French election: Far-right Le Pen closes in on Macron ahead of vote

Tender Branson · Apr 8, 2022

By Lucy Williamson
BBC Paris correspondent

The least a president might expect, when juggling a war in Europe with an election at home, is a bounce in the polls. But Emmanuel Macron has discovered that all the energy he spent dealing with Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine has been of little help in France's unpredictable vote. "Nothing is impossible," President Macron has warned, as polls suggest his far-right rival is closer than ever before to winning the presidency. A month ago, Marine Le Pen was trailing President Macron by 10 points and fighting for a place in the second round against him. Now she's seen as the clear favourite to challenge him for the presidency after Sunday's first round. If she does make it through to the 24 April run-off, opinion polls suggest for the first time that a Le Pen victory is within the margin of error. For this, the National Rally leader can thank two men once seen as dangerous for her campaign: her far-right rival, Eric Zemmour, and Russian President Vladimir Putin, now an international pariah. "I would say that [Zemmour's] campaign was destroyed by Ukraine," said Gilles Paris, an election specialist for French daily Le Monde. "His pro-Russian attitude was a burden, while Marine Le Pen was smart enough to pivot to a more moderate point of view. She was ready to accept refugees [immediately], while it took two days for Zemmour to understand that these refugees were well accepted in France."

Ms Le Pen has since picked up a good part of Eric Zemmour's votes.

President Macron lost most of his "war bounce" two weeks ago, and has also faced criticism from EU partner, Poland, for talking so regularly to Russia's president.

His frustration burst through when he was asked about it on the campaign trail this week, surrounded by crowds in the Brittany village of Spézet.

"I'm not the one who is sympathetic to Putin," he snapped. "I'm not the one who looks for funding from Russia. That's other candidates."

Vladimir Putin publicly backed Marine Le Pen during the last presidential race here, and her National Rally party is currently repaying a loan from a Russian bank. But she has deflected discussion of the war in Ukraine by focusing on her core campaign topic: rising prices at home.

And as the war has added to price pressures on petrol and basic goods, the Le Pen electoral strategy is continuing to pay off.

Melina, a care assistant who came to watch President Macron's rally in Spézet this week, said the economic situation had changed her politics.

"There are a lot of French people here who work but are forced to sleep in their cars because they cannot afford an apartment and nobody helps them," she said. "It's a disgrace. I used to vote for the left but I could very well vote on the right this time."

At a boulangerie down the road, Sophie was serving a long queue of lunch customers.

She voted for Macron five years ago, because she was "scared" to vote for Marine Le Pen. But she's not scared any more: Sophie is so sure Marine Le Pen will win, she has made bets with her customers on the outcome of the election.

"She has evolved," Sophie told me. "She learns from her mistakes. She's more human, and we understand her when she talks."

France's far-right leader has worked hard over the past five years to win votes like Sophie's, softening her rhetoric and presenting a more moderate, "electable" image.

She still promises strict limits on immigration, a "French-first" policy when it comes to housing, jobs and benefits, and a ban on the Muslim headscarf in public places. But she has also dropped her plan to leave the EU, and has emphasised her personal life as a single mother who breeds kittens.

It has helped win over some traditional right-wing voters who once saw her as too extreme, and her party tainted with the toxic attitudes of its past.

But here again, said Gilles Paris, it was Eric Zemmour's influence on French politics that has given her a boost: "He was a kind of a 'useful fool' [for Marine Le Pen] because he was able to bulldoze the fence that separated the majority of the right from the far-right."

As a former journalist for a right-wing broadsheet, Eric Zemmour was acceptable to voters on the traditional right, despite policies that were often far to the right of Le Pen's.

Once traditional right-wing voters had backed him, the theory goes, it was easier for them to switch their support to Le Pen.

Marine Le Pen has certainly gained from her far-right rival's demise. Less than two months ago, they were neck and neck; now polls put them 15 points apart.

French election: Far-right Le Pen closes in on Macron ahead of vote

Emmanuel Macron is now looking over his shoulder before the first round of the presidential race.

www.bbc.com

There is now already one poll which has her up 50.5% to 49.5% in the runoff, and even most others have her at 47-49% already ...

highroller · Apr 8, 2022

Meh, She might make it out of the first round but she’s going to get stomped in a second just like last time

Tender Branson · Apr 8, 2022

highroller said:
Meh, She might make it out of the first round but she’s going to get stomped in a second just like last time

The polls were pretty accurate in 2017 though:

A few days before the 1st round in 2017, Marine Le Pen polled 35-36% for the runoff and eventually got 34%.

