Fertility rate: 'Jaw-dropping' global crash in children being born

[joko104]

Falling fertility rates mean nearly every country could have shrinking populations by the end of the century. And 23 nations - including Spain and Japan - are expected to see their populations halve by 2100.

Japan's population is projected to fall from a peak of 128 million in 2017 to less than 53 million by the end of the century. Italy is expected to see an equally dramatic population crash from 61 million to 28 million over the same timeframe. They are two of 23 countries - which also include Spain, Portugal, Thailand and South Korea - expected to see their population more than halve. China, currently the most populous nation in the world, is expected to peak at 1.4 billion in four years time before nearly halving to 732 million by 2100. India will take its place.
Fertility rate: 'Jaw-dropping' global crash in children being born - BBC News

This impact will be huge. Notice that African and South American countries are not experiencing huge population decline. It also means that countries with a dramatic decline in birth rate also means aging populations and in some far more elderly than young people.

 

[dead0man]

sheesh, but they've been warning us of "over population" since the 70s. Of course they've also been saying we were going to run out of food and resources too, and yet we have more of both than ever before. It's almost like people who predict doom and gloom are always wrong.

 

[ttwtt78640]

Hmm... is that data being included in the climate change models?

 

[uptower]

Falling fertility rates mean nearly every country could have shrinking populations by the end of the century. And 23 nations - including Spain and Japan - are expected to see their populations halve by 2100.

Japan's population is projected to fall from a peak of 128 million in 2017 to less than 53 million by the end of the century. Italy is expected to see an equally dramatic population crash from 61 million to 28 million over the same timeframe. They are two of 23 countries - which also include Spain, Portugal, Thailand and South Korea - expected to see their population more than halve. China, currently the most populous nation in the world, is expected to peak at 1.4 billion in four years time before nearly halving to 732 million by 2100. India will take its place.
Fertility rate: 'Jaw-dropping' global crash in children being born - BBC News

This impact will be huge. Notice that African and South American countries are not experiencing huge population decline. It also means that countries with a dramatic decline in birth rate also means aging populations and in some far more elderly than young people.

It's been known for about 30-40 years now that rich, developed regions have lower birthrates. Access to reproductive control is also a factor.

 

[Court Jester]

Fertility rates aren't dropping for every demographic.

 

[bluesmoke]

Hence the need for immigration or economic growth is impossible let alone pop growth. Another Trump failure trying to inhibit immigration.

 

[ttwtt78640]

It's been known for about 30-40 years now that rich, developed regions have lower birthrates. Access to reproductive control is also a factor.

Such changes do present problems for programs like Social Security, Medicare and defined benefit public employee pension plans which depend on having enough current workers (aka taxpayers) to support current retirees.

 

[calamity]

Falling fertility rates mean nearly every country could have shrinking populations by the end of the century. And 23 nations - including Spain and Japan - are expected to see their populations halve by 2100.

Japan's population is projected to fall from a peak of 128 million in 2017 to less than 53 million by the end of the century. Italy is expected to see an equally dramatic population crash from 61 million to 28 million over the same timeframe. They are two of 23 countries - which also include Spain, Portugal, Thailand and South Korea - expected to see their population more than halve. China, currently the most populous nation in the world, is expected to peak at 1.4 billion in four years time before nearly halving to 732 million by 2100. India will take its place.
Fertility rate: 'Jaw-dropping' global crash in children being born - BBC News

This impact will be huge. Notice that African and South American countries are not experiencing huge population decline. It also means that countries with a dramatic decline in birth rate also means aging populations and in some far more elderly than young people.

Dammit! Once again I am reminded that I was born 100 years too soon. I'd give my left nut to live in an empty world.

 

[joko104]

Fertility rates aren't dropping for every demographic.

Correct, the population of African - the poorest continent - is growing exponentially. By 2050 the white population will decline by nearly 50%, while the population of Africa will double.

 

[Xilnik]

With people being home with stay at home orders from March-May (and safer at home after), I suspect we will see something similar to the baby boomers in the near future.

 

[Thoreau72]

Falling fertility rates mean nearly every country could have shrinking populations by the end of the century. And 23 nations - including Spain and Japan - are expected to see their populations halve by 2100.

Japan's population is projected to fall from a peak of 128 million in 2017 to less than 53 million by the end of the century. Italy is expected to see an equally dramatic population crash from 61 million to 28 million over the same timeframe. They are two of 23 countries - which also include Spain, Portugal, Thailand and South Korea - expected to see their population more than halve. China, currently the most populous nation in the world, is expected to peak at 1.4 billion in four years time before nearly halving to 732 million by 2100. India will take its place.
Fertility rate: 'Jaw-dropping' global crash in children being born - BBC News

This impact will be huge. Notice that African and South American countries are not experiencing huge population decline. It also means that countries with a dramatic decline in birth rate also means aging populations and in some far more elderly than young people.

This general process has been going on for several years. I wonder if Covid has accelerated it?

 

[bearpoker]

Falling fertility rates mean nearly every country could have shrinking populations by the end of the century. And 23 nations - including Spain and Japan - are expected to see their populations halve by 2100.

