 small parties of 1% of the vote each and then what? Game of thrones on the taxpayers' dime.

Elect the head of the executive branch directly and you have the best of both worlds.

 

[jschie]

But what of the independents? are there any independents in the parliament?

No.
Independents get independents in Germany when they sit in the parliament and than leave their party without entering another party.
Independents can get into parliament theoretically, but in reality they have no chance to win a seat.

 

[PeteEU]

Whoever invented this 5% barrier is a MF. I don't think it's democratic at all. Why shouldn't minorities have a say, hm?

Lets see... US, UK, and France..

 

[Rainman05]

No.
Independents get independents in Germany when they sit in the parliament and than leave their party without entering another party.
Independents can get into parliament theoretically, but in reality they have no chance to win a seat.

Well that blows. Thanks for the info.

 

[jschie]

Whoever invented this 5% barrier is a MF. I don't think it's democratic at all. Why shouldn't minorities have a say, hm?

15,8% of the votes were given to small parties.
The system would be very complicated if the 5% barrier would be a 2% barrier.

 

[German guy]

Sounds very logical. Unless the Euro-crisis rises to new proportions I don't see much future for tha AfD.

The more worrying queston is if the FDP will manage to survive this. They did - just - manage to get back into the Hessen Landtag, but even there they lost heavily. I think there will be some serious infighting and settling of scores. But in the end I hope the FDP manages to re-establish itself as a viable and useful Liberal Party. It would be a shame to lose this essential element of German traditional democratic politics.

Just checked: The FDP is currently still present in nine out of 16 German state parliaments. (Though only coalition partner in one state government, in Saxony.) So there is probably potential to regenerate -- if they do it well.

 

[German guy]

Well that blows. Thanks for the info.

Well, independents are free to run in the respective districts. It's true that hardly any independent has ever won a plurality in a district, but that's not because of institutional or legal disadvantages, but because the voters apparently don't like independents.

 

[German guy]

That's the idea of "democracy", isn't it?

Well, no. The idea of representative democracy is that representants of different leanings are elected which then work for the country first -- their party or power second. Now of course this is only an ideal, but "crackpots" as I define them, are incapable of responsible work for the greater good.

 

[German guy]

Would it not be politically intelligent of the greens to form a coalition with Merkel? I mean clearly, the fact that she and her party is so popular means that being agreeable and making things work with her will make them look more... appealing to a broader spectrum of people, increasing their odds of gaining more votes next election season.

That would be extremely risky, maybe even deadly for the Greens. There were two CDU/Green coalitions on state level, and both failed before the term was over, and both parties lost in the following early elections. Mostly because, despite some agreement on many questions, the respective voters of both parties are culturally very different and often strongly dislike each other (conservative bourgeois people on one side, the heirs of student protests, individualism and social movements on the other).

On top of that, it seems that Merkel is "hugging her partner to death". When the SPD was her junior partner in her first term, it cost the SPD 11% of the votes. Now the FDP is cannibalized.

Merkel is very good at taking all the fame and shifting all the blame to her junior partners, for their common work. The Greens know that.

Then, the Greens might alienate the SPD on the long run, and better they have a very close partner in the opposition, than a very risky partner in government.

Or aren't there any indepdents that can be drawn into a partnership with the CDU/CSU to fill those 3-4 missings seats?
And I think I remember that the federal govt in Germany is bicameral. Does the CDU/CSU get majority in both the senate and the other one (In my country it's house of deputies, but it varies from country to country).

Asfaik, there are currently no independents in the German federal parliament.

Indeed, Merkel's CDU/CSU does not have a majority in the state chamber (Bundesrat): There is a clear majority for SPD and Greens. So even if Merkel's CDU/CSU had won a majority on their own, that would be an empty victory, because they would have to cooperate with SPD and Greens in the Bundesrat. So why not make it official and form a formal coalition with the SPD in the first place? -- that disciplines the SPD.