But now, she's polling 47-50% and will get ... [x] %.

It should be noted that she has never polled more than 40% in the 2017 election, but now frequently polls 47-50%.

The polls cannot be off that much.

Phys251 · Apr 8, 2022

highroller said:
Meh, She might make it out of the first round but she’s going to get stomped in a second just like last time

Let's hope so, or France is ****ed.

Nomad4Ever · Apr 8, 2022

Just so everyone is aware, Le Pen really is far right. She has made statements about the "de-Muslimifacation of France" and also wants France to leave the EU and NATO. Her father (whom used to be head of her National Front party and who she has tried to distance herself from) has been charged six times to racism, incitement to racial violence, and holocaust denial.

bomberfox · Apr 8, 2022

Whu do we let these people still run?

highroller · Apr 8, 2022

bomberfox said:
Whu do we let these people still run?

Because democracy is important. As someone once said, "Democracy gives you all the tools you need to destroy it."

Tender Branson · Apr 8, 2022

The situation with 2 days to go until the first round of voting looks very similar to the first round of the Austrian presidential election in 2016.

In early April 2016, Green-Liberal frontrunner Alexander Van der Bellen was around 25-30% in the polls.

Norbert Hofer, from the far-right FPÖ, was polling 20-25% with a slightly upward trend like Le Pen now.

A bunch of independent and systemic party candidates were polling further behind, also very similar in both countries.

But Norbert Hofer outperformed the polls by 10 points and won 35% of the vote in round one.

In the runoff, he got 49.7% vs. 50.3% for Van der Bellen.

Van der Bellen will run for re-election in the fall, but is more or less guaranteed a win.

Centrist · Apr 8, 2022

Ok so populism in Hungary at a rate that was not expected.

Populism in France with Macron barely holding.

Israeli's coalition is off (failed negotiations and leaked story).

Romania's far right is at 20 %.

Extremists are happy while Zelensky criticize the mainstream politicians in the west.

The madman Putin does not even need to take care of Ukraine. With the diplomatic skills of the president of Ukraine and the economic hardship that will hit the average person in the west, get ready for some Donnie Trumps in the West.

Then problem will solved for the Russians, no NATO and no EU.

and for saying this you are considered a Russian propagandistic.

In time of crisis REALITY BEATS IDEALISM.

bomberfox · Apr 8, 2022

highroller said:
Because democracy is important. As someone once said, "Democracy gives you all the tools you need to destroy it."

Germany is still a democracy last time i checked. I dunno nothing seems to have any permanence anymore.

Nomad4Ever · Apr 8, 2022

bomberfox said:
Why do we let these people still run?

European politics are just built different. Her father was in the National Front party until 2019 when Maire Le Pen kicked him out, and he has been accused personally of committing war crimes (torture), been charged 6 times for racism/holocaust denial, and was suspended from the European parliament for physically assaulting a socialist parliament member. And that entire time he was the head of the party until very recently.

Pretty crazy stuff.

bomberfox · Apr 8, 2022

Nomad4Ever said:
European politics are just built different. Her father was in the National Front party until 2019 when Maire Le Pen kicked him out, and he has been accused personally of committing war crimes (torture), been charged 6 times for racism/holocaust denial, and was suspended from the European parliament for physically assaulting a socialist parliament member. And that entire time he was the head of the party until very recently.

Pretty crazy stuff.

We let people like that run here.

Tender Branson · Apr 8, 2022

I always expected that the damage of the pandemic would not be immediately visible, but only later - which is now.

During the Covid pandemic, people went with mainstream parties, but now the psychological effects are more clear and lasting and just like after WW1 when people turned to elect fascists (or they rose themselves), people NOW are also turning to fascists too while real fascists in power are more emboldened and start wars or rig elections even more maniacally.

Nomad4Ever · Apr 8, 2022

bomberfox said:
We let people like that run here.

He didn't just run, he was elected to lower level government positions. Like he was a sitting member of several different bodies over his time.

Felis Leo · Apr 8, 2022

bomberfox said:
Whu do we let these people still run?

It is the ultimate flaw with democracy. That is, the cruel, the stupid, and the venal all get a vote and their votes count for just as much as those of the kind, the thoughtful and the generous.

bomberfox · Apr 8, 2022

Tender Branson said:
I always expected that the damage of the pandemic would not be immediately visible, but only later - which is now.

During the Covid pandemic, people went with mainstream parties, but now the psychological effects are more clear and lasting and just like after WW1 when people turned to elect fascists (or they rose themselves), people NOW are also turning to fascists too while real fascists in power are more emboldened and start wars or rig elections even more maniacally.

