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FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver Gives Clinton An 80 Percent Chance Of Winning The Presi

imyoda

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FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver Gives Clinton An 80 Percent Chance Of Winning The Presidency
FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver Gives Clinton An 80 Percent Chance Of Winning The Presidency

Silver correctly called 48 of 50 states in 2008 and accurately called all 50 states in the 2012 election.

According to Silver’s forecast model, Hillary Clinton has an 80 percent chance of becoming the next president. “Trump faces longer odds and a bigger polling deficit than John McCain and Mitt Romney did at the same point in their respective races,” Silver wrote on Wednesday.
According to the new forecast, Clinton is favored to carry all of the so-called swing states. She also has a better than 50 percent chance of winning Arizona, something not done by a Democrat since 1996…..
As of today, Silver predicts that Clinton would carry upwards of 350 electoral votes compared to Trump’s 183 and win the popular vote by almost eight points.


SEE:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
Donald Trump Has A 20 Percent Chance Of Becoming President | FiveThirtyEight


One must bow to Silver’s 538 calls on the election. He predicted the winner in 2008 and 2012……. But most impressively his predictions of percent of votes of the candidates was spot on……..a better finding than what the best poll measured……..
 

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Re: FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver Gives Clinton An 80 Percent Chance Of Winning The P

FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver Gives Clinton An 80 Percent Chance Of Winning The Presidency
FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver Gives Clinton An 80 Percent Chance Of Winning The Presidency

Silver correctly called 48 of 50 states in 2008 and accurately called all 50 states in the 2012 election.

According to Silver’s forecast model, Hillary Clinton has an 80 percent chance of becoming the next president. “Trump faces longer odds and a bigger polling deficit than John McCain and Mitt Romney did at the same point in their respective races,” Silver wrote on Wednesday.
According to the new forecast, Clinton is favored to carry all of the so-called swing states. She also has a better than 50 percent chance of winning Arizona, something not done by a Democrat since 1996…..
As of today, Silver predicts that Clinton would carry upwards of 350 electoral votes compared to Trump’s 183 and win the popular vote by almost eight points.


SEE:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
Donald Trump Has A 20 Percent Chance Of Becoming President | FiveThirtyEight


One must bow to Silver’s 538 calls on the election. He predicted the winner in 2008 and 2012……. But most impressively his predictions of percent of votes of the candidates was spot on……..a better finding than what the best poll measured……..

Nate Silver was pretty good at calling elections... until this year. He gave Trump a 2% chance during the primary... Yeah. Not taking Silver's advise on this election.
 

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Re: FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver Gives Clinton An 80 Percent Chance Of Winning The P

Nate Silver was pretty good at calling elections... until this year. He gave Trump a 2% chance during the primary... Yeah. Not taking Silver's advise on this election.

Well Nate had lots of company in seeing it that way...........This is an election year beyond belief...........and I expect this is just the beginning........I can't wait to see the "chase".............
 

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Re: FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver Gives Clinton An 80 Percent Chance Of Winning The P

Nate Silver was pretty good at calling elections... until this year. He gave Trump a 2% chance during the primary... Yeah.
Not taking Silver's advise on this election.[
/QUOTE]



Every voter has a free choice in the USA.

If you want to follow Trump off of the cliff,get after it.But don't say that you weren't warned.

:lol:
 

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Re: FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver Gives Clinton An 80 Percent Chance Of Winning The P

FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver Gives Clinton An 80 Percent Chance Of Winning The Presidency
FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver Gives Clinton An 80 Percent Chance Of Winning The Presidency

Silver correctly called 48 of 50 states in 2008 and accurately called all 50 states in the 2012 election.

According to Silver’s forecast model, Hillary Clinton has an 80 percent chance of becoming the next president. “Trump faces longer odds and a bigger polling deficit than John McCain and Mitt Romney did at the same point in their respective races,” Silver wrote on Wednesday.
According to the new forecast, Clinton is favored to carry all of the so-called swing states. She also has a better than 50 percent chance of winning Arizona, something not done by a Democrat since 1996…..
As of today, Silver predicts that Clinton would carry upwards of 350 electoral votes compared to Trump’s 183 and win the popular vote by almost eight points.


SEE:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
Donald Trump Has A 20 Percent Chance Of Becoming President | FiveThirtyEight


One must bow to Silver’s 538 calls on the election. He predicted the winner in 2008 and 2012……. But most impressively his predictions of percent of votes of the candidates was spot on……..a better finding than what the best poll measured……..

He may be right, BUTT its a bit early to tell IMO.
 

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Re: FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver Gives Clinton An 80 Percent Chance Of Winning The P

Nate Silver was pretty good at calling elections... until this year. He gave Trump a 2% chance during the primary... Yeah.

Every voter has a free choice in the USA.

If you want to follow Trump off of the cliff,get after it.But don't say that you weren't warned.

:lol:

This is such a bizarre and illogical response to what I said. I never said I supported Trump, in fact, my entire tenure on this forum has been a rather firm demonstration of my distaste for Trump. Since when does pointing out that Nate Silver continues to irrationally justify his positions for why Clinton is obviously going to win equate to voting for and supporting Trump? If those were logical justifications I'd be... well, not happy, because I despise Hillary as well, but it'd be a coherent, justifiable statement. But if he's basically just guessing based upon what he wants the outcome to be, that's not helpful. The entire RNC underestimated Trump. Let's hope the DNC and their mouth pieces don't do the same.
 
