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Fauci warns coronavirus could kill as many as 200,000 Americans

JacksinPA

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Fauci warns coronavirus could kill as many as 200,000 Americans | World news | The Guardian

Top US infectious disease expert cautions that figure is a ‘moving target’ that could easily be wrong

Dr Anthony Fauci, the leading US government infectious disease expert, offered a grim prediction on Sunday: the coronavirus could kill as many as 200,000 Americans.

“I mean, looking at what we’re seeing now, I would say between 100,000 and 200,000 … deaths,” Fauci told CNN’s State of the Union, though he added: “I just don’t think that we really need to make a projection, when it’s such a moving target that you can so easily be wrong and mislead people.”
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According to researchers at Johns Hopkins University, by Sunday morning the US had confirmed nearly 125,000 cases of Covid-19.
 

Drawdown

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Fauci warns coronavirus could kill as many as 200,000 Americans | World news | The Guardian

Top US infectious disease expert cautions that figure is a ‘moving target’ that could easily be wrong

Dr Anthony Fauci, the leading US government infectious disease expert, offered a grim prediction on Sunday: the coronavirus could kill as many as 200,000 Americans.

“I mean, looking at what we’re seeing now, I would say between 100,000 and 200,000 … deaths,” Fauci told CNN’s State of the Union, though he added: “I just don’t think that we really need to make a projection, when it’s such a moving target that you can so easily be wrong and mislead people.”
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According to researchers at Johns Hopkins University, by Sunday morning the US had confirmed nearly 125,000 cases of Covid-19.
Dr. Fauci likes making headlines. It is his few days in the sun.
 

joko104

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Fauci warns coronavirus could kill as many as 200,000 Americans | World news | The Guardian

Top US infectious disease expert cautions that figure is a ‘moving target’ that could easily be wrong

Dr Anthony Fauci, the leading US government infectious disease expert, offered a grim prediction on Sunday: the coronavirus could kill as many as 200,000 Americans.

“I mean, looking at what we’re seeing now, I would say between 100,000 and 200,000 … deaths,” Fauci told CNN’s State of the Union, though he added: “I just don’t think that we really need to make a projection, when it’s such a moving target that you can so easily be wrong and mislead people.”
=========================================================
According to researchers at Johns Hopkins University, by Sunday morning the US had confirmed nearly 125,000 cases of Covid-19.
Summary of what he said: "I don't know what the hell is going to happen. But I want all of you to be terrified anyway."
 

joko104

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You have a better prediction than the expert? Let's have it...
He didn't make a prediction. He said he couldn't.

NASA: "We can't say whether or not an asteroid might soon destroy all life on earth. But it could happen. Any other update you want?"
 

apdst

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You have a better prediction than the expert? Let's have it...
How does Fauci know? The virus has been known to exist for 4 months. How can he be an "expert' this soon?
 

ttwtt78640

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You have a better prediction than the expert? Let's have it...
When an "expert" openly admits that they cannot make an accurate prediction then they should not offer one.
 

PoS

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You have a better prediction than the expert? Let's have it...
Instead of silly predictions, why doesnt the expert just focus on dealing with the virus instead of scaremongering?
 

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He didn't make a prediction. He said he couldn't.
And yet he did.

How does Fauci know? The virus has been known to exist for 4 months. How can he be an "expert' this soon?
Because he went to school for it and worked in this field for a long time and has seen other situations similar to this and know which models to look at and which ones to dismiss, etc.

When an "expert" openly admits that they cannot make an accurate prediction then they should not offer one.
And yet he felt comfortable enough to give us a wide range. True, he also said not to hold him to it, but that's a given.

"Whenever the models come in, they give a worst-case scenario and a best-case scenario. Generally, the reality is somewhere in the middle. I've never seen a model of the diseases that I've dealt with where the worst case actually came out. They always overshoot," Dr. Anthony Fauci, a key member of the White House's coronavirus task force, told CNN's Jake Tapper on "State of the Union."
"I mean, looking at what we're seeing now, you know, I would say between 100 and 200,000 (deaths). But I don't want to be held to that," he said, adding that the US is going to have "millions of cases."
source
 

apdst

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And yet he did.



Because he went to school for it and worked in this field for a long time and has seen other situations similar to this and know which models to look at and which ones to dismiss, etc.



And yet he felt comfortable enough to give us a wide range. True, he also said not to hold him to it, but that's a given.
He didn't go to school for COVID-19
 

Jetboogieman

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Wow... This thread proves, Trump supporters are barely literate and capable of comprehending information from someone even marginally more intelligent than them.

How on Earth did they make it into adulthood with this level of stupidity?
 

ttwtt78640

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And yet he did.