I think this was happening before the pandemic.

bomberfox · Apr 8, 2022

Felis Leo said:
That's the ultimate flaw with democracy. The cruel, the stupid, and the venal all get a vote and their vote counts for just as much as those of the kind, the thoughtful and the generous.

I guess. It’d be nice to see some light at the end of the tunnel.

Nomad4Ever · Apr 8, 2022

bomberfox said:
I guess. It’d be nice to see some light at the end of the tunnel.

Don't OD on Doomer pills yet buddy. The left more organized than it's been in decades.

Rogue Valley · Apr 8, 2022

Marine LePen has been known to borrow campaign money from Russian banks.

highroller · Apr 8, 2022

bomberfox said:
Germany is still a democracy last time i checked. I dunno nothing seems to have any permanence anymore.

Only cost 100,000,000 lives

bomberfox · Apr 8, 2022

highroller said:
Only cost 100,000,000 lives

Ummm………. Im saying Germany banned the nazi party and last i checked it is still a democracy.
Moar hyperbolic shit without reading context

aociswundumho · Apr 8, 2022

Centrist · Apr 8, 2022

LePen will cause issues for NATO stability. If populism wins in France it will be a disaster for the alliance. I can tell you a lot of Eastern European media is nervous for France.

Some people that like to criticize France, I won't mention who they are, should keep their mouth shut before this election. It is crucial for Macron to win this election for the stability of Europe.

ElChupacabra · Apr 8, 2022

Nomad4Ever said:
Just so everyone is aware, Le Pen really is far right. She has made statements about the "de-Muslimifacation of France" and also wants France to leave the EU and NATO. Her father (whom used to be head of her National Front party and who she has tried to distance herself from) has been charged six times to racism, incitement to racial violence, and holocaust denial.

What she's done effectively this go around is market herself in a way that focuses less on that far right angle.

RealityNow · Apr 8, 2022

Far Right White People, are desperate to try and keep "White Nationalism Alive".... That's the whole point of so many white people in so many places supporting "Right Wing Ideology". Even the dire poor, who still have not figured out, white nationalist agenda was designed to keep them poor so they could be used by the Wealthy Right Wing White People, as their guardians.

They don't care about , dignity, integrity, honesty, fairness, justice, honor and respect of anything... They only care about trying to keep alive their delusions of "white skin superiority"... and the more they do so, the more their inner sense of fears of their own SELF MADE and SELF CREATED inferiority FEARS comes out, to show their desperation to think their skin makes them more than they are.

Their should realize skin and the lust of money is not what life is all about, as they will live until they die, and they won't get more than 24hrs a day, and they can't take a darn thing with them from this earth.

Besides, in Today's World no non white people will ever in this day and time, allow them to engage the barbaric savagery upon and against Non-White Skin People, as these Right Wing White People did in the past.

Of the Centuries that White People had means to influence so much, what we see around the world is conflicts, economic poverty, uncontrolled greed and every kind of crime and malice that one can think of, and abuses of every thing that education and technology has ever presented. No one can name a Continent on This Planet that Right Wing White people have not gone to and engaged genocide by as many means as they could conceive to engage and promote, all while trying to hoard anything and everything. Time finds each one, that embraces that autocratic tyranny, have come to the same end, "death" because no one lives forever and the malice they do, only damages so much.

Life is not so hard, people can only eat so much, they can only be in one room of a house at a time, they can only drive one car at a time, and whether they got $10 of $10 million... Those principle things won't change. There's more people now with Million Dollar Homes, struggling trying to keep up and image, chasing the desperation to compare themselves with others in the community, and when the money gets strained, the relation falls apart, or one is trying to end the others life, or do something criminal to keep up the image. It's "All Vanity". and Vanity has seen many people wear themselves out, result with mental break down, and some stressed their whole lives trying to keep up with that imagery standard.

People might want to stop and think about "what really matters"... in Living.

Many people who are bigoted and bias and even some racist, find out when they get to the geriatric states of life, they often need the same people they discriminated against to feed, them and help try to keep their body hygiene from festering into infections.

Every Right Wing Ideology Promoter and Supporter,
always tries to "Control People", and Always Promote Authoritarian Agenda.

Right Wing Wealthy, right this day, are angry because they want to maintain a Republican Party as their Lobbyist to keep them from Respecting and Abiding by Regulatory Governing Principles.

French election: Far-right Le Pen closes in on Macron ahead of vote

Tender Branson