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[Germany] A new poll "utterly terrifies" one UK Member of Parliament. (1 Viewer)

Juin

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The Utterly Deplorable AfD is within striking distance of the Mildly Deplorable CDU.




1738648276799.png



If this poll has any legs then there has been a tectonic shift. A few weeks back the gap was more like 10 pts. CDU had cleared the 30% mark by a point or two. AfD was in the high teens.




* AfD is MAGA on steroids. CDU is comparable to Mitt RINO Republicans. SPD to Jesse Jackson Democrats. Greens are Greens. Greens are supposed to be lovers, not fighters. Not these days. Lets say the Green Frau Annalena Baerbock is a Green who has been mugged. By Vladimir Putin. Putin’s Special Military Operation transformed her from a meek and mild hippie into a fire breathing Gorgon. She should be renamed der Krieg Frau



 
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The Utterly Deplorable AfD is within striking distance of the Mildly Deplorable CDU.




View attachment 67554411



If this poll has any legs then there has been a tectonic shift. A few weeks back the gap was more like 10 pts. CDU had cleared the 30% mark by a point or two. AfD was in the high teens.

I'm not real big on information in Europe. I don't particularly care as long as the USA isn't being dragged into anything.

But I think the AfD is a conservative/right wing party, correct? But what is the CDU/CSU, communists? Socialist? A bit of both?

In any case, doesn't any Party or coalition have to have more than 50% in order to form a government?
 
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The Utterly Deplorable AfD is within striking distance of the Mildly Deplorable CDU.




View attachment 67554411



If this poll has any legs then there has been a tectonic shift. A few weeks back the gap was more like 10 pts. CDU had cleared the 30% mark by a point or two. AfD was in the high teens.
It’ll be interesting to see. The other polls are still uniformly showing a 6-9% lead. And the traditional polls didn’t really underestimate AfD at all in 2021.

But polling has not been particularly consistent year to year.
 
I'm not real big on information in Europe. I don't particularly care as long as the USA isn't being dragged into anything.

But I think the AfD is a conservative/right wing party, correct? But what is the CDU/CSU, communists? Socialist? A bit of both?

In any case, doesn't any Party or coalition have to have more than 50% in order to form a government?



CDU is the major center right party in Germany. Basically the German equivalent of the GOP. But with a twist. Bavaria is a conservative German State many have compared to Texas. So, lets say Bavaria is German Texas. The CDU is the national GOP and operates every where except in Bavaria. Bavaria has its own CDU called CSU. When it comes to Federal elections both run as the combination CDU/CSU.

AfD is to the right of CDU/CSU.

That makes up the German right.

February 23rd Germans vote for the Federal Parliament or Bundestag. A Party or Coalition needs a majority of the Parliamentarians.

There's habit in Europe for mainstream parties to hold up their nostrils and vow never to govern with the likes of Marine le Pen in France, AfD in Germany, Trump and MAGA in the US. When the vow was taken never to work with AfD, the AfD was in the single digits. It's problematic today because the AfD is now the second party in Germany.
 
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German Chancellors are not directly elected. So there's only a poll of voter preference. It's not even close. The Deplorable Alice Weidel leads the field by miles.



1738651049877.png
 
It’ll be interesting to see. The other polls are still uniformly showing a 6-9% lead. And the traditional polls didn’t really underestimate AfD at all in 2021.

But polling has not been particularly consistent year to year.



My suspicion is Trump winning was bound to have some effect.
 
I'm not real big on information in Europe. I don't particularly care as long as the USA isn't being dragged into anything.

But I think the AfD is a conservative/right wing party, correct? But what is the CDU/CSU, communists? Socialist? A bit of both?

In any case, doesn't any Party or coalition have to have more than 50% in order to form a government?

Frankly, I am worried that if Elon gets involved in Europe, he'll neglect DOGE and we'll be stuck with someone like Vivek.

It has to be exhausting running the government, a half dozen companies and religiously posting on X while maintaining top rankings on both Diablo IV and Path of Exile 2, and now Europe?

If a person can possibly win too much, I have a feeling we're about to find out.

MAGA.
 
But I think the AfD is a conservative/right wing party, correct? But what is the CDU/CSU, communists? Socialist? A bit of both?

AfD (Pew Research article)

Populist, nationalist and anti-islam with a few of its leadership having been found to have neo-nazi ideology. Bjorn Hocke has been fined twice for using Nazi slogans.

Frankly, I am worried that if Elon gets involved in Europe,

The EU won't let him. He may have half of all the money in the world but the rumour says so does Putin and he's not done well despite his best attempts.
 
I'm not real big on information in Europe. I don't particularly care as long as the USA isn't being dragged into anything.

But I think the AfD is a conservative/right wing party, correct? But what is the CDU/CSU, communists? Socialist? A bit of both?

In any case, doesn't any Party or coalition have to have more than 50% in order to form a government?
AfD is 'populist'. All the others are 'elitist', in different ways. I would, if German, hesitate a little and then probably vote AfD.
 
