French Legislative elections thread

[joluoto]

So France will now gear up for Le3gislative elections, and Macron might not have it as easy as during the Presidential elections, then people who didn't like him voted for him because the liked le Pen even less.

France: Melenchon forms anti-Macron alliance with the Greens​

So Melenchon's far left party has teamed up with the Greens to challenge Macron. Melenchon wants to keep pressing for the end of the 5th Republic and return to Parliamentarism. He also a NATO critic so he might turn up that rhetoric.

Meanwhile the Republicans are torn and unsure what their role is. They are in between Macron's Centrism and Le Pen's far right nationalism, and don't know where to turn.

France’s conservatives torn over Macron’s ‘siren call’ before parliamentary polls​

One thing to remember is this election is a two round Majority election. This mean one seat contituencies, which also means most votes doesn't mean most seats.

 

[joluoto]

French left agrees in principle on broad alliance to take on Macron​

Agreeing to something in principle is not the same as in practice. The French left would be a force in French politics if it wasn't so hopelessly divided. Unless they agree to not actually field candidates against each other they'll once again lose.

 

[joluoto]

Historic coalition marks changing of the guard for French left ahead of legislative elections​

When the French left has unified before they have made stuff happen. It's a rare occurance, there is alot of bad blood between the different French left wing groups. For the Socialists it's a step away from the Social Liberal era of Hollande back towards, well, Socialism. With Melenchon as the lead things will get interesting. If the left had been united in the Presidential election, they would have been in the second round. However Legislative elections are a different beast, a first-past-the-post (kind of) situation where winning constituencies is the name of the game. In France there is a two round process where the two main candidates face of against each other in a second round if neither has more than 50% of the vote. In many cases if a left wing candidate ends up against a Macronist or a Republican in the second round, the odds are against them.

 

[Juin]

Historic coalition marks changing of the guard for French left ahead of legislative elections​

When the French left has unified before they have made stuff happen. It's a rare occurance, there is alot of bad blood between the different French left wing groups. For the Socialists it's a step away from the Social Liberal era of Hollande back towards, well, Socialism. With Melenchon as the lead things will get interesting. If the left had been united in the Presidential election, they would have been in the second round. However Legislative elections are a different beast, a first-past-the-post (kind of) situation where winning constituencies is the name of the game. In France there is a two round process where the two main candidates face of against each other in a second round if neither has more than 50% of the vote. In many cases if a left wing candidate ends up against a Macronist or a Republican in the second round, the odds are against them.

Thanks for the updates on the situation with the French left. I had no clue they are that fractured.

 

[joluoto]

First round is today.

Polls open in French parliamentary elections' first round​

 

[joluoto]

Macron coalition, leftwing bloc neck and neck in first round of French elections​

So the Left are able to tie the Macronists in the first round. A strong first round from Melenchon's new alliance was expected. The second round will be more merciless. In most races Leftist candidates will face against a Macronist or Republican candidate, which will get the support from the voters of the defeated either Macronist or Republican candidates in constituency as well as perhaps a few far right voters who bothers to show up. While the left wing candidates really don't have much chance of getting much additional votes from backers of defeated candidates.

 

[joluoto]

Majority, hung parliament or ‘cohabitation’: Macron’s prospects uncertain after tight election​

Much uncertainity, but Macron's party has an edge. Voters of eliminated candidates (or of candidates that drops out) are more likely to side with Macronists in the second round than with the Left, and in constituencies where the Left candidate's main opponent is a Republican, Macronist voters are more likely to vote Republican than Left in round 2. However it is possible that Macron does not get his majority, but rather there is a hung legislative. This would force compromises, and the most likely scenario is that Macron takes a step to the right to work with the Republicans.

 

[joluoto]

ROUND 2!!!!!!!!!

BREAKING: Macron does not have a majority!

France elections: Macron set to lose parliamentary majority — projection​

Most seats: Yes. A majority: No. Most likely he has to move to the right and work with the Republicans, to secure parliamentary majority. For the Left this was a large undertaking, they had no real chance of winning, but they managed to gain enough seats to deny a majority for Macron. They can build on this.

Also the Far Right increased their seats making Marine le Pen a stronger force in the legislative.

French legislative elections live: Macron’s bloc short of absolute majority, leftist coalition second, large gains for far right​

 

[gbg3]

ROUND 2!!!!!!!!!

BREAKING: Macron does not have a majority!

France elections: Macron set to lose parliamentary majority — projection​

Most seats: Yes. A majority: No. Most likely he has to move to the right and work with the Republicans, to secure parliamentary majority. For the Left this was a large undertaking, they had no real chance of winning, but they managed to gain enough seats to deny a majority for Macron. They can build on this.

Also the Far Right increased their seats making Marine le Pen a stronger force in the legislative.

French legislative elections live: Macron’s bloc short of absolute majority, leftist coalition second, large gains for far right​

Very interesting and the news I'm reading makes it sound questionable whether the Republicans will want to work with Macron to secure/form that majority. Sounds like large gains for the far left and the far right.

 

[vesper]

Don't give a flying fig about France's concerns while I am watching the U.S. being destroyed

 

[Chagos]

Don't give a flying fig about France's concerns while I am watching the U.S. being destroyed

So?

Staying away from a forum not designed to fit you interests might be a way out.

Or did you just feel the need to say something?

 

[joluoto]

Don't give a flying fig about France's concerns while I am watching the U.S. being destroyed

So don't come to the global politics forums then.