For Trump to win, his campaign manager thinks he has to carry a state where he’s down 7 points

[Trippy Trekker]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/10/16/trump-win-his-campaign-manager-thinks-he-has-carry-state-where-hes-down-7-points/

All paths besides a Rigged USSC to Trump winning re-election continue to chart increasingly unlikely. This bodes well for the Anti-Trumper Movement!

Can you create a realistic EV Map that results in a Trump win?

Blank 2020 Electoral Map - 270toWin

2020 electoral map that starts at 0-0, with all states shown as undecided.

www.270towin.com

 

[Patriotic Voter]

I don't know how to embed a map here without saving a screenshot on my computer. Louisiana is the one state I can't even guess because Utah has always been dark red with no chance of turning purple before this year. Nobody ever talks about the possibility of Utah, where most people are Mormons, politically moving left. So I colored it red. That is not the case in Arizona, where all signs point to Democrat Mark Kelly winning Republican Martha McSally's seat, so I colored it blue. My tossups are Texas, Ohio, North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida.

 

[Trippy Trekker]

I don't know how to embed a map here without saving a screenshot on my computer, but if Louisiana goes Democrat I have Joe Biden getting 314 electoral votes. I made Utah red and Arizona blue. My tossups are Ohio, Texas, North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida.

Transposed from a previous Trippy T thread:

Some Basic Information:

In 2016 Trump won 30 states; Hillary won 20, plus DC. Two states allow for an EV split- NE and ME. Trump took all 5 in NE and Hillary took 3 out of 4 in ME. Our courts sorted out the 7 Faithless Electors who tried to break their pledge.

Trump won: TX(38), FL(29), PA(20), OH(18), MI(16), GA(16), NC(15), AZ(11), IN(11), TN(11), WI(10), SC(9), AL(9), LA(8), KY(8), OK(7), ARK(6), IA(6), UT(6), KS(6), MS(6), WV(5), NE(5), ID(4), MT(3), ND(3), SD(3), WY(3), AK(3) and 1 out of 4 in ME.

Hillary won: CA(55), NY(29), IL(20), NJ(14), VA(13), WA(12), MA(11), MN(10), MD(10), CO(9), OR(7), CT(7), NV(6), NM(5), NH(4), HI(4), RI(4), VT(3), DE(3), DC(3) and 3 out of 4 in ME.

 

[Trippy Trekker]

Trump advisers dish that campaign manager Bill Stepien seems convinced they're not going to win

Dismal polls and poor debate performances are predictably not playing well within President Trump's campaign — but campaign manager Bill Stepien is reportedly not doing much to change that.
Stepien's weekly pep talks encourage staffers to look away from "perennially horrible public polls" and find ways they can "win the week," staffers tell Axios. But behind the scenes, Stepien seems "darkly pessimistic," discouraging other staffers who talk to him, they tell Axios.

Trump advisers dish that campaign manager Bill Stepien seems convinced they're not going to win

Dismal polls and poor debate performances are predictably not playing well within President Trump's campaign — but campaign manager Bill Stepien is reportedly not doing much to change that.Stepien's weekly pep talks encourage staffers to look away from "perennially horrible public polls" and...

news.yahoo.com

 

[ReubenSherr]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/10/16/trump-win-his-campaign-manager-thinks-he-has-carry-state-where-hes-down-7-points/

All paths besides a Rigged USSC to Trump winning re-election continue to chart increasingly unlikely. This bodes well for the Anti-Trumper Movement!

Can you create a realistic EV Map that results in a Trump win?

Blank 2020 Electoral Map - 270toWin

2020 electoral map that starts at 0-0, with all states shown as undecided.

www.270towin.com

This exact headline would have been true as well 4 years ago on this date.

In mid-October 2016, Trump was down 9 in Pennsylvania, and 11 in Michigan. His current numbers are better than that, and slightly tightening.

Especially in PA where he is now down 4.4.

 

[Patriotic Voter]

The article cites 538, so we should look at that website.

2020 Election Forecast

Latest forecast of the 2020 presidential election between President Donald Trump and Joe Biden by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

 

[Trippy Trekker]

This exact headline would have been true as well 4 years ago on this date.

In mid-October 2016, Trump was down 9 in Pennsylvania, and 11 in Michigan. His current numbers are better than that, and slightly tightening.

Especially in PA where he is now down 4.4.

I rate the gist of your post as mostly true! In fact, oddsmakers on average give Trump a better chance of winning in 2020 than they did in 2016. Reference one of my related posts from 2016.

Election Day ... finally! Odds remained unchanged overnight. Trump at 3/1 (+300) and Hillary at 2/9 (-450).

I live and vote in Florida. If Number Crunchers reach consensus early in the night and call Florida for Hillary, then the Trump Dream dissipates and Donald and his losers can continue to live in make-believe Trumpland!

I glimpsed at a betting site a view minutes ago showing Biden a -180 Favorite and Trump a +150 Underdog.

If your 'College Budget' gives you a bit of low dollar latitude, would you consider a friendly low dollar wager? Assuming reasonably conclusive results on who won during November, Loser (either you or me) makes a donation to DP before December 1, 2020.

If Trump wins, I donate $20. If Biden wins, you donate $10.

 

[beefheart]

This exact headline would have been true as well 4 years ago on this date.

In mid-October 2016, Trump was down 9 in Pennsylvania, and 11 in Michigan. His current numbers are better than that, and slightly tightening.

Especially in PA where he is now down 4.4.

Cherry picking

 

[exoplanet]

It's pretty easy with the snake chart on 538. Basically, it's GA, NC, AZ, FL, and PA. He is down in all of those states, but it's pretty close to the margin of error. I wouldn't bet on Trump, but this is a one time event. This isn't best out of seven or something - he only has to get lucky once.

538 says Biden has a 87% chance to win right now. To put that in perspective, if a doctor told me I only had an 87% chance of surviving an operation, I'd make damn sure my will was in order.