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Friedman sees the future, and its China, not the US

j brown's body

"A Soros-backed animal"
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"Michele Gelfand, a Stanford University expert on negotiating, said: “Trump’s defenders argue that his unpredictability keeps opponents off balance. But great negotiators know that trust, not chaos, is what gets lasting results. Trump’s win-lose approach to deal making is a dangerous game.” She added, “If he continues to recklessly treat allies as adversaries and negotiations as battlegrounds, America risks not just bad deals but a world where we have no one left to deal with.”"

Thoughts?
 
I read that this morning. It's scary.
 
I would agree that Trump's second term is likely to be among the greatest gifts that China could ever hope for from America since Nixon, Carter and later Clinton fully normalized trade with the country.

Fortunately China's demographic crisis and declining population is still a ticking time bomb that they have no foreseeable solution to.
 
Surrealistik said:
Fortunately China's demographic crisis and declining population is still a ticking time bomb that they have no foreseeable solution to.
Click to expand...

Having a lot of people is actually what moves them forward so well. As the article states...

"Each year, the country produces some 3.5 million STEM graduates, about equal the number of graduates from associate, bachelor’s, master’s and Ph.D. programs in all disciplines in the United States.

When you have that many STEM graduates, you can throw more talent at any problem than anyone else.

...

There are 1.4 billion people there. That means that in China, when you are a one-in-a-million talent, there are 1,400 other people just like you.

...

Just as important, Chinese vocational schools graduate tens of thousands of electricians, welders, carpenters, mechanics and plumbers every year, so when someone has an idea for a new product and wants to throw up a factory, it can get built really fast. You need a pink polka dot button that can sing the Chinese national anthem backward? Someone here will have it for you by tomorrow. It will also get delivered fast. Over 550 Chinese cities are connected by high-speed rail that makes our Amtrak Acela look like the Pony Express."

China does everything at scale not paralleled anywhere else in the world.

I am guessing India may get there at some point too ... but they are behind.
 
That's great and all, but the fundamental problem facing China is that the only plausible solution to its demographic crisis that will stagnate and then later contract its economy within the next couple of decades (if not sooner) is immigration, and that is likely to be a hard sell between the over-reaching authoritarian govt, a distasteful police state, racist/nationalist zeitgeist and environmental degradation within the country, particularly when they are faced with ongoing net emigration that remains stubborn and ongoing despite the government's best efforts.
 

She is 100% correct and we all know it.

Will MAGA admit it however?
 
Negotiations comes in two flavors. Sometime you work with others, find common ground and synergy, and both capitalize on that. Other times it's like poker, you just want to beat your opponent and take all his/her money. American's relationship with China is both.
 
Now, some female who never owned a business is an expert in negotiating?
 
In general, I agree... However, we will see how the situation develops.

In principle, the United States has already missed the moment when China needed to inflict a strategic defeat. And now the world is on the verge of China's impending external expansion... I wouldn't bet on the USA.
The United States could not cope with Russia and is now frantically trying to establish relations with Putin. So...
 
Paradoxical said:
Now, some female who never owned a business is an expert in negotiating?
Click to expand...
"Michele Gelfand, a Stanford University expert on negotiating

And just out of curiosity, what is YOUR expertise in this area??
 
Watch China take Taiwan in the near future.
 
SNOWFLAKE said:
"Michele Gelfand, a Stanford University expert on negotiating

And just out of curiosity, what is YOUR expertise in this area??
Click to expand...
My entire career was negotiating. Yours?

Theres and old saying that goes,
"Those who can negotiate have successful careers and businesses. Those who can't, teach."
 
The United States couldn't cope with Russia when Obama and Biden played president.

China will continue to expand because people demand cheap game boys and toys. We will get back to Nationalism and America first and scorn China for talking away the jobs of American CITIZENS like we did in the 60s and 70s and there were many fine union jobs before illegals took them all.
 
Paradoxical said:
My entire career was negotiating. Yours?

