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>> 1) First of all, I had access to the National Weather Service discussions, as does anyone else who goes to http://www.nhc.noaa.gov . Days ago, the NWS forecasted this storm to go to a cat 5, and then to weaken to a 4 or possibly a 3. I repeat, this was days ago.
I just reviewed the advisory archive and find no evidence of this. No one expected it to hit as a Cat 5 at least not into Houston but a Cat 4 was a real probility until just before it hit and during the inital evacuations.
But here from Dr. Jeff Masters from WeatherUnderground on the 22nd
"
Rita's eyewall replacement cycle is almost complete, and we may see some slight strengthening Friday morning. By Friday evening, slight to moderate weakening may occur until landfall Saturday. This will occur as a result of 10 knots of shear on her south side from an upper-level high pressure system, and from passage over ocean waters with less heat content. By landfall time on Saturday afternoon, I still expect that Rita will be a Category 3 or 4 hurricane, but still carry to the coast a storm surge characteristic of a much stronger hurricane. A Category 4 or 5 level storm surge is likely along a 40 - 60 miles stretch of coast to the right of where the storm makes landfall on Saturday. Storm surge heights will peak at 15 - 20 feet in some bays, and bring the ocean inland up to 50 miles from the coast. Large sections of I-10 between Houston and Beaumont could be inundated, and the flood waters may reach the cities of Beaumont, Orange, and Lake Charles."
I just reviewed the advisory archive and find no evidence of this. No one expected it to hit as a Cat 5 at least not into Houston but a Cat 4 was a real probility until just before it hit and during the inital evacuations.
But here from Dr. Jeff Masters from WeatherUnderground on the 22nd
"
Rita's eyewall replacement cycle is almost complete, and we may see some slight strengthening Friday morning. By Friday evening, slight to moderate weakening may occur until landfall Saturday. This will occur as a result of 10 knots of shear on her south side from an upper-level high pressure system, and from passage over ocean waters with less heat content. By landfall time on Saturday afternoon, I still expect that Rita will be a Category 3 or 4 hurricane, but still carry to the coast a storm surge characteristic of a much stronger hurricane. A Category 4 or 5 level storm surge is likely along a 40 - 60 miles stretch of coast to the right of where the storm makes landfall on Saturday. Storm surge heights will peak at 15 - 20 feet in some bays, and bring the ocean inland up to 50 miles from the coast. Large sections of I-10 between Houston and Beaumont could be inundated, and the flood waters may reach the cities of Beaumont, Orange, and Lake Charles."