• This is a political forum that is non-biased/non-partisan and treats every person's position on topics equally. This debate forum is not aligned to any political party. In today's politics, many ideas are split between and even within all the political parties. Often we find ourselves agreeing on one platform but some topics break our mold. We are here to discuss them in a civil political debate. If this is your first visit to our political forums, be sure to check out the RULES. Registering for debate politics is necessary before posting. Register today to participate - it's free!

German economy sees 'record' growth of 2.2%

kaya'08

DP Veteran
Joined
Nov 25, 2008
Messages
6,363
Reaction score
1,318
Location
British Turk
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Centrist
The German economy grew by 2.2% in the three months to the end of June, its fastest quarterly growth in more than 20 years, official figures show.

"Such quarter-on-quarter growth has never been recorded before in reunified Germany," the national statistics office, Destatis, said.

The main reason for the higher-than-expected growth was strong exports, helped by a weaker euro.

BBC News - German economy sees 'record' growth of 2.2%

Both the Anti/Pro Euro's should rejoice in this news. Germany is a close trading partner with or without the EU and it will reflect on the regions development. The US growth is backpedaling and we don't want to go there with them.
 

Civil1z@tion

Member
Joined
Jun 1, 2010
Messages
247
Reaction score
105
Location
US
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Libertarian
The Eurozone and the UK present a number of austerity plans and most see more economic recovery (Greece being a notable exception). The US shows no signs of implementing significant anti-deficit measures and sees its recovery weaken. Now clearly there will be more factors involved than just that, but it seems like austerity isn't bringing on the dreaded stalled recovery we've been warned about.
 

Djoop

DP Veteran
Joined
Sep 17, 2009
Messages
1,932
Reaction score
683
Gender
Undisclosed
Political Leaning
Undisclosed
Inflation is up as well, there's no growth in real terms.
 

Djoop

DP Veteran
Joined
Sep 17, 2009
Messages
1,932
Reaction score
683
Gender
Undisclosed
Political Leaning
Undisclosed
Exactly, economists would never think to take a factor like inflation into consideration... right.

Well, if they did please be so kind to educate me. I'm also quite interested to get your view on how inflation is calculated and whether it's political or not. Do they take population growth, public (over)spending and tax increases into account. Real terms; is the german economy growing/producing more and is the purchasing power of the avg german increasing or not. Thanks!
 

Wiseone

Banned
DP Veteran
Joined
Jul 26, 2009
Messages
12,177
Reaction score
7,551
Location
Ft. Campbell, KY
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Independent
Well, if they did please be so kind to educate me. I'm also quite interested to get your view on how inflation is calculated and whether it's political or not. Do they take population growth, public (over)spending and tax increases into account. Real terms; is the german economy growing/producing more and is the purchasing power of the avg german increasing or not. Thanks!

I'd sooner trust the opinion of Eurostat along with the German finance and economic ministers rather than assume there is some sort of mistake or error on their part, especially when neither of us have the knowledge, data, or education to make a better argument or calculation.
Now I'm not going to spend my time researching exactly how Eurostat and the other economic and financial bodies in Europe and Germany calculate their numbers, simply to prove your unsupported statement that "Inflation is up as well, there's no growth in real terms" false. Its your responsibility to prove your own statement true and find reliable sources to back up your claim, one simply cannot make a statement and then expect another to prove it wrong, you have that burden of proof.

So instead of giving me a homework assignment, you should dig through all the numbers, data, and whatever else and tell me exactly where the considerations for inflation, and any other factor or variable you assume are missing, should be going and where they are missing.

Until then the little debate about whether the German economy has really grown by 2.2% percent, or if it has grown at all has the Eurostat, German government, and several other reputable sources on the side and supporting the statement that it has in fact grown, and in the opposition there's you and your key board.
 