 

[German guy]

In the German Senate are CDU/CSU and Greens in minority.
The senate ist dominated by the SPD.

The Bundesrat is dominated by six SPD/Green coalitions (Schleswig-Holstein, Northrhine-Westphalia, Lower Saxony, Bremen, Rhineland-Palatinate, Baden-Württemberg), many of which are very large states with loads of seats. The SPD alone has only one small state (Hamburg).

Then, there are six CDU/SPD coalitions (Mecklenburg-WP., Berlin, Saxony-Anhalt, Thuringia, Saarland and soon probably Hesse too) in medium-size or small states.

Merkel won't get past the Greens too. CDU/CSU and SPD alone have no majority in the Bundesrat.

 

[DDD]

Even so, I don't think it's right. Look at the mess now. Should this rule not exist, the FDP, the anti-euro party and others would have a say in Germany's affairs. And Mrs. Merkel wouldn't scratch her head finding a coalition.
It's the same in my country too - 5% barrier for entering Parliament. Last elections my vote was dumped because the party didn't pass 5% and I felt screwed. It's just stupid.

Here it is three I think.

 

[joG]

... the election in Germany has one big winner:

View attachment 67154060

Angela Merkel and her center-right Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) became clearly strongest party with 41.5% of the votes, more than 15% of the votes ahead of their challenger, Peer Steinbrück's center-left Social Democrats (SPD) at 25.7%!

So the new Chancellor will be the old Chancellor: Merkel is as successful and powerful as never before and will continue for a 3rd term.


But maybe Merkel was *too* successful: Her CDU/CSU cannibalized their junior partner of the past four years, the moderately libertarian Free Democrats (FDP). That party was shattered and destroyed, fell from strong 14.6% in 2009 to weak 4.8% of the votes now -- and is kicked out of the federal parliament for the first time ever since 1949! (A party needs at least 5.0% of the votes to be represented.) Merkel's CDU/CSU sucked up more than 2 million voters from the FDP.

So Merkel will have to find a new junior partner -- her CDU/CSU is missing just three seats in the government to be able to govern all alone (which is totally incredible all in itself: The last time, a party won a majority on its own and didn't need a junior partner, was in 1957 with Konrad Adenauer!).

Ironically, this success is bitter for Merkel after all: There are no center-right coalition partners available, but Merkel will have to rely on a left-of-center party for a coalition: Either the center-left SPD (like in her first term 2005-09), or on the progressive-environmentalist Green Party.


Another remarkable outcome is the fact that a newcoming party, the conservative anti-euro currency party "Alternative for Germany" (AfD), which had just been founded in April, immediately reached 4.7% and only narrowly missed entering the parliament.


Here the official result:

Party (leaning): votes in % / gains and losses compared to 2009 / seats:

Christian Democrats CDU/CSU (center-right): 41.5% / + 7.7% / 311
Social Democrats SPD (center-left): 25.7% / +2.7% / 192
Left Party (socialist): 8.6% / -3.3% / 64
Green Party (progressive-environmentalist): 8.4% / -2.3% / 63

Below 5% and thus no seats in the parliament:

Free Democrats FDP (moderately libertarian): 4.8% / -9.8% / 0
Alternative for Germany AfD (anti-euro currency and bailouts): 4.7% / +4.7% / 0
Pirate Party (internet freedom and transparency): 2.2% / +0.2% / 0
National Democrats NPD (neo-Nazis): 1.5% / +-0.0% / 0
Free Voters (centrist): 1.0% / ? / 0

all others below 1.0%.


That's (approx.) what the new parliament will look like:

View attachment 67154062

As you can see, Merkel's CDU/CSU *almost* has a majority on their own.


What happens now? The next days, Merkel will probably start talks with the SPD and Greens to find a new junior partner. That will not be easy for her: The Greens are very unlikely to join Merkel, because the differences and animosities between both parties are just too big. But also the SPD is reluctant to join another "grand coalition" under Merkel, because last time they did that 2005-09, it caused them to lose more than 10% of the votes in the following election.

