• This is a political forum that is non-biased/non-partisan and treats every person's position on topics equally. This debate forum is not aligned to any political party. In today's politics, many ideas are split between and even within all the political parties. Often we find ourselves agreeing on one platform but some topics break our mold. We are here to discuss them in a civil political debate. If this is your first visit to our political forums, be sure to check out the RULES. Registering for debate politics is necessary before posting. Register today to participate - it's free!

Gallup: Unemployment Rate Jumps from 7.7% to 8.9% in 30 Days

cpwill

DP Veteran
Joined
Dec 20, 2009
Messages
72,673
Reaction score
37,803
Location
USofA
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Conservative
Outside of the federal government's Bureau of Labor statistics, the Gallup polling organization also tracks the nation's unemployment rate. While the BLS and Gallup findings might not always perfectly align, the trends almost always do and the small statistical differences just haven't been worthy of note. But now Gallup is showing a sizable 30 day jump in the unemployment rate, from 7.7% on July 21 to 8.9% today.

At the end of July, the BLS showed a 7.4% unemployment rate, compared to Gallup's 7.8%. Again, a difference not worthy of note. But Gallup's upward trend to almost 9% in just the last three weeks is alarming, especially because this is not a poll with a history of wild swings due to statistical anomalies. Gallup's sample size is a massive 30,000 adults and the rolling average is taken over a full 30 day period.
Gallup also shows an alarming increase in the number of underemployed (those with some work seeking more). During the same 30-day period, that number has jumped from 17.1% to 17.9%.


Underemployed, eh? Wonder if that has anything to do with the fact that companies across America are reducing hours and only creating part-time jobs in order to avoid costly Obamacare mandates?

 

Painter

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 17, 2013
Messages
583
Reaction score
314
Location
Florida
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Independent
Underemployed, eh? Wonder if that has anything to do with the fact that companies across America are reducing hours and only creating part-time jobs in order to avoid costly Obamacare mandates?

Didn't businesses get another full year extension for this? I would not expect them to lower hours a year and a half in advance.

Anyhow, I am not even sure you are wrong. I just wanted to say one thing to this...
The only people I know of personally that have had their hours cut recently were affected by the Sequester. (3 people)
 

Bronson

Banned
DP Veteran
Joined
Jun 13, 2012
Messages
3,195
Reaction score
1,192
Gender
Undisclosed
Political Leaning
Libertarian - Right
Didn't businesses get another full year extension for this? I would not expect them to lower hours a year and a half in advance.

Anyhow, I am not even sure you are wrong. I just wanted to say one thing to this...
The only people I know of personally that have had their hours cut recently were affected by the Sequester. (3 people)

Your sample size is not even worth mentioning

90% of the jobs being created are part time jobs. People graduating college with massive student loans aren't getting the careers they used to thanks to Obama and the Democrats
 

Sheik Yerbuti

Banned
DP Veteran
Joined
Jan 29, 2011
Messages
11,265
Reaction score
2,921
Gender
Undisclosed
Political Leaning
Liberal
[/FONT][/COLOR]

Underemployed, eh? Wonder if that has anything to do with the fact that companies across America are reducing hours and only creating part-time jobs in order to avoid costly Obamacare mandates?


Ummm ... you're comparing seasonal with non-seasonal data. Non-seasonal data has a propensity for jumping.

Because results are not seasonally adjusted, they are not directly comparable to numbers reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, which are based on workers 16 and older. Margin of error is ±1 percentage point. ~ Gallup
 

Beaudreaux

Preserve Protect Defend
Supporting Member
DP Veteran
Joined
Sep 13, 2012
Messages
18,233
Reaction score
15,861
Location
veni, vidi, volo - now back in NC
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Undisclosed
Ummm ... you're comparing seasonal with non-seasonal data. Non-seasonal data has a propensity for jumping.