Because he went to school for it and worked in this field for a long time and has seen other situations similar to this and know which models to look at and which ones to dismiss, etc.



And yet he felt comfortable enough to give us a wide range. True, he also said not to hold him to it, but that's a given.
Yep, but why between 100K (4X the current count) and 200K (8X the current count)? What, in his opinion, would make that 100K difference? That would have been my immediate follow-up question.
 
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eman623

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Anyone who tries to tell you how many people might die is lying or self-deluded. We just don't know. We don't know how may will be infected and we don't know what the mortality rate will be.
 

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Yep, but why between 100K (4X the current count) and 200K (8X the current count)? What, in his opinion, would make that 100K difference? That would have been my immediate follow-up question.
Simple: exponential growth like in rest of the world as well as here in USA... As to which models he looked at and how he came up with that range, that I don't know.

On a side note, check out the slopes of those curves... USA is doing the worst of all on flattening the curve.

covid_curve_flattening_us_vs_others_mar26_20.jpg
 

FreedomFromAll

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Instead of silly predictions, why doesnt the expert just focus on dealing with the virus instead of scaremongering?
He isnt "scaremongering" he is countering Trumps BS. If it wasnt for Trump saying the stupid crap that he says you would hear a lot less from Dr. Fauci.
 

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How does Fauci know? The virus has been known to exist for 4 months. How can he be an "expert' this soon?
Willful ignorance much? Come on we know COVID is a SARS strain, itself something not unlike influenza. There are decades of scientific modeling behind this - enough so that predictions can be made.

Looking at the staggering death toll in Italy - go on, tell us almost a thousand people would have died of the common flu in a single day - it is easy to imagine that if left unchecked, the disease could do that and worse. Thankfully it's a worst-case scenario that probably presupposes inaction. As it is, with everyone doing all they can to stop it (with the exception perhaps of one disengaged orange buffoon) it won't get that bad.

But when an infectious diseases expert says it could get that bad, he knows what he's talking about. And come on, we all know this. Trump doesn't need to be protected that badly.
 
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joko104

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Wow... This thread proves, Trump supporters are barely literate and capable of comprehending information from someone even marginally more intelligent than them.

How on Earth did they make it into adulthood with this level of stupidity?
There shouldn't be a comma in your first sentence.
 

Hamish Howl

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Anyone who tries to tell you how many people might die is lying or self-deluded. We just don't know. We don't know how may will be infected and we don't know what the mortality rate will be.
Yes, yes, epidemiology is voodoo. It is known.
 

Metric Mouse

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Why is he down playing this so much? He's below all other experts and models by almost an order of magnitude.
 

joko104

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Willful ignorance much? Come on we know COVID is a SARS strain, itself something not unlike influenza. There are decades of scientific modeling behind this - enough so that predictions can be made.

Looking at the staggering death toll in Italy - go on, tell us almost a thousand people would have died of the common flu in a single day - it is easy to imagine that if left unchecked, the disease could do that and worse. Thankfully it's a worst-case scenario that probably presupposes inaction. As it is, with everyone doing all they can to stop it (with the exception perhaps of one disengaged orange buffoon) it won't get that bad.

But when an infectious diseases expert says it could get that bad, he knows what he's talking about. And come on, we all know this. Trump doesn't need to be protected that badly.
:eek:STAGGERING DEATH RATES IN ITALY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The flu kills has 200% more people in Italy per year, but you say STAGGERING DEATH RATES IN ITALY!

https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(19)30328-5/fulltext

Link to your previous "STAGGERING DEATH RATES IN ITALY" from the flu. You can't.

Panic fear and hate make people extraordinarily STUPID, mentally and psychologically crippled, and can be very dangerous or very worthless.

Death rates in Italy are high because Italy has one of the most aged populations in the world. #2 at 22% of the population. Only Japan is higher (other than I believe no statistics about anything from China.)

Which Country Has the Oldest Population? It Depends on How You Define ‘Old.’ – Population Reference Bureau
But to be the good mindless Democrat progressives a person also has to claim that age is no longer a relevant factor, right? As Joe Biden said, Democrats will not longer accept facts.

That said, covid-19 COULD get bad. It potentially COULD even get as bad as the flu. I bet Fauci loves the money pouring into the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, don't you think? Why would he want that money raining down on his organization slowed down?

In all of this, it takes usually only takes seconds of thought to see the obvious economic profit motives.
 

Hamish Howl

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It will be known. Future tense.
Yes, each and every virus has entirely new propagation rules.

UNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNG
 

Hamish Howl

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He didn't go to school for COVID-19
Ladies and gentlemen, I give you...Perfection.

I mean, it's stupid, but perfection of absolute idiocy is still a kind of perfection.
 
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