For Whoever is interested in the Oil market.

[Luckyone]

This is the comment that I put together today and that will be in my newsletter tomorrow.

Since I decided to share it with everyone (subscriber to my service or not), I thought I might as well put it on here and let those that are playing (or following) the Oil market, get the information as well.

OIL bounced back this past week (generated a green weekly close) after two red weekly closes in a row occurred and a 28.4% correction from the intraweek high to the previous week’s low happened. Oil did close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside (on an intraweek basis) above last week’s high at 116.94 will be seen this week. Oil is facing an important and possibly pivotal week given that the monthly close will occur on Thursday and the weekly close (which is also important) will occur on Friday. For the monthly close, the 113.93 is very important as it was the rally high monthly close that was seen in February 2011, which occurred after Oil made a new all-time monthly closing high at 140.00 in 2008 and then proceeded to drop down to 41.68 in the 3 years after that. A close on Thursday above 113.93 will mean that the 11-year old strong resistance at that price has been broken, which in turn would suggest that the all-time monthly closing high at 140.00 would be targeted. What makes 113.93 so important to the weekly chart (on Friday) as well, is that 113.93 was also the previous high weekly close resistance which did get broken 4 weeks ago with the 115.68 high weekly close that the bulls were unable to confirm, given that Oil closed at 109.33 the following week. With Oil having closed on Friday at 112.58, a red weekly close this coming Friday would mean the 115.68 weekly close has been tested successfully (necessary requirement for the chart to suggest that the rally has come to an end) and that would give strong reasons for profit taking to occur and new selling interest to be seen. By the same token, a close on Thursday at 113.93, following by the same close on Friday, would still leave the door open for both bulls and bears, to be decided in April. Believe it or not, the probabilities do favor this latter scenario occurring (close on Thursday and Friday at 113.93 or close to that). What makes the week so important is that a close above 113.93 on both Thursday “and” Friday would be a bullish statement, especially if Oil closes above 115.68 on Friday. This is what the chart traders, computers and algorithms are looking at and that will help them decide, given that it is unlikely that any new fundamental news will come out this week.

 

[diz]

I’ve spent a lot of time around oil markets.

I can’t think of why chartism would explain much of what goes on in them.

It’s going to be driven more by current supply demand balance and expected future supply demand balance.

Demand for oil is pretty inelastic. Supply for oil is inelastic in the short run, unless you’re an OPEC member with surplus capacity, but moderately responsive the longer run. Less so these days due to the inability of non-OPEC producers to access capital.

Of course, geopolitics can have fairly significant impacts on supply as well. In the near term oil price is obviously going to depend a lot on what happens with Russian oil. The US etc boycotting Russia doesn’t matter if the barrels make it into the market anyway because China and India (or whomever else) buy them. If they get backed all the way back into Russia the world supply will be very tight and prices will rise dramatically. Some expectation of that is priced in already. If it turns out to be less impactful on supply than expected prices will come down, more impactful prices will go up. All other things being equal, which they won’t necessarily be in geopolitics.

 

[Luckyone]

I’ve spent a lot of time around oil markets.

I can’t think of why chartism would explain much of what goes on in them.

It’s going to be driven more by current supply demand balance and expected future supply demand balance.

Demand for oil is pretty inelastic. Supply for oil is inelastic in the short run, unless you’re an OPEC member with surplus capacity, but moderately responsive the longer run. Less so these days due to the inability of non-OPEC producers to access capital.

Of course, geopolitics can have fairly significant impacts on supply as well. In the near term oil price is obviously going to depend a lot on what happens with Russian oil. The US etc boycotting Russia doesn’t matter if the barrels make it into the market anyway because China and India (or whomever else) buy them. If they get backed all the way back into Russia the world supply will be very tight and prices will rise dramatically. Some expectation of that is priced in already. If it turns out to be less impactful on supply than expected prices will come down, more impactful prices will go up. All other things being equal, which they won’t necessarily be in geopolitics.