Japan's population is projected to fall from a peak of 128 million in 2017 to less than 53 million by the end of the century. Italy is expected to see an equally dramatic population crash from 61 million to 28 million over the same timeframe. They are two of 23 countries - which also include Spain, Portugal, Thailand and South Korea - expected to see their population more than halve. China, currently the most populous nation in the world, is expected to peak at 1.4 billion in four years time before nearly halving to 732 million by 2100. India will take its place.
Fertility rate: 'Jaw-dropping' global crash in children being born - BBC News

This impact will be huge. Notice that African and South American countries are not experiencing huge population decline. It also means that countries with a dramatic decline in birth rate also means aging populations and in some far more elderly than young people.

Countries with aging populations will have to import younger workers to keep their economies going. We've actually known this for the last 10 years, or so, since our own birth rate has dropped below replacement levels. Reality's a bitch, which is why Trump and his supporters are so opposed to it.

 

[joko104]

Countries with aging populations will have to import younger workers to keep their economies going. We've actually known this for the last 10 years, or so, since our own birth rate has dropped below replacement levels. Reality's a bitch, which is why Trump and his supporters are so opposed to it.

No, we do not have to import younger workers. Technology - particularly robotics - will more than make up the loss. There are far more unskilled workers - millions and millions - than the USA needs - keeping blue collar wages always bottomed out. A decline in a younger population may solve that problem and could eliminate poverty level wages once and for all in the USA.

 

[Moderate Right]

Falling fertility rates mean nearly every country could have shrinking populations by the end of the century. And 23 nations - including Spain and Japan - are expected to see their populations halve by 2100.

Japan's population is projected to fall from a peak of 128 million in 2017 to less than 53 million by the end of the century. Italy is expected to see an equally dramatic population crash from 61 million to 28 million over the same timeframe. They are two of 23 countries - which also include Spain, Portugal, Thailand and South Korea - expected to see their population more than halve. China, currently the most populous nation in the world, is expected to peak at 1.4 billion in four years time before nearly halving to 732 million by 2100. India will take its place.
Fertility rate: 'Jaw-dropping' global crash in children being born - BBC News

This impact will be huge. Notice that African and South American countries are not experiencing huge population decline. It also means that countries with a dramatic decline in birth rate also means aging populations and in some far more elderly than young people.

Guess we should have listened to Greta Thunberg.

 

[rjay]

Falling fertility rates mean nearly every country could have shrinking populations by the end of the century. And 23 nations - including Spain and Japan - are expected to see their populations halve by 2100.

Japan's population is projected to fall from a peak of 128 million in 2017 to less than 53 million by the end of the century. Italy is expected to see an equally dramatic population crash from 61 million to 28 million over the same timeframe. They are two of 23 countries - which also include Spain, Portugal, Thailand and South Korea - expected to see their population more than halve. China, currently the most populous nation in the world, is expected to peak at 1.4 billion in four years time before nearly halving to 732 million by 2100. India will take its place.
Fertility rate: 'Jaw-dropping' global crash in children being born - BBC News

This impact will be huge. Notice that African and South American countries are not experiencing huge population decline. It also means that countries with a dramatic decline in birth rate also means aging populations and in some far more elderly than young people.

Let's check again 9 months after COVID-19 lockdowns are over

 

[calamity]

Guess we should have listened to Greta Thunberg.

Man, there is no need for you to prove what all already suspect.

 

[Moderate Right]

Man, there is no need for you to prove what all already suspect.

I suspected that someone with no sense of humor would reply to my post. You guys are way too easy to figure out.

 

[HenryChinaski]

Falling fertility rates mean nearly every country could have shrinking populations by the end of the century. And 23 nations - including Spain and Japan - are expected to see their populations halve by 2100.

Japan's population is projected to fall from a peak of 128 million in 2017 to less than 53 million by the end of the century. Italy is expected to see an equally dramatic population crash from 61 million to 28 million over the same timeframe. They are two of 23 countries - which also include Spain, Portugal, Thailand and South Korea - expected to see their population more than halve. China, currently the most populous nation in the world, is expected to peak at 1.4 billion in four years time before nearly halving to 732 million by 2100. India will take its place.
Fertility rate: 'Jaw-dropping' global crash in children being born - BBC News

This impact will be huge. Notice that African and South American countries are not experiencing huge population decline. It also means that countries with a dramatic decline in birth rate also means aging populations and in some far more elderly than young people.

Great, thanks Obama..

 

[JoeTheEconomist]

Such changes do present problems for programs like Social Security, Medicare and defined benefit public employee pension plans which depend on having enough current workers (aka taxpayers) to support current retirees.

COVID-19 is pushing fertility down. Fewer babies does not hurt Social Security near-term because these kids aren't going to get meaningful jobs for decades. 20 year out, you will see fewer workers and that will affect the percentage of Social Security that you are promised. It is supposed to be something like 75-80%. If fertility fails to materialize, that reduction will grow.

I wrote on the COVID-19 impact here if you are interested... :

Fertility Breeds Instability for Social Security - FedSmith.com

 

[Deuce]

This general process has been going on for several years. I wonder if Covid has accelerated it?

Doubtful. Dropping birth rates correlate with more stable, less-diseased, higher GDP societies, not the other way around.