Theres and old saying that goes,
"Those who can negotiate have successful careers and businesses. Those who can't, teach."
Click to expand...
Yeah, we have all read about all the careers and businesses you have been successful at.
Did ya know, I was a rocket scientist and a brain surgeon before retiring.
This is the internet, so if I say I was so and so, it must be true. Wouldn't you agree?
Besides you kind of gave away the reason why you are so upset with Michele when you said................
Paradoxical said:
Now, some female
Click to expand...
WOW, that is a dead give away. I love females. They aren't just "some" females to me.
 
Friedman is way overboard on China.

That Huawei plant that is heavily subsidized by their government uses a lot of tech stolen from the US and Taiwan. "Sanctions" don't mean anything if you're actually committing espionage to steal trade secrets.

They are just as bad as Russia when it comes to trying to sow discord in the US via social media and manipulating people.

They don't want a partnership with the US, everything they've done has been to replace the US. They are a dictatorship. A dictatorship that caused a massive demographic issue for themselves with a very brutal one child policy. A dictatorship that had a housing problem a lot worse than ours during the subprime time because of massive government malinvestment. We don't even know the full extent of it because of how secretive they are.

They still want to take Taiwan. They still work with both Russia and Iran to destabilize the globe. They steal tech, protect their markets, and then flood foreign markets with cheap subsidized goods. They haven't changed, they are just stealing and implementing our cutting edge tech rather than older tech.

I agree with Trumps tariffs on China and agree that with his rhetoric they are ripping us off. It's all of the stuff against our allies that pisses me off. Why are you ****ing over our allies and our relationship with them when China is the issue.
 
Look, my friend. YOU are the one who brought up what I did. I don't say that here because I don't trust any of the liberals here, as I see many of you in the same vein as those who burn Tesla's because media has trained liberals to hate a man because they want you to. In any event, it matters not what I did or who I am. All that matters is the truth. Otherwise, you are using the age-old ploy of debating from authority, as if your position is "true" because some academic, scientist, doctor, judge, pries say it is.

If I told the board I was an attorney who negotiated 10,000 cases and won all of them and even it that was true, the liberals here wauled scoff at it because nothing will ever shake most of them out of their media indoctrination of hatred and fear.
 
SNOWFLAKE said:
Watch China take Taiwan in the near future.
Click to expand...
Taiwan has its own offensive missiles that will bomb Shanghai and Beijing in the north, Wuhan and other centers in the middle and the 7 Gorges Dam in the SE that will flood massively in an area equal to Missouri and Tennessee to the Carolinas and New Orleans and equal to Florida. A couple of hundred million people will die which will set the Chinese people who do not want war against their CCP idiot rulers.

The days and time of the CCP simply "taking" Taiwan and in a cakewalk besides are done and gone. Blurting this out as if the PLA could do it before breakfast is flippant and vacuous. PLA has always been against an attack if you don't know, which you don't know. PLA generals and admirals are Party political hacks who run commercial corporations for profit and who can't ever execute any such military amphibious and air operation.
 
CCP debt to GDP ratio is 303%.

Uncontrollable deflation has arrested GDP growth with real growth having gone from 9.6% when Xi Jinping gained full power in 2013 to the present 2% to 4% at best. Xi is a dogmatic political Maoist in opposition to Deng Xiao Ping who focused on the economics we saw during the CCP's 00 years and unmatched since. Never to be matched again -- or even approached. The CCP economy will never surpass the USA economy or even come close any more.

The CCP command mercantile economy is based on trade which is why Trump put tariffs on 'em during his first term that drove foreign capital out of China at $1 Trillion annually for several years. Biden kept Trump's tariffs and now of course Trump is hitting the CCP Bois in Beijing with more and new tariffs.

The CCP urban middle class consists of 600 million while the rest of the population remains in the countryside raising pigs and chickens and growing rice. CCP has to import food to include lots from the USA because its arable land has been reduced to 8% for 1.4 bn people the majority of whom remain as Mao's peasants which is exactly how Xi needs and wants it. No political party can make 1.4 bn people middle class. It would need to control the world's natural resources which isn't ever going to be accepted globally.

CCP RIP.
 
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