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FieldTheorist

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Re: FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver Gives Clinton An 80 Percent Chance Of Winning The P

Well Nate had lots of company in seeing it that way...........This is an election year beyond belief...........and I expect this is just the beginning........I can't wait to see the "chase".............

And that sentiment was shared by no one who had their finger even halfway on the pulse of the Republican party. Personally, I myself knew it was Trump's primary after the first few debates, and numerous media outlets like the Young Turks, Secular Talk, and etc made the prediction that Trump stood the most likely chance of being the most voted for primary candidate last year... and they and I were all correct. I don't remember how late in the game Silver changed his mind (Hint: He started reading polls and conservative opinion polls) when he "suddenly" realized he was getting it totally wrong. It was pretty embarrassing, and he came out and did a mea culpa for becoming a pundit (where "my gut tells me" is an acceptable form of evidence) and not a data analyst. Now he's turning around and becoming a pundit again, rather than a data analyst.
 

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Re: FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver Gives Clinton An 80 Percent Chance Of Winning The P

And that sentiment was shared by no one who had their finger even halfway on the pulse of the Republican party. Personally, I myself knew it was Trump's primary after the first few debates, and numerous media outlets like the Young Turks, Secular Talk, and etc made the prediction that Trump stood the most likely chance of being the most voted for primary candidate last year... and they and I were all correct. I don't remember how late in the game Silver changed his mind (Hint: He started reading polls and conservative opinion polls) when he "suddenly" realized he was getting it totally wrong. It was pretty embarrassing, and he came out and did a mea culpa for becoming a pundit (where "my gut tells me" is an acceptable form of evidence) and not a data analyst. Now he's turning around and becoming a pundit again, rather than a data analyst.

Silver uses a proprietary method of statistical analysis which is time sensitive………..
As things change so does his projection……….
 

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Re: FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver Gives Clinton An 80 Percent Chance Of Winning The P

Silver uses a proprietary method of statistical analysis which is time sensitive………..
As things change so does his projection……….

Yes, and that proprietary, special blend has done such a great job at determining Trump's success so far, no?
 

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Re: FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver Gives Clinton An 80 Percent Chance Of Winning The P

Yes, and that proprietary, special blend has done such a great job at determining Trump's success so far, no?

What has 538 say about Tump?
 

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Re: FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver Gives Clinton An 80 Percent Chance Of Winning The P

This is such a bizarre and illogical response to what I said.
I never said I supported Trump,
in fact, my entire tenure on this forum has been a rather firm demonstration of my distaste for Trump. Since when does pointing out that Nate Silver continues to irrationally justify his positions for why Clinton is obviously going to win equate to voting for and supporting Trump? If those were logical justifications I'd be... well, not happy, because I despise Hillary as well, but it'd be a coherent, justifiable statement. But if he's basically just guessing based upon what he wants the outcome to be, that's not helpful. The entire RNC underestimated Trump. Let's hope the DNC and their mouth pieces don't do the same.



And I never said that you did!

What I said was: If you want to support him,get after it.It's all up to you.
 

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Re: FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver Gives Clinton An 80 Percent Chance Of Winning The P

Nate Silver was pretty good at calling elections... until this year. He gave Trump a 2% chance during the primary... Yeah. Not taking Silver's advise on this election.

You know who else knew that Nate Silver screwed up big time? Nate silver.

I'm only 1/3 of the way through this so far) great article by Silver on what he did wrong, although I do like this small bit of snark:

If you really expected the Republican front-runner to be bragging about the size of his anatomy in a debate, or to be spending his first week as the presumptive nominee feuding with the Republican speaker of the House and embroiled in a controversy over a tweet about a taco salad, then more power to you.

How I Acted Like A Pundit And Screwed Up On Donald Trump | FiveThirtyEight
 

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Re: FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver Gives Clinton An 80 Percent Chance Of Winning The P

Like Card is saying, he admitted to acting like a pundit, literally the title of one of his articles.
As we get closer and closer to the election I expect only one real change in his predictions: smaller confidence intervals.
 

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Re: FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver Gives Clinton An 80 Percent Chance Of Winning The P

You know who else knew that Nate Silver screwed up big time? Nate silver.

I'm only 1/3 of the way through this so far) great article by Silver on what he did wrong, although I do like this small bit of snark:



How I Acted Like A Pundit And Screwed Up On Donald Trump | FiveThirtyEight

For someone who's renounced punditry, that's a pretty pundit-esque response to their own **** up. Nate Silver has liked cozying up to the Big People and likes sitting around the Big People Table. The only problem is that he's absorbed that culture's preconceptions into his data analysis. He may have admitted to getting Trump totally wrong, but he also got Sanders campaign pretty wildly wrong along the way, too. His probability on Sanders was also spuriously low (including for many states) for someone who nearly got the nomination, and his predictions on the states' results left something to be desired, too.

The success of Sanders and Trump was hardly surprising given the public opinion polls of politicians, the surveys and data on income inequality, public opinion polls on a majority of discussed political topics vs the way politicians discuss them, etc. The country started moving leftward in 2006, has continued to move leftward, and now it's 10 years later. This is transparent to anyone who's read these polls --and that ought to have included Nate Silver.
 
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