But in the end, the SPD will probably agree to support Merkel to give her a majority. But they'll probably be a tough negotiation partner and get through many of their policies against Merkel.

In theory, the SPD could kick out Merkel and form a coalition with Greens and socialist Left Party -- the three parties have a majority of three or four seats, but the SPD has clearly promised not to cooperate with the Left Party before the election. They couldn't break this promise without the risk of being destroyed in later elections, so this is no real option.

I was just reading this article and thought it worthwhile.
Jan-Werner Mueller | The Disastrously Boring Reign of Angela Merkel | Foreign Affairs

 

[PeteEU]

15,8% of the votes were given to small parties.
The system would be very complicated if the 5% barrier would be a 2% barrier.

Naw it would not get complicated. Denmark has a 2% barrier as does many other countries and it is just fine. More parties, means bigger coalition governments (especially on the left it seems), which imo is a good thing. Cant have a single party go nuts with its policies imo.

Now complicated is what it gets in places like Italy... which also has thresholds, but MANY hehe.

 

[Canell]

A totally unworkable Parliament without a stable majority would be much worse for democracy.

Yeah, ignoring (or should I say stealing) 15.8% of the votes, because they didn't pass 5% is so much better. :roll: The epiphany of democracy!

OK, let's imagine there was no entry barrier. Wouldn't it be easier for Merkel to form a coalition?

 

[Canell]

Lets see... US, UK, and France..

So what, 3+ wrongs don't make a right! :naughty

 

[RabidAlpaca]

Whoever invented this 5% barrier is a MF. I don't think it's democratic at all. Why shouldn't minorities have a say, hm?

I think it was designed to prevent having 100 parties each with 1%. The 5% barrier keeps the maximum theoretical party level at 20, which I think is already way more than enough. We'd do well as Americans to learn from their system. I'm tired of getting ****ed from both sides by the Republocrats.

Well, we'll see if the AfD will manage to establish itself in the next few years, despite not entering the federal parliament. After all, their 4.7% (from zero a few months ago) are a considerable success already. And in a few months, there are elections for the EU parliament ...

Yeah they've made solid progress. I'm kind of baffled though why the Germans elected 'mutti' again. I guess in comparison to the SPD guy it makes sense, but maybe it's just a major cultural difference. As an American I'm very worried about presidents staying in power for decades.

 

[Canell]

Well, no. The idea of representative democracy is that representants of different leanings are elected which then work for the country first -- their party or power second. Now of course this is only an ideal, but "crackpots" as I define them, are incapable of responsible work for the greater good.

No, GG, democracy means that everyone will be respected (well, according to his merits) and no one will be ignored. If one is a crackpot there are enough people to rule him out (50%+ system). If suddenly the crackpots breed to be 51% of the population, than I'm sorry that will be the country of crackpots.
Fortunately I don't think that will happen. But I'm not happy ignoring crackpots votes too.

 

[Andalublue]

... the election in Germany has one big winner:

View attachment 67154060

Angela Merkel and her center-right Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) became clearly strongest party with 41.5% of the votes, more than 15% of the votes ahead of their challenger, Peer Steinbrück's center-left Social Democrats (SPD) at 25.7%!

So the new Chancellor will be the old Chancellor: Merkel is as successful and powerful as never before and will continue for a 3rd term.


But maybe Merkel was *too* successful: Her CDU/CSU cannibalized their junior partner of the past four years, the moderately libertarian Free Democrats (FDP). That party was shattered and destroyed, fell from strong 14.6% in 2009 to weak 4.8% of the votes now -- and is kicked out of the federal parliament for the first time ever since 1949! (A party needs at least 5.0% of the votes to be represented.) Merkel's CDU/CSU sucked up more than 2 million voters from the FDP.