Because results are not seasonally adjusted, they are not directly comparable to numbers reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, which are based on workers 16 and older. Margin of error is ±1 percentage point. ~ Gallup

Actually that's not what it means in this case. Gallup does not poll seasonal workers (kids in the workforce) like BLS does, so their number is a more accurate reflection of the adult population's employment status. Go to the BLS website and look at Table A for the month of July. It says 7.4% seasonally adjusted, and then keep reading each line item above and below that. Notice that in July alone, 37,000 people gave up and took themselves out of the workforce. There are other interesting facts in that table that are not reflected in the official BLS number. If Gallup's number didn't matter, they wouldn't take the time to do a daily poll.
 

cpwill

DP Veteran
Joined
Dec 20, 2009
Messages
72,673
Reaction score
37,803
Location
USofA
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Conservative
Didn't businesses get another full year extension for this? I would not expect them to lower hours a year and a half in advance.

Yeah, I've seen a number of policies built on the assumption that businesses do not plan for next year. They have an unfortunate tendency to fail to produce the predicted results...

Businesses absolutely factor in future costs to current investment (including in people). Not to do so invites death.
 

joG

DP Veteran
Joined
Jul 27, 2013
Messages
43,839
Reaction score
9,653
Gender
Undisclosed
Political Leaning
Independent
[/FONT][/COLOR]

Underemployed, eh? Wonder if that has anything to do with the fact that companies across America are reducing hours and only creating part-time jobs in order to avoid costly Obamacare mandates?


That is certainly different from the media take and if true, will make it difficult for the FED to tighten. But the size of reduction in government spending has to take a toll.
 

ItAin'tFree

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 2, 2013
Messages
1,293
Reaction score
338
Gender
Undisclosed
Political Leaning
Undisclosed
Food stamp stimulus is really working well, uh? LOL.
 

Sheik Yerbuti

Banned
DP Veteran
Joined
Jan 29, 2011
Messages
11,265
Reaction score
2,921
Gender
Undisclosed
Political Leaning
Liberal
Actually that's not what it means in this case. Gallup does not poll seasonal workers (kids in the workforce) like BLS does, so their number is a more accurate reflection of the adult population's employment status. Go to the BLS website and look at Table A for the month of July. It says 7.4% seasonally adjusted, and then keep reading each line item above and below that. Notice that in July alone, 37,000 people gave up and took themselves out of the workforce. There are other interesting facts in that table that are not reflected in the official BLS number. If Gallup's number didn't matter, they wouldn't take the time to do a daily poll.

Umm ... the BLS also tracks 8 years and up. That's just not the official unemployment rate. Factor out 16-7 year olds, and the unemployment rate drops, according to BLS data.

At any rate, like it or not, the BLS and not Gallup is the official source for these stats.

Like it or not, Gallup does not use the same standards as the BLS and there's no data to indicate that Gallup is more accurate.

Like it or not, Gallup's non-seasonal data includes college students leaving their summer jobs to return to school.

Like it or not, even Gallup admits their data cannot be compared to the BLS's data.

Like it or not, no matter how much y'all fish for the highest unemployment rate figures you can find, the official unemployment rate is 7.4%. 5% lower than when Obama started.
 

Heebie Jeebie

DP Veteran
Joined
Jan 8, 2013
Messages
5,016
Reaction score
1,290
Gender
Undisclosed
Political Leaning
Undisclosed
Didn't businesses get another full year extension for this? I would not expect them to lower hours a year and a half in advance.

Businesses with less than 50 employees didn't get any extension. There are about 4.5 million of them.
 

Slyfox696

DP Veteran
Joined
Mar 8, 2013
Messages
14,688
Reaction score
11,884
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Moderate
Again, a difference not worthy of note. But Gallup's upward trend to almost 9% in just the last three weeks is alarming, especially because this is not a poll with a history of wild swings due to statistical anomalies.
Just looking on the Gallup page at their unemployment history, and it's clear to see this statement is unequivocally false. For example, on August 3, 2012 the Gallup unemployment rate was 8.2%. Three months later, on November 3, 2012, it was 7%. Three months after that, February 2, 2013, it was 7.8%. The Gallup poll very much seems to have wild swings.

How many people want to take bets on whether or not Breitbart reported the 8.2% to 7% drop right before the election?


Gallup Daily: U.S. Employment
 

cpwill

DP Veteran
Joined
Dec 20, 2009
Messages
72,673
Reaction score
37,803
Location
USofA
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Conservative
Just looking on the Gallup page at their unemployment history, and it's clear to see this statement is unequivocally false. For example, on August 3, 2012 the Gallup unemployment rate was 8.2%. Three months later, on November 3, 2012, it was 7%. Three months after that, February 2, 2013, it was 7.8%. The Gallup poll very much seems to have wild swings.

