• This is a political forum that is non-biased/non-partisan and treats every person's position on topics equally. This debate forum is not aligned to any political party. In today's politics, many ideas are split between and even within all the political parties. Often we find ourselves agreeing on one platform but some topics break our mold. We are here to discuss them in a civil political debate. If this is your first visit to our political forums, be sure to check out the RULES. Registering for debate politics is necessary before posting. Register today to participate - it's free!

Fewer than 1 in 10 Americans show signs of past coronavirus infection, large national study finds

JacksinPA

Supporting Member
DP Veteran
Monthly Donator
Joined
Dec 3, 2017
Messages
26,290
Reaction score
16,771
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Progressive

This suggests millions may still be vulnerable to infection, authors say

Fewer than 1 in 10 Americans showed signs of past infection with the novel coronavirus as of late July, suggesting that most of the country may still be vulnerable to infection, according to one of the largest studies of its kind published Friday in the journal the Lancet.

That proportion is an estimate based on the percentage of dialysis patients whose immune systems produced coronavirus antibodies. It does not indicate exactly how many Americans may be immune to the virus, because not every infected individual develops antibodies. It is also unclear how strong a defense antibodies might confer or for how long. But, combined with similar results from studies by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and other institutions, it’s evident a large majority may not be protected against a disease that has already killed 200,000 Americans.

“We are still in the middle of the fight,” said Eli Rosenberg, a State University of New York at Albany epidemiologist who was not part of the study. “We’re all tired, and we’re all hoping for a vaccine. This shows us how it’s not over here, not even by a long shot.”
==========================================================
'We've only just begun...' - The Carpenters
 
Last edited:

This suggests millions may still be vulnerable to infection, authors say

Fewer than 1 in 10 Americans showed signs of past infection with the novel coronavirus as of late July, suggesting that most of the country may still be vulnerable to infection, according to one of the largest studies of its kind published Friday in the journal the Lancet.

That proportion is an estimate based on the percentage of dialysis patients whose immune systems produced coronavirus antibodies. It does not indicate exactly how many Americans may be immune to the virus, because not every infected individual develops antibodies. It is also unclear how strong a defense antibodies might confer or for how long. But, combined with similar results from studies by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and other institutions, it’s evident a large majority may not be protected against a disease that has already killed 200,000 Americans.

“We are still in the middle of the fight,” said Eli Rosenberg, a State University of New York at Albany epidemiologist who was not part of the study. “We’re all tired, and we’re all hoping for a vaccine. This shows us how it’s not over here, not even by a long shot.”
==========================================================
'We've only just begun...' - The Carpenters
Well this is actually good, I think! I've been recently estimating we might be around 10% Covid exposed, rather than the 2% number indicted by the official 'tested positive' stats. And sure enough, this study says we're pushing 10%! Again, I call this very good news.

Why?

Because
...

... I'm banking on us being around 20% infected by the end of next year, and this study seems to show we are on track. I'm also betting on 10-15% of us having relative natural immunity due to prior other coronavirus exposure, along with another 10-15% of us also receiving the vaccination by next year. By my math, this adds-up to 40-50% of us immune.

That might not be true herd immunity, but it's getting close. It is enough to greatly retard the infection spread, putting us significantly below an R0 of '1' - which is the all important factor. The 'immune' number (50%) gets a little help from those of us highly mitigated too, such as those in nursing homes or the elderly hard sequestered-away as we did with two of our elderly, compromised, family members. I'll estimate these last at an additional 3-5%.

So we may be near 55% or so 'combined immune' or 'hard sequestered' by the end of next year. And that's a good place to be, I think. Hell, we might be even better if the vaccine is better accepted than my first-year estimate of 10-15%!
 
Good news??
maxresdefault.jpg


Sorry Chom, we've already paid a heavy price for that good news.
And the price will be exponentially higher this time next year absent an all hands on deck coordinated and accessible response regimen.
And it was all avoidable.
That makes the price even higher.
 

This suggests millions may still be vulnerable to infection, authors say

Fewer than 1 in 10 Americans showed signs of past infection with the novel coronavirus as of late July, suggesting that most of the country may still be vulnerable to infection, according to one of the largest studies of its kind published Friday in the journal the Lancet.

That proportion is an estimate based on the percentage of dialysis patients whose immune systems produced coronavirus antibodies. It does not indicate exactly how many Americans may be immune to the virus, because not every infected individual develops antibodies. It is also unclear how strong a defense antibodies might confer or for how long. But, combined with similar results from studies by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and other institutions, it’s evident a large majority may not be protected against a disease that has already killed 200,000 Americans.

“We are still in the middle of the fight,” said Eli Rosenberg, a State University of New York at Albany epidemiologist who was not part of the study. “We’re all tired, and we’re all hoping for a vaccine. This shows us how it’s not over here, not even by a long shot.”
==========================================================
'We've only just begun...' - The Carpenters

If 10% have been exposed, that means that 90% have NOT been exposed and people who have NOT been exposed ARE "vulnerable to infection".

Given the reports that an exposure to COVID-19 provides only "transitory immunity" if 10% have been exposed that means that that 10% is also "vulnerable to infection".

What those two facts mean is that the current percentage of the US population that is "vulnerable to infection" is approximately 99.166% (since the people who already have active cases of COVID-19 are NOT "vulnerable to infection".
 
Back
Top Bottom