So Merkel will have to find a new junior partner -- her CDU/CSU is missing just three seats in the government to be able to govern all alone (which is totally incredible all in itself: The last time, a party won a majority on its own and didn't need a junior partner, was in 1957 with Konrad Adenauer!).

Ironically, this success is bitter for Merkel after all: There are no center-right coalition partners available, but Merkel will have to rely on a left-of-center party for a coalition: Either the center-left SPD (like in her first term 2005-09), or on the progressive-environmentalist Green Party.


Another remarkable outcome is the fact that a newcoming party, the conservative anti-euro currency party "Alternative for Germany" (AfD), which had just been founded in April, immediately reached 4.7% and only narrowly missed entering the parliament.


Here the official result:

Party (leaning): votes in % / gains and losses compared to 2009 / seats:

Christian Democrats CDU/CSU (center-right): 41.5% / + 7.7% / 311
Social Democrats SPD (center-left): 25.7% / +2.7% / 192
Left Party (socialist): 8.6% / -3.3% / 64
Green Party (progressive-environmentalist): 8.4% / -2.3% / 63

Below 5% and thus no seats in the parliament:

Free Democrats FDP (moderately libertarian): 4.8% / -9.8% / 0
Alternative for Germany AfD (anti-euro currency and bailouts): 4.7% / +4.7% / 0
Pirate Party (internet freedom and transparency): 2.2% / +0.2% / 0
National Democrats NPD (neo-Nazis): 1.5% / +-0.0% / 0
Free Voters (centrist): 1.0% / ? / 0

all others below 1.0%.


That's (approx.) what the new parliament will look like:

View attachment 67154062

As you can see, Merkel's CDU/CSU *almost* has a majority on their own.


What happens now? The next days, Merkel will probably start talks with the SPD and Greens to find a new junior partner. That will not be easy for her: The Greens are very unlikely to join Merkel, because the differences and animosities between both parties are just too big. But also the SPD is reluctant to join another "grand coalition" under Merkel, because last time they did that 2005-09, it caused them to lose more than 10% of the votes in the following election.

But in the end, the SPD will probably agree to support Merkel to give her a majority. But they'll probably be a tough negotiation partner and get through many of their policies against Merkel.

In theory, the SPD could kick out Merkel and form a coalition with Greens and socialist Left Party -- the three parties have a majority of three or four seats, but the SPD has clearly promised not to cooperate with the Left Party before the election. They couldn't break this promise without the risk of being destroyed in later elections, so this is no real option.

I guess the SPD made the 'no deal with Die Linke' statement because they see that group as their natural rival for the centre-left heartland votes. It seems stupid to me that any of the leftish parties would ensure Merkel a governing majority when they could take power themselves in a grand coalition of the left. Perhaps they see it as a less risky option to support the right than have to form a broad-based, centre-left platform themselves. Whoever goes into coalition with Merkel will see themselves lose ground to their other leftist rivals because they will emphatically NOT be running any part of the show.

 

[PeteEU]

Yeah, ignoring (or should I say stealing) 15.8% of the votes, because they didn't pass 5% is so much better. :roll: The epiphany of democracy!

OK, let's imagine there was no entry barrier. Wouldn't it be easier for Merkel to form a coalition?

If it was one person or party that was ignored then I would agree.. but since it is 3+ parties then well those are the rules.

But looking at election systems around, it is no way as bad as some. For example election systems where 40% are ignored because of gerryrigged election boundaries.

 

[Camlon]

... the election in Germany has one big winner:

View attachment 67154060

I wouldn't say Merkel is the winner at all. In fact the left got more representatives than the right and they increased their share from the last election.

What is the point of increasing your share of votes if it is at expense of your closest partners.

 

[Canell]

If it was one person or party that was ignored then I would agree.. but since it is 3+ parties then well those are the rules.

Well yeah, once upon a time, the prevailing type of rule was the monarchy. :wink-wink