How many people want to take bets on whether or not Breitbart reported the 8.2% to 7% drop right before the election?


Gallup Daily: U.S. Employment

Good Catch. It also, in light of the earlier discussion on how Gallup does not seasonally adjust, makes sense.
 

Painter

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 17, 2013
Messages
583
Reaction score
314
Location
Florida
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Independent
Businesses with less than 50 employees didn't get any extension. There are about 4.5 million of them.

Yes, but with under 50 employees we do not have to do anything at all in the way of insurance. There is no effect at all.
I honestly wish we did. If my competitors had to provide medical coverage, I would gladly do it to.
I average 3 employees, sometimes reaching 8 and sometimes 0, throughout the years.
 

Heebie Jeebie

DP Veteran
Joined
Jan 8, 2013
Messages
5,016
Reaction score
1,290
Gender
Undisclosed
Political Leaning
Undisclosed
Yes, but with under 50 employees we do not have to do anything at all in the way of insurance. There is no effect at all.

The company I work for has 18 employees and offers health insurance. We renew September 1. The rates just went up 40%
 

TheNextEra

Banned
DP Veteran
Joined
Jun 14, 2006
Messages
16,575
Reaction score
6,767
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Libertarian - Left
Your sample size is not even worth mentioning

90% of the jobs being created are part time jobs. People graduating college with massive student loans aren't getting the careers they used to thanks to Obama and the Democrats

College graduates weren't getting the careers they used to under Bush either. This isn't the fault of ONE president, but the continuing destructive policies of mulitple Dem AND Rep administrations.
 

Painter

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 17, 2013
Messages
583
Reaction score
314
Location
Florida
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Independent
The company I work for has 18 employees and offers health insurance. We renew September 1. The rates just went up 40%

That's great, but it is because they choose to and are in a line of work where business allows them to, not because of Obamacare. Not because the government requires it.
As for the rate increase, there is just no way for either side to present any well rounded honest argument in either direction at this point in time. Many states are experiencing massive reductions, while others are reporting increases and there is just no way to nail down and define the exact cause.
 

Heebie Jeebie

DP Veteran
Joined
Jan 8, 2013
Messages
5,016
Reaction score
1,290
Gender
Undisclosed
Political Leaning
Undisclosed
That's great, but it is because they choose to and are in a line of work where business allows them to, not because of Obamacare. Not because the government requires it.
As for the rate increase, there is just no way for either side to present any well rounded honest argument in either direction at this point in time. Many states are experiencing massive reductions, while others are reporting increases and there is just no way to nail down and define the exact cause.

It is offered as a benefit. It costs the company a lot of money to offer it but we have always had this benefit.

The rate increase is due to Obamacare. Our State is one that wants Obamacare to succeed so they are doing everything they can to keep the costs of the plans offered on the State exchange low, at least initially, so they have basically given the green light to insurance companies to make up their profits on private insurance plans offered by small businesses. If the state did not want Obamacare to succeed then I suspect any increase would have been much lower.
 

Jetboogieman

Somewhere in Babylon
Moderator
DP Veteran
Joined
Jan 12, 2010
Messages
33,648
Reaction score
39,144
Location
Somewhere in Babylon...
Gender
Undisclosed
Political Leaning
Undisclosed
Gotta love it.

During the last election Gallup had Obama up quite a bit, conservatives scoffed...

"They're wrong"

"they're ****"

"they're biased"

"Obama is paying pollsters"

And now subsequently they've found something from Gallup to attack Obama and are running with it and it can do no wrong.

America, stop being so obsessed with Polls, they're rubbish no matter what the outcome.
 

Deuce

Outer space potato man
DP Veteran
Joined
Feb 6, 2010
Messages
94,155
Reaction score
46,598
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Undisclosed
Your sample size is not even worth mentioning

90% of the jobs being created are part time jobs. People graduating college with massive student loans aren't getting the careers they used to thanks to Obama and the Democrats

Yes, yes, everything is the fault of the Democrats. Not like Republicans had anything to do with anything. :lamo
 

Bronson

Banned
DP Veteran
Joined
Jun 13, 2012
Messages
3,195
Reaction score
1,192
Gender
Undisclosed
Political Leaning
Libertarian - Right
College graduates weren't getting the careers they used to under Bush either. This isn't the fault of ONE president, but the continuing destructive policies of mulitple Dem AND Rep administrations.