Actually, you are about as wrong as you can be. I have been giving chart evaluations on the oil market for the past 4 years and most of the time, the charts have given a clear view of what is happening..............almost to a level that is incredible.

I am a member of the #1 Oil board that I know of, which is filled with some of the most knowledge people "in the industry" and every single time when I put a comment, I get anywhere between 35 and 50 likes. I have built a reputation there for being right most of the time.

 

[diz]

Actually, you are about as wrong as you can be. I have been giving chart evaluations on the oil market for the past 4 years and most of the time, the charts have given a clear view of what is happening..............almost to a level that is incredible.

I am a member of the #1 Oil board that I know of, which is filled with some of the most knowledge people "in the industry" and every single time when I put a comment, I get anywhere between 35 and 50 likes. I have built a reputation there for being right most of the time.

OK, well fair enough. If you’re the guy who’s always right about oil prices I better be nice to you so you'll take me out on your mega-yacht.

 

[Luckyone]

OK, well fair enough. If you’re the guy who’s always right about oil prices I better be nice to you so you'll take me out on your mega-yacht.

I never said I was "always" right.

By the way, it is not ME that is making predictions. It is the charts that make predictions. I just have a lot of experience (47 years) in reading charts and I am very good at deciphering what they are saying.

You need to understand that the people-in-the-know-and-that-play-the-big-money are showing what they are doing in the charts.

Neither you nor I can a make a price move one way or the others. Nonetheless, the big money (especially when working in conjunction with computers, algorithms and others with big money) can make anything move.

Here is a very simple explanation.

Oil has been dropping for weeks. It has dropped 25% in value over the past 4 weeks and suddenly it turns around at X price and rallies 10% without any news coming out (hey, someone with money is buying there, no?). Oil goes up a bit more and then drops back close to the same X price and again bounces up another 10% in value.

What does that tell you? It says, that at X price there are a LOT of people with big money and that know the market well.

I come along without any knowledge of fundamentals but simply know how to read the charts and I say to you (and everyone else), at X price there is support. Do I know all that much? No, but I do know how to read charts.

Support and resistance levels do break as everything is based on the fundamental picture. Nonetheless, fundamentals change only a few times during the year and yet these markets are played "daily". If the fundamentals do change, then the charts go out the window but that happens only a few times a year. The rest of the year, it is all about computers, algorithms and big chart traders that know how to read charts and they buy at price X and sell at price Y. I can read that very very well.

If I am wrong 4 times a year but right 20 times a year, I am ahead of the game and respected by those in the game. In addition and as far as the traders are concerned. This is a not a game of being right or wrong, it is a game of making more money than is lost.

It is not rocket science. It is gained knowledge of reading hundreds of thousands (if not millions) of charts over the 47 years I have been doing it and that I now know how to read them successfully.

I am not rich but I have been economically successful in trading the markets by using charts.................and I do not mean once or twice, but consistently over decades.

 

[diz]

I never said I was "always" right.

By the way, it is not ME that is making predictions. It is the charts that make predictions. I just have a lot of experience (47 years) in reading charts and I am very good at deciphering what they are saying.

You need to understand that the people-in-the-know-and-that-play-the-big-money are showing what they are doing in the charts.

Neither you nor I can a make a price move one way or the others. Nonetheless, the big money (especially when working in conjunction with computers, algorithms and others with big money) can make anything move.

Here is a very simple explanation.

Oil has been dropping for weeks. It has dropped 25% in value over the past 4 weeks and suddenly it turns around at X price and rallies 10% without any news coming out (hey, someone with money is buying there, no?). Oil goes up a bit more and then drops back close to the same X price and again bounces up another 10% in value.

What does that tell you? It says, that at X price there are a LOT of people with big money and that know the market well.

I come along without any knowledge of fundamentals but simply know how to read the charts and I say to you (and everyone else), at X price there is support. Do I know all that much? No, but I do know how to read charts.

