Farmers nearing crisis push back on Trump trade policies

Farmers nearing crisis push back on Trump trade policies


President Donald Trump’s trade war is magnifying some of the toughest farm conditions since the crisis that bankrupted thousands of farmers in the 1980s — and threatening a constituency crucial to his reelection hopes.
The president’s trade policies have sent U.S. agricultural exports plunging, exacerbating already difficult economic conditions facing farmers. Average farm income has fallen to near 15-year lows under Trump, and in some areas of the country, farm bankruptcies are soaring.

The fate of the farm economy and rural America is fused to Trump’s political future. Farmers and ranchers make up the heart of his base, and their support in battleground Midwestern states like Iowa and Wisconsin could help determine the 2020 presidential election. Although Trump’s standing with those groups generally remains strong, cracks are starting to show.

Click to expand...

I have to scratch my head and wonder how these farmers can still stand behind a president whose policies are so bad that they are hurting them to the point of bankruptcy.

MTAtech said:

I have to scratch my head and wonder how these farmers can still stand behind a president whose policies are so bad that they are hurting them to the point of bankruptcy.

Click to expand...

Because like Trump they're always looking for a better deal.

MTAtech said:

I have to scratch my head and wonder how these farmers can still stand behind a president whose policies are so bad that they are hurting them to the point of bankruptcy.

Click to expand...

Because in many ways Trump plays them like a fiddle. He