Bush passed Obamacare?

Who knew

Yes, yes, everything is the fault of the Democrats. Not like Republicans had anything to do with anything. :lamo

Which Republican voted for Obamacare?

Obama's economic policies are directly responsible. All of his promises turned out to be lies. According to his own economic team we should be below 6% unemployment right now.
 

Dapper Andy

Banned
Joined
Feb 28, 2013
Messages
913
Reaction score
310
Gender
Undisclosed
Political Leaning
Undisclosed
Didn't businesses get another full year extension for this? I would not expect them to lower hours a year and a half in advance.

That's kind of an odd expectation.

I mean if they hired full time employees today they would just have to pay additional charges for them tomorrow. Why bother?
 

Painter

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 17, 2013
Messages
583
Reaction score
314
Location
Florida
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Independent
That's kind of an odd expectation.

I mean if they hired full time employees today they would just have to pay additional charges for them tomorrow. Why bother?

I can't speak for other types of business, or any big business with 50+ employees for that matter. But for my small business, if I need another employee, I hire one. And if I do not need another employee, I do not hire one.
Taxes and expenses are NEVER the slightest consideration.
I do not hire someone just to have them around, because I like them, or in advance of having a need for them. Either I need more people or I do not.
I've never understood the argument about taxes and such vs hiring.
The same happens in the reverse too... If my taxes are cut I will simply have more money, but I am not going to hire an additional employee just to sit around and talk to me. Either I have work for them or I don't. And If I do have work for them, they will be making me money regardless of what my taxes and expenses are, because my competitors will have those same expenses.
I will not argue that it is this way for all business. But it certainly is for mine.
 

Bronson

Banned
DP Veteran
Joined
Jun 13, 2012
Messages
3,195
Reaction score
1,192
Gender
Undisclosed
Political Leaning
Libertarian - Right
I can't speak for other types of business, or any big business with 50+ employees for that matter. But for my small business, if I need another employee, I hire one. And if I do not need another employee, I do not hire one.
Taxes and expenses are NEVER the slightest consideration.
I do not hire someone just to have them around, because I like them, or in advance of having a need for them. Either I need more people or I do not.
I've never understood the argument about taxes and such vs hiring.
The same happens in the reverse too... If my taxes are cut I will simply have more money, but I am not going to hire an additional employee just to sit around and talk to me. Either I have work for them or I don't. And If I do have work for them, they will be making me money regardless of what my taxes and expenses are, because my competitors will have those same expenses.
I will not argue that it is this way for all business. But it certainly is for mine.

What kind of business is it?

What's the name of your business? Where are you located?
 

Dapper Andy

Banned
Joined
Feb 28, 2013
Messages
913
Reaction score
310
Gender
Undisclosed
Political Leaning
Undisclosed
I can't speak for other types of business, or any big business with 50+ employees for that matter. But for my small business, if I need another employee, I hire one. And if I do not need another employee, I do not hire one.

Many of these businesses did hire. They just hired part time employees.

Others just stretched the employees they had.

Taxes and expenses are NEVER the slightest consideration.
I do not hire someone just to have them around, because I like them, or in advance of having a need for them. Either I need more people or I do not.
I've never understood the argument about taxes and such vs hiring.
The same happens in the reverse too... If my taxes are cut I will simply have more money, but I am not going to hire an additional employee just to sit around and talk to me. Either I have work for them or I don't. And If I do have work for them, they will be making me money regardless of what my taxes and expenses are, because my competitors will have those same expenses.
I will not argue that it is this way for all business. But it certainly is for mine.

Yeah but we both know that's B.S. You would be out of business almost immediately if you suddenly had to compensate your employees considerably more with no way of recouping that expense.
 

Painter

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 17, 2013
Messages
583
Reaction score
314
Location
Florida
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Independent
What kind of business is it?

What's the name of your business? Where are you located?

I am a Commercial Painting Contractor in the state of Florida.
And I hire based on whether or not I have things to paint. If I need another painter I will hire one regardless of what the government does. And if I do not, then I will not.
 
Top Bottom