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Fiasco in Texas

Stinger

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>> 1) First of all, I had access to the National Weather Service discussions, as does anyone else who goes to http://www.nhc.noaa.gov . Days ago, the NWS forecasted this storm to go to a cat 5, and then to weaken to a 4 or possibly a 3. I repeat, this was days ago.

I just reviewed the advisory archive and find no evidence of this. No one expected it to hit as a Cat 5 at least not into Houston but a Cat 4 was a real probility until just before it hit and during the inital evacuations.

But here from Dr. Jeff Masters from WeatherUnderground on the 22nd

"
Rita's eyewall replacement cycle is almost complete, and we may see some slight strengthening Friday morning. By Friday evening, slight to moderate weakening may occur until landfall Saturday. This will occur as a result of 10 knots of shear on her south side from an upper-level high pressure system, and from passage over ocean waters with less heat content. By landfall time on Saturday afternoon, I still expect that Rita will be a Category 3 or 4 hurricane, but still carry to the coast a storm surge characteristic of a much stronger hurricane. A Category 4 or 5 level storm surge is likely along a 40 - 60 miles stretch of coast to the right of where the storm makes landfall on Saturday. Storm surge heights will peak at 15 - 20 feet in some bays, and bring the ocean inland up to 50 miles from the coast. Large sections of I-10 between Houston and Beaumont could be inundated, and the flood waters may reach the cities of Beaumont, Orange, and Lake Charles."
 

danarhea

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Stinger said:
>> 1) First of all, I had access to the National Weather Service discussions, as does anyone else who goes to http://www.nhc.noaa.gov . Days ago, the NWS forecasted this storm to go to a cat 5, and then to weaken to a 4 or possibly a 3. I repeat, this was days ago.

I just reviewed the advisory archive and find no evidence of this. No one expected it to hit as a Cat 5 at least not into Houston but a Cat 4 was a real probility until just before it hit and during the inital evacuations.

But here from Dr. Jeff Masters from WeatherUnderground on the 22nd

"
Rita's eyewall replacement cycle is almost complete, and we may see some slight strengthening Friday morning. By Friday evening, slight to moderate weakening may occur until landfall Saturday. This will occur as a result of 10 knots of shear on her south side from an upper-level high pressure system, and from passage over ocean waters with less heat content. By landfall time on Saturday afternoon, I still expect that Rita will be a Category 3 or 4 hurricane, but still carry to the coast a storm surge characteristic of a much stronger hurricane. A Category 4 or 5 level storm surge is likely along a 40 - 60 miles stretch of coast to the right of where the storm makes landfall on Saturday. Storm surge heights will peak at 15 - 20 feet in some bays, and bring the ocean inland up to 50 miles from the coast. Large sections of I-10 between Houston and Beaumont could be inundated, and the flood waters may reach the cities of Beaumont, Orange, and Lake Charles."

From the National Weather Service archives:

HOWEVER...IT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE IF RITA BECAME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE IN THE NEXT 24 HR BEFORE WEAKENING SOMEWHAT DUE TO A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE OR THE LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WEST OF THE LOOP CURRENT.

This is a part of the information I used. There is more in the archives, if you care to look, regarding wind shears, water temperature, and other data. If the storm had hit Houston, there is no way this would be cat 5 at landfall for the reasons given. As I already stated in my first post, I based my actions on sound science.

Also, in your own post, the info says between Houston and Beaumont, not IN Houston. There was the possibility of cat 5 in Beaumont because that location is closer to the loop current. In any case, Houston was safe.
 
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Stinger

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danarhea said:
From the National Weather Service archives:



This is a part of the information I used. There is more in the archives, if you care to look, regarding wind shears, water temperature, and other data. If the storm had hit Houston, there is no way this would be cat 5 at landfall for the reasons given. As I already stated in my first post, I based my actions on sound science.

Also, in your own post, the info says between Houston and Beaumont, not IN Houston. There was the possibility of cat 5 in Beaumont because that location is closer to the loop current. In any case, Houston was safe.

Down to a Cat 4, in finally came in at a strong Cat 3, but that was not known until after it would have been too late to call for an evacuation. No one ever said Houston would get hit with Cat 5 but had it hit between Galveston and Beaumont as a Cat 4 and then headed up to Houston the devestation and flooding would have been disasterous. Just look at what in did in south Louisiana. I think you really misjudge this storm.

Again from Dr. Jeff Masters

Rita's eyewall replacement cycle is almost complete, and we may see some slight strengthening Friday morning. By Friday evening, slight to moderate weakening may occur until landfall Saturday. This will occur as a result of 10 knots of shear on her south side from an upper-level high pressure system, and from passage over ocean waters with less heat content. By landfall time on Saturday afternoon, I still expect that Rita will be a Category 3 or 4 hurricane, but still carry to the coast a storm surge characteristic of a much stronger hurricane. A Category 4 or 5 level storm surge is likely along a 40 - 60 miles stretch of coast to the right of where the storm makes landfall on Saturday. Storm surge heights will peak at 15 - 20 feet in some bays, and bring the ocean inland up to 50 miles from the coast. Large sections of I-10 between Houston and Beaumont could be inundated, and the flood waters may reach the cities of Beaumont, Orange, and Lake Charles."

