Vulnerable Democrats are facing a political bloodbath in the November midterms, Republicans say, as gas prices continue to climb from near-record highs following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Good luck in November, leftwingers. I hope that your doctrine to kill oil production in the US, will end up killing your party.
What’s your definition of a bloodbath? Today’s numbers, redistricting, 46 states have completed their redistricting, 4 more remaining. There are 391 newly drawn districts; 44 districts remain to be redrawn. Out of the 391 newly drawn districts, there are 37 competitive, switchable, at risk districts. Currently held by 25 Democrats and 12 Republicans. Safe seats as of today, 179 Democratic, 175 Republican.
The importance of safe seats is that they let you know how many seats from the competitive column and those districts yet to be drawn a party must win to gain control of the House. As of today, the democrats need 39 more seats to reach the magic number of 218. The Republicans need 43. It remains to be seen how many safe seats each of the 4 remaining states add to each party’s safe seat column. The 4 remaining states are New Hampshire, Florida, Louisiana and Missouri.
46 states aren’t 50, today isn’t election day. We have around 7 months to go. But the numbers give you something to work with, an idea of where things stand today. Today, no signs of a bloodbath or a red wave. The numbers certainly can and will change as time goes by. Their dynamic. If I were doing my forecast today, looking at just the at risk, competitive seats, the Republicans should pickup 6-8 seats, just enough to give them control of the House. No bloodbath though. The data is incomplete as we still have 4 states remaining who must draw their new maps. This is what the numbers show as of today. Not tomorrow and not 7 months from now, today.