Support and resistance levels do break as everything is based on the fundamental picture. Nonetheless, fundamentals change only a few times during the year and yet these markets are played "daily". If the fundamentals do change, then the charts go out the window but that happens only a few times a year. The rest of the year, it is all about computers, algorithms and big chart traders that know how to read charts and they buy at price X and sell at price Y. I can read that very very well.

If I am wrong 4 times a year but right 20 times a year, I am ahead of the game and respected by those in the game. In addition and as far as the traders are concerned. This is a not a game of being right or wrong, it is a game of making more money than is lost.

It is not rocket science. It is gained knowledge of reading hundreds of thousands (if not millions) of charts over the 47 years I have been doing it and that I now know how to read them successfully.

I am not rich but I have been economically successful in trading the markets by using charts.................and I do not mean once or twice, but consistently over decades.

if you’re right more than half the time you should be a billionaire by now. You just need to cover transaction costs, which these days are pretty negligible with all the ETFs.

Do you know what they would say about Chartism in a decent investment course?

 

[Luckyone]

if you’re right more than half the time you should be a billionaire by now. You just need to cover transaction costs, which these days are pretty negligible with all the ETFs.

Do you know what they would say about Chartism in a decent investment course?

You have no understanding about how things work.

The profits made per 100 shares are usually in the $400 to $800 level when trading short-term and the losses are usually about $100-$200 per 100 shares. If you are trading a $60 dollar a share company, you need to have $6000 in the account. As such, if you start with a $25000 account and trade 50 times during one year, your profits will be somewhere in the area of around $15,000. If you have a $250,000 account, you will be making around $140,000 per year. None of this is going to make you a billionaire. In addition, not every year is going to be a going to be the same. Some years will be negative. I have been offering my service for 14 years now and I show 11 profitable years and 3 losing years.

In addition, I restarted my account (after my expensive divorce) with only $5,000 in 2005 and I now have over $300,000 and have paid most of my living bills with the account.

Billionaire? No, I am not but going from $5000 to over $300,000 and paying most of my monthly bills with the account is pretty damn good, is it not?

 

[diz]

You have no understanding about how things work.

The profits made per 100 shares are usually in the $400 to $800 level when trading short-term and the losses are usually about $100-$200 per 100 shares. If you are trading a $60 dollar a share company, you need to have $6000 in the account. As such, if you start with a $25000 account and trade 50 times during one year, your profits will be somewhere in the area of around $15,000. If you have a $250,000 account, you will be making around $140,000 per year. None of this is going to make you a billionaire. In addition, not every year is going to be a going to be the same. Some years will be negative. I have been offering my service for 14 years now and I show 11 profitable years and 3 losing years.

In addition, I restarted my account (after my expensive divorce) with only $5,000 in 2005 and I now have over $300,000 and have paid most of my living bills with the account.

Billionaire? No, I am not but going from $5000 to over $300,000 and paying most of my monthly bills with the account is pretty damn good, is it not?

Well, I may be confused by all the time i’ve spent around professional crude traders who would kill to be right about commodity prices as often as you claim you are.

But I’ll let you in on the fact there are leveraged crude oil ETFs where you can make easy money if you invite me to your yacht after you clean up.

Leveraged Crude Oil ETF List

Click to see more information on Leveraged Crude Oil ETFs including historical performance, dividends, holdings, expense ratios, technicals and more.

etfdb.com

 

[Razoo]

oil is not forever .......

 

[Luckyone]

Well, I may be confused by all the time i’ve spent around professional crude traders who would kill to be right about commodity prices as often as you claim you are.

But I’ll let you in on the fact there are leveraged crude oil ETFs where you can make easy money if you invite me to your yacht after you clean up.

Leveraged Crude Oil ETF List

Click to see more information on Leveraged Crude Oil ETFs including historical performance, dividends, holdings, expense ratios, technicals and more.

etfdb.com

For your information, I am a member of investor village energy board, which is the #1 board in the U.S. for people trading energy products (mainly Oil and Gas) and some of the people there are some of the top people in that market.

I have been there on that board for 3 years and every time I put a comment, I get between 35 and 50 likes. I wonder why?