French Presidential election 2022: Le Pen closes the gap in opinion polls

[Tender Branson]

Apr 02, 2022, 11:20 AM

In a recent update on French polls, President Emmanuel Macron continues to remain the favorite with far-right candidate Le Pen inching closer to securing the second position.

French Presidential election 2022: Le Pen closes the gap in opinion polls

In a recent update on French polls, President Emmanuel Macron continues to remain the favorite with far-right candidate Le Pen inching closer to securing the second position.

www.wionews.com

LePen has changed her strategy since 2017: a more moderate tone and more grassroots campaigning - instead of railing against immigrants and the EU and what not.

It seems to pay off, because this is the new Elabe poll from today:

https://elabe.fr/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/les-francais-et-lelection-presidentielle-2022.pdf

While she’s only 2nd in the first round of voting (28.5% for Macron, 22% for LePen) - she’s creeping closer and closer to Macron in the runoff polling:

53% Macron
47% LePen

A few weeks ago, it was 61-39. And in 2017, it was 66-34 in the election.

In fact, LePen has NEVER polled 47% in a runoff poll until the last few days … this could be much closer than expected.

 

[Tender Branson]

More on the runoff polling:

53% Macron (Liberal, incumbent)
47% LePen (Far-right)

LePen has never polled so high before, meaning she has the momentum.

What I find most shocking:

While first-round Macron and LePen voters also back their candidate with 98/99% in the runoff (no surprise), the behavior of voters from the other candidates is interesting.

Far-right candidate Zemmourˋs voters are backing LePen with 80%, 10% Macron, 10% abstain.

The fringe leftist candidates go Macron by bigger margins, but most abstain in the runoff.

But the weirdest results come from leftist Jean-Luc Melenchonˋs voters.

Melenchon would get a sizeable 15% in round one.

His candidacy is similar to Bernie Sanders and his followers are leftist working class voters.

But they break EVEN in the runoff: 25% for Macron, 25% for LePen and half wouldn’t vote.

Macron is a union-hating, „small working man“-hating douchebag neo-liberal, so these working class leftist voters might come back to haunt him, like Sanders voters did with Hillary, either with a few voting for Trump, or by not voting for her.

 

[Tender Branson]

Macron, as the anti-workingclass President he is, has also announced he will raise the pension entry age by a few years.

This is another reason, besides inflation, why French middle class voters will give LePen a 2nd look …

 

[DarkWizard12]

I thought Zemmour was the right wing demogogue of france. No longer?

 

[Torus34]

The apparent hollowing-out of the middle seems to be continuing in a number of what are loosely grouped as democratic countries. The search for a common thread is interesting.

Regards, stay safe 'n well.

 

[Tender Branson]

I thought Zemmour was the right wing demogogue of france. No longer?

I am not sure why his polling numbers have fallen from 15-20% to around 10% right now, probably because voters go with the more familiar far-right candidate (LePen) than with an inexperienced loudmouth.

 

[Tender Branson]

2 more polls out today show Marine LePen at 47% in the runoff, Macron at 53%.

Both polls represent an all-time high for LePen.

 

[j brown's body]

I thought Zemmour was the right wing demogogue of france. No longer?

He's too obvious. Nazi Lady uses nuance.

 

[DarkWizard12]

He's too obvious. Nazi Lady uses nuance.

"only the dog hear's the whistle"

 

[Tender Branson]

The alarm 🚨 bells 🔔 are going off in the Macron headquarters today, as a new poll shows Le Pen surging to 48.5% in the runoff.

Her highest level ever recorded and within the margin of error in statistical polling.

A couple weeks ago, polls showed Macron up 61-39 in the runoff.

http://harris-interactive.fr/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2022/04/FH7UQ71JHDQQ9.pdf

 

[Tender Branson]

Le Pen creeps closer and closer even in the 1st round of voting.

A new poll today has Macron at 26.5% and her at 23% - a deficit of just 3.5 points - the lowest ever.

 

[Carjosse]

Le Pen creeps closer and closer even in the 1st round of voting.

A new poll today has Macron at 26.5% and her at 23% - a deficit of just 3.5 points - the lowest ever.

From what I can see it seems like the far-right coming back home to Le Pen from Zemmour.