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Gaddafi will win and Obama will Lose- Pratical politics and Middle East Drama

Libya is Egypt's "red-headed" stepchild. This whole Qadhaffi thing is sideshow. In Egypt he is viewed as somewhat of a bad joke. The US must not lose focus of the changes occurring in Egypt. It would be a huge mistake for the US to intervene militarily in Libya because the "new" Egypt would see this as an opportunistic move by the US.

The relationship Egypt has with Libya is similar to the one we have with Mexico. Mexico is often volatile and has had plenty of internal bloodletting. Mexico has also had it’s share of Qadhaffi-like thugs. However, we would be quite miffed if say China, were to intervene in Mexican affairs. The Monroe Doctrine has never quite died out in the American mindset. Egypt has a similar doctrine the Middle East. Most Arab nations still look to the “land of the pharos’s” for their rubber stamp.

Obama is in a real fix. If he does nothing (present situation) he will be thrashed by the media. If he decides to use the military in any form (no fly zones etc...), then he will fuel the flames of Islamic fundamentalism in Egypt, thereby risking any chance of a positive relationship with Egypt's new regime.

Additionally, I predict that Qadhaffi will hold onto power with or without US intervention. He's a little like Castro with his nine lives, and I think he's only on his fourth.

With caucuses just around the corner, the last thing Obama needs is a Jimmy Carter style Iran hostage situation on his hands. In sum, We need to stay out of this one. In the post-cold war era, Libya does not hold the strategic value it once did.
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