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The Utterly Deplorable AfD is within striking distance of the Mildly Deplorable CDU.




View attachment 67554411



If this poll has any legs then there has been a tectonic shift. A few weeks back the gap was more like 10 pts. CDU had cleared the 30% mark by a point or two. AfD was in the high teens.




* AfD is MAGA on steroids. CDU is comparable to Mitt RINO Republicans. SPD to Jesse Jackson Democrats. Greens are Greens. Greens are supposed to be lovers, not fighters. Not these days. Lets say the Green Frau Annalena Baerbock is a Green who has been mugged. By Vladimir Putin. Putin’s Special Military Operation transformed her from a meek and mild hippie into a fire breathing Gorgon. She should be renamed der Krieg Frau



What a surprise! Far left MP quoted by far left UK website (which calls itself a newspaper though it does appear in print) does not approve of a right wing party. I would vote AfD if only to annoy you and thwart your feeble analysis of the German political scene - oh and because Alice Weidel is the most interesting politician in Europe.
 
Would take this poll with again of salt. Never heard of the Democracy Institute and if it is the one based in Washington...a think tank...then well.
 
The well established and respected Forsa poll is the reality of the federal election at this point.


February 4th....

Support for Germany's conservative bloc fell by 2 percentage points to 28% within a week, a survey showed on Tuesday after its lead candidate Friedrich Merz used the backing of the far-right to get a migration crackdown through parliament.

Less than three weeks before federal elections, the Forsa poll for RTL/ntv also showed support for Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democrats (SPD) holding steady at 16%. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) was unchanged at 20%.

Merz, running for chancellor on the conservative CDU/CSU alliance's ticket, last week won parliamentary approval for a proposal to restrict migration with the help of votes from the AfD, breaking a taboo on cooperation with the far-right.




This loss of a couple of percentage points by the CDU/CSU Union should burn the Union leader Fredrich Mertz for joining with AfD on his 'get tough' immigration proposal that passed. Mertz knows his CDU would schism if he forms a coalition with AfD. So this hookup with AfD on immigration is likely to be a one off.

CDU/CSU are loathe to have another of their many past coalitions with Scholz SPD that went bust Big Time in the 3-party coalition with FDP and the Greens. FDP is also wiped out of this election but the Greens continue to hang in there. Mertz problem with a Greens coalition is his flat out focus on economic growth and chuck the climate stuff.

Woe is Germany any more.
 
What a surprise! Far left MP quoted by far left UK website (which calls itself a newspaper though it does appear in print) does not approve of a right wing party. I would vote AfD if only to annoy you and thwart your feeble analysis of the German political scene - oh and because Alice Weidel is the most interesting politician in Europe.
The bolded (by me) covers just about anything the OP posts on Germany or, for that matter, Europe as a whole.
 
If this poll has any legs ........................................................~
practically nothing you post ever has any legs, especially with the sources you prefer to bore us all with.

And I don't mean The Independent but who the fudge is the Democracy Institute?

:rolleyes::sleep:
 
What a surprise! Far left MP quoted by far left UK website (which calls itself a newspaper though it does appear in print) does not approve of a right wing party. I would vote AfD if only to annoy you and thwart your feeble analysis of the German political scene - oh and because Alice Weidel is the most interesting politician in Europe.



😊 My analysis cannot be anything but feeble as my grasp of Germany and Germans is very thin the moment I step outside history books. 🙃

Alice Weidel is an accomplished Piper. Germans appear to love her tunes
 
To put some perspective onto the OP's posted drivel, these are the latest polls:
Wahlumfrage.JPG

an alternative (Infratest Dimap) from last Thursday:

Infratest.JPG

German Chancellors are not directly elected. So there's only a poll of voter preference. It's not even close. The Deplorable Alice Weidel leads the field by miles........................................~
total bull, she's last in popularity polls with even the Stalinist Wagenknecht coming in slightly better.

One can only wish that (IOW cannot make you) stop trolling this forum with your mindless tripe.

Jesus wept.:rolleyes:
 
😊 My analysis cannot be anything but feeble
indeed
as my grasp of Germany and Germans is very thin the moment I step outside history books.
It's thin (an intended euphemism for "non-existent") even when you use the history books that you appear to favor
Alice Weidel is an accomplished Piper. Germans appear to love her tunes
Define "Germans".

Oh hell, forget it and don't even bother.:rolleyes:
 
Would take this poll with again of salt.
It actually belongs down the crapper :D
Never heard of the Democracy Institute and if it is the one based in Washington...a think tank...then well.
If that's who they are (and The Independent states them as so being without even linking to the poll) the crapper is indeed the appropriate receptacle.
 
This loss of a couple of percentage points by the CDU/CSU Union should burn the Union leader Fredrich Mertz for joining with AfD on his 'get tough' immigration proposal that passed.


The proposal did not pass. The volk want the measure, but the German deep state voted against the public to preserve the anti AfD firewall. The anti AfD firewall is more important than a necessary bill



Mertz knows his CDU would schism if he forms a coalition with AfD. So this hookup with AfD on immigration is likely to be a one off.