Djoop

DP Veteran
Joined
Sep 17, 2009
Messages
1,932
Reaction score
683
Gender
Undisclosed
Political Leaning
Undisclosed
I'd sooner trust the opinion of Eurostat along with the German finance and economic ministers rather than assume there is some sort of mistake or error on their part, especially when neither of us have the knowledge, data, or education to make a better argument or calculation.
Now I'm not going to spend my time researching exactly how Eurostat and the other economic and financial bodies in Europe and Germany calculate their numbers, simply to prove your unsupported statement that "Inflation is up as well, there's no growth in real terms" false. Its your responsibility to prove your own statement true and find reliable sources to back up your claim, one simply cannot make a statement and then expect another to prove it wrong, you have that burden of proof.
So instead of giving me a homework assignment, you should dig through all the numbers, data, and whatever else and tell me exactly where the considerations for inflation, and any other factor or variable you assume are missing, should be going and where they are missing.
Until then the little debate about whether the German economy has really grown by 2.2% percent, or if it has grown at all has the Eurostat, German government, and several other reputable sources on the side and supporting the statement that it has in fact grown, and in the opposition there's you and your key board.
I assume you do the homework before commenting on my posts or simply ask me to explain my position. It's a pity you don't want to answer my questions, unlike others I do not demand evidence all the time, I can simply state I don't share a certain assertion.

I hoped you would respond by saying that they do deduct inflation from the nominal GDP by using price-adjusted figures, then this could have been a debate and I could spend some quality time with my keyboard.

I'm not looking at Q2 alone. Did the German GDP grow > 2% in Q1, do they expect it to grow > 2% in Q3 and Q4. The answer is no, they do not. In the meantime, inflation has gone up considerable from almost nothing in 2009 to 1% and expected to rise to 1,4% (which is a moderate projection looking at the rest of the eurozone). Not that I trust these figures at all but I'll glady accept your faith in these institutions. I do note that if they were correct, there would not have been 2,2% growth in the first place. Also, from 2008 there's no growth, there's still (roughly) a 2% decrease. In terms of purchasing power, germans shouldn't expect any growth the coming years.

Real economic growth (nominal growth minus inflation) is usually brought about by technological innovation and positive external forces. Looking at the other major economies, these external forces are simply not there atm. I don't see much movement in consumer spending or unemployment either. So, where is this growth coming from. What will happen with this figure once the German government decides to cut the stimulus. Maybe they should start with making projections day by day, so we can report these 'surges' more often. It's politics.
 

Infinite Chaos

DP Veteran
Joined
Oct 28, 2007
Messages
18,897
Reaction score
8,834
Gender
Undisclosed
Political Leaning
Undisclosed
Unfortunately, it may not last.

German investor confidence sees sharp drop
German investor confidence has fallen sharply this month on fears that the strong economic growth recorded in the second quarter will not last.

The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment fell from 21.2 in July to 14 in August - its lowest level since April 2009.

The German economy grew by 2.2% in the three months to June, its fastest quarterly growth in more than 20 years.

But ZEW said Germany's dependence on exports meant any slowdown abroad posed "major risks" to growth.

Analysts had expected a much smaller drop in the index to about 20 or 21. BBC Business Pages

Either way, we are still in for a long slow recovery from where we were 2-3 years ago.
 

PeteEU

DP Veteran
Joined
Mar 11, 2006
Messages
36,146
Reaction score
12,528
Location
Denmark
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Centrist
Unfortunately, it may not last.



Either way, we are still in for a long slow recovery from where we were 2-3 years ago.

We shall see. Media have a bad tendency lately of talking down economies to worse than they are...
 

Infinite Chaos

DP Veteran
Joined
Oct 28, 2007
Messages
18,897
Reaction score
8,834
Gender
Undisclosed
Political Leaning
Undisclosed
We shall see. Media have a bad tendency lately of talking down economies to worse than they are...

Agreed - however I don't think ZEW or BHF Bank which are the sources used by the BBC article are in the Media. It sounds like investors rather than media.
 

PeteEU

DP Veteran
Joined
Mar 11, 2006
Messages
36,146
Reaction score
12,528
Location
Denmark
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Centrist
Agreed - however I don't think ZEW or BHF Bank which are the sources used by the BBC article are in the Media. It sounds like investors rather than media.

same thing these days really. The so called "investors" are often speculators who try to influence day to day markets to earn money. They use the media to do so, hence there is not much difference between media and investors these days since media have lost their objectivity in the never ending drive for the sensational story. So if a bunch of these investors can come out and comment on how bad it is going and make stocks or currencies go down while on the flip side have bet a ton of money in that they will go down, well..

And lets not forget that it was these "investors" that created the hole we are in the first place, by either directly involving themselves in the problem or wilfully ignoring the clear signs (and logic) for a decade because after all they were earning billions in profit.

