10/31/19
LVIV, Ukraine – Amid the ongoing operation of disengagement of manpower and weapons near the Donbas war front town of Zolote (Gold), the Ukrainian military command should be keeping society informed of details, as Lieutenant General (retired) Ben Hodges, former U.S. Army Europe commanding general, said on Oct. 31 on the sidelines of the Lviv Security Forum. “There has to be transparency so that people have confidence that this is not just a Ukrainian withdrawal.” According to Ukraine’s military, the disengagement operation is expected to last 3 days and aims to ensure better security for the local civilian population by creating a demilitarized zone 1 square kilometer in the area around Zolote patrolled by Ukrainian law enforcers only. In the course of the process, the Special Monitoring Mission of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) confirmed both Ukrainian and Russian-backed troops leaving their respective combat posts with their weapons and relocating to pre-planned positions deeper in their rear fronts. In such a sensitive and controversial situation, the role of OSCE as an observer keeping an eye also on whether Russian-backed militants withdraw too is especially important, according to Hodges. However, the most recent developments in the war zone show that Russia and its proxies are impeding the organization’s monitoring activities. “So far, the Russian Federation has not allowed OSCE to do its job,” Hodges told the Kyiv Post. “I think that the international community, specifically Germany, France, the United States, should put pressure on the Russian Federation to allow OSCE to do its job.” So at the most strategic level, the greatest danger is now that the West “does not keep the pressure on Russia to live up to its agreements to respect OSCE,” Hodges added.
And in this regard, great powers like Germany must be playing an important role. Specifically, this is because it was Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the currently serving Germany’s federal president, who in 2016 invented an instrument of giving a go to the stalled implementation of Minsk accords known as the controversial “Steinmeier Formula” and eventually accepted by Kyiv on Oct. 1. “(Steinmeier) has his name on (the formula),” former U.S. Army commander in Europe said. “There’s a burden of responsibility on Germany to hold Russia accountable. Otherwise, the Steinmeier Formula is an empty bottle.” Notably, striking an acceptable deal at the table of negotiations will be of extreme complexity — since Russia is not truly interested in leaving Ukraine alone without securing major gains for itself at the strategic level. “The Kremlin has zero interest in a peaceful resolution of the situation that does not give them the strategic outcome of keeping Crimea and continuing to undermine the sovereignty of Ukraine,” Hodges said. “No matter what negotiations are handing, that will be their intention.” Nonetheless, Russia’s threat to Ukraine still unfolds far beyond occupied Crimea and Donbas, still very much focusing also on the maritime domain. The Kremlin’s desire to monopolize the Azov Sea and push Ukraine off the Black Sea hasn’t gone anywhere. “Russia's Navy will attempt to disrupt Odesa to keep the pressure on Ukraine’s coastline and maritime trade,” Hodges also told journalists. These are all deliberate efforts to put pressure on Odesa specifically and on Ukraine (in general).”