Its not a CDU specific problem. As long as the AfD was a fringe party in the low single digits the firewall carried no cost. At a fifth of the population the firewall becomes difficult to hold. You cannot just wall off a fifth of the population without problems.



CDU/CSU are loathe to have another of their many past coalitions with Scholz SPD that went bust Big Time in the 3-party coalition with FDP and the Greens. FDP is also wiped out of this election but the Greens continue to hang in there. Mertz problem with a Greens coalition is his flat out focus on economic growth and chuck the climate stuff.

Woe is Germany any more.



Unless a CDU drop is accompanied by a Green and SPD rise a CDU/SPD/Green coalition becomes very complicated. They are on opposite sides of the political spectrum. If they pull low numbers it will be a very brittle coalition.

High Noon at the Bundestag. Alice Weidel ist kommen! The sharpest shooter in the whole Deutschland. She taking no prisoners this time.
 
Unless a CDU drop is accompanied by a Green and SPD rise a CDU/SPD/Green coalition becomes very complicated. They are on opposite sides of the political spectrum. If they pull low numbers it will be a very brittle coalition.
That's what I said in my post and I wasn't expecting any echo of it. I gave the conflicting for instance that Mertz of the CDU has made strongly clear he is for economic recovery while chucking the toy box full of climate stuff the Greens keep in their offices. All the same Mme. Baerbock the foreign minister is not a Green who is not about to let a good crisis go to waste. With the Old Economy wallowing in the dumps it's an excellent time for the Greens to build up on their new clean green energy economic base.

I know Baerbock scares you who are AfD types but that's not my intention. I'm just pointing out that the Greens continue to be in the electoral running come rain or come shine. And that as we see with AfD and MAGA hard work and persistence by True Believers pays off. That it's democracy that in so many places is discombobulated and on the confused and disorganized defensive.
 
Its not a CDU specific problem. As long as the AfD was a fringe party in the low single digits the firewall carried no cost. At a fifth of the population the firewall becomes difficult to hold. You cannot just wall off a fifth of the population without problems.

High Noon at the Bundestag. Alice Weidel ist kommen! The sharpest shooter in the whole Deutschland. She taking no prisoners this time.
You can't deport that many targeted immigrants without problems either.

The established polls that are reliable and respectable have the AfD trailing the CDU/CSU Union very much outside of the margin of error. While in country after country the armband rights gets more votes than the polling trends indicate, AfD is consistently 8-10 points behind the frontrunning Union.

That's minority status in the Bundestag and AfD is just going to have to accept that or resort to a failed putsch -- and be cast out for another 70 or 80 years once this blows over minus AfD in parliament. AfD looking at its 20% or so max or a failed putsch is a dim or a non existent future. AfD doesn't have the juice with anywhere near enough voters to gain state power whether electorally or by other means. The post war German Establishment is locked and loaded against 'em.
 
The proposal did not pass. The volk want the measure, but the German deep state voted against the public to preserve the anti AfD firewall. The anti AfD firewall is more important than a necessary bill
Yet again further demonstration of your utter ignorance on German matters. The proposal DID pass on Wednesday with votes from the AfD, what did not pass (on Friday) was a subsequent bill.

In the latter case with even CDU members having abstained.
Its not a CDU specific problem. As long as the AfD was a fringe party in the low single digits the firewall carried no cost. At a fifth of the population the firewall becomes difficult to hold. You cannot just wall off a fifth of the population without problems.
What absolute balderdash, of course one can.
Unless a CDU drop is accompanied by a Green and SPD rise a CDU/SPD/Green coalition becomes very complicated. They are on opposite sides of the political spectrum. If they pull low numbers it will be a very brittle coalition.
With current polls (not the crap that you contaminated this forum with) black/green/red coalition would be the only option to surpass 50 pct.

But polls and elections arer two completely different things.
High Noon at the Bundestag. Alice Weidel ist kommen!
and on top of it all you have to insult the German language.
The sharpest shooter in the whole Deutschland. She taking no prisoners this time.
Weidel is a barely concealed fascist bitch.
 
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The Utterly Deplorable AfD is within striking distance of the Mildly Deplorable CDU.




View attachment 67554411



If this poll has any legs then there has been a tectonic shift. A few weeks back the gap was more like 10 pts. CDU had cleared the 30% mark by a point or two. AfD was in the high teens.




* AfD is MAGA on steroids. CDU is comparable to Mitt RINO Republicans. SPD to Jesse Jackson Democrats. Greens are Greens. Greens are supposed to be lovers, not fighters. Not these days. Lets say the Green Frau Annalena Baerbock is a Green who has been mugged. By Vladimir Putin. Putin’s Special Military Operation transformed her from a meek and mild hippie into a fire breathing Gorgon. She should be renamed der Krieg Frau



LOL all Germans are deplorables. Their leaders are perfect examples of idiots in charge.
 

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