It could have hit just west of Houston just as easily as it hit the state line.
 

danarhea

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Stinger said:
Down to a Cat 4, in finally came in at a strong Cat 3, but that was not known until after it would have been too late to call for an evacuation. No one ever said Houston would get hit with Cat 5 but had it hit between Galveston and Beaumont as a Cat 4 and then headed up to Houston the devestation and flooding would have been disasterous. Just look at what in did in south Louisiana. I think you really misjudge this storm.

Again from Dr. Jeff Masters

Rita's eyewall replacement cycle is almost complete, and we may see some slight strengthening Friday morning. By Friday evening, slight to moderate weakening may occur until landfall Saturday. This will occur as a result of 10 knots of shear on her south side from an upper-level high pressure system, and from passage over ocean waters with less heat content. By landfall time on Saturday afternoon, I still expect that Rita will be a Category 3 or 4 hurricane, but still carry to the coast a storm surge characteristic of a much stronger hurricane. A Category 4 or 5 level storm surge is likely along a 40 - 60 miles stretch of coast to the right of where the storm makes landfall on Saturday. Storm surge heights will peak at 15 - 20 feet in some bays, and bring the ocean inland up to 50 miles from the coast. Large sections of I-10 between Houston and Beaumont could be inundated, and the flood waters may reach the cities of Beaumont, Orange, and Lake Charles."

It could have hit just west of Houston just as easily as it hit the state line.

Doesnt matter. Houston is 50 miles inland from where a storm surge could hit, so a stronger storm surge does not matter. Again, Houston was safe.

So what we are down to is whether Houston would be flattened as the media was telling us. No it wouldnt. From your quote from the weather underground is what I had been saying all along - Hurricane Rita was not going to be a 5 under any circumstance. Large sections of I10 between Houston and Beaumont are not Houston.

What the media was saying was that Houston was going to be flattened, which was absolutely not true. No way that could have happened. But I do find it very interesting that you have engaged me in a game of hair splitting and word games. I am a little confused at this juncture. Just what is your point?
 

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Re: Fiasco in Texas
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stinger
Down to a Cat 4, in finally came in at a strong Cat 3, but that was not known until after it would have been too late to call for an evacuation. No one ever said Houston would get hit with Cat 5 but had it hit between Galveston and Beaumont as a Cat 4 and then headed up to Houston the devestation and flooding would have been disasterous. Just look at what in did in south Louisiana. I think you really misjudge this storm.

Again from Dr. Jeff Masters

Rita's eyewall replacement cycle is almost complete, and we may see some slight strengthening Friday morning. By Friday evening, slight to moderate weakening may occur until landfall Saturday. This will occur as a result of 10 knots of shear on her south side from an upper-level high pressure system, and from passage over ocean waters with less heat content. By landfall time on Saturday afternoon, I still expect that Rita will be a Category 3 or 4 hurricane, but still carry to the coast a storm surge characteristic of a much stronger hurricane. A Category 4 or 5 level storm surge is likely along a 40 - 60 miles stretch of coast to the right of where the storm makes landfall on Saturday. Storm surge heights will peak at 15 - 20 feet in some bays, and bring the ocean inland up to 50 miles from the coast. Large sections of I-10 between Houston and Beaumont could be inundated, and the flood waters may reach the cities of Beaumont, Orange, and Lake Charles."

It could have hit just west of Houston just as easily as it hit the state line.




danarhea said:
Doesnt matter. Houston is 50 miles inland from where a storm surge could hit, so a stronger storm surge does not matter. Again, Houston was safe.

I'm sorry but you are clearly wrong, read again what I posted about it specifically states that 50 miles in the storm surge could still be 15-20 feet. I can go 90 miles north and see where Ivan took off roofs and flatten buildings and it was a Cat 3. Had Rita not made it's last day turn Houston would have suffer major damage.

So what we are down to is whether Houston would be flattened as the media was telling us. No it wouldnt. From your quote from the weather underground is what I had been saying all along - Hurricane Rita was not going to be a 5 under any circumstance. Large sections of I10 between Houston and Beaumont are not Houston.

No one ever said it would be Cat 5 when it hit and the statement only mentioned that as ONE of the major areas of damage.

Hey no sweat off my back. If you want to stay in Houston when a Cat 5 is bearing down even knowing that is will fall to a Cat 4 when it hits land STILL bringin 135+ winds that's your choice. I've lived through these all my life, I know what one of these can do. Go look at the pictures of Lake Charles it's about as far in as Houston.
 
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