They were then caught with their pants down and claimed innocence and now the media who were just as complicit often (especially CNBC) are yet again turning to these so called experts and investors that created the freaking problem in the first place and are still pushing the same flawed economic theories that got us into the problem. Many of these investors and experts see the present situation as the perfect time to cut the public sector down to size for the future and create even a bigger gap between the have and have nots... that is why they are pushing for more deregulation (err yea right) and lower taxes over and over again while STILL demanding cuts in budget deficits and debt. You cant have it both ways ...

Any ways, a bit off track on the German economy, but I personally am far more optimistic now than I was 5 years ago or even 3 years ago.
 

American

Beer Lover Extraordinaire
Supporting Member
DP Veteran
Monthly Donator
Joined
Mar 11, 2006
Messages
90,446
Reaction score
29,022
Location
SE Virginia
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Conservative
The Eurozone and the UK present a number of austerity plans and most see more economic recovery (Greece being a notable exception). The US shows no signs of implementing significant anti-deficit measures and sees its recovery weaken. Now clearly there will be more factors involved than just that, but it seems like austerity isn't bringing on the dreaded stalled recovery we've been warned about.

As bad as the Republicans did at spending, THERE ISN'T A PRAYER IN HELL that Dems will EVER implement govt cutting measures.
 

Lord Tammerlain

DP Veteran
Joined
Jan 25, 2010
Messages
21,965
Reaction score
9,694
Gender
Undisclosed
Political Leaning
Undisclosed
The Eurozone and the UK present a number of austerity plans and most see more economic recovery (Greece being a notable exception). The US shows no signs of implementing significant anti-deficit measures and sees its recovery weaken. Now clearly there will be more factors involved than just that, but it seems like austerity isn't bringing on the dreaded stalled recovery we've been warned about.

The UK government cuts have not fully taken place yet, when they do, economic growth will drop in the UK fairly deeply just as it has in Ireland, Greece, and Iceland. 

Austerity in Germany does not mean much as they are an export orientated economy with good social support programs, combined with a high savings rate. The UK, Ireland and Greeece willhave to make drastic changes to become competitive on the world economy, Germanyalreadyis 
 

Lord Tammerlain

DP Veteran
Joined
Jan 25, 2010
Messages
21,965
Reaction score
9,694
Gender
Undisclosed
Political Leaning
Undisclosed
Any ways, a bit off track on the German economy, but I personally am far more optimistic now than I was 5 years ago or even 3 years ago.

Regarding  the German economy, I have been optimistic of it to a greater degree then that of most other European economies, or the US for many years. It has been making slow changes to its labour laws, has many internationally competitive industries, a trade and current account surplus and a high savings rate.

All things that point to a strong stable economic foundation

A country growth based on construction, financial (unless it is small) and has a low savings rate, a current account deficit, along with a large governmental deficit are not a basis for a strong stable economy
 

PeteEU

DP Veteran
Joined
Mar 11, 2006
Messages
36,146
Reaction score
12,528
Location
Denmark
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Centrist
Regarding  the German economy, I have been optimistic of it to a greater degree then that of most other European economies, or the US for many years. It has been making slow changes to its labour laws, has many internationally competitive industries, a trade and current account surplus and a high savings rate.

All things that point to a strong stable economic foundation

A country growth based on construction, financial (unless it is small) and has a low savings rate, a current account deficit, along with a large governmental deficit are not a basis for a strong stable economy

ARGH, that is impossible to read!
 

alexa

DP Veteran
Joined
May 14, 2009
Messages
4,684
Reaction score
1,340
Gender
Female
Political Leaning
Undisclosed
Lord Tammerlain
The UK government cuts have not fully taken place yet,  when they do, economic growth will drop in the UK  fairly deeply just as it has in Ireland, Greece,  and Iceland. 
 The UK, Ireland and Greeece willhave to make dras tic changes to become competitive on the world eco nomy, Germanyalreadyis 

Indeed after the political speech Osborne felt the need to make yesterday, when they got people to start being honest, we are on much more shaky ground than we were at the election. These cuts are almost certainly going to put us in double dip recession with another million or more to add to the unemployment queue - a group which will get an extra hit because of the reduction in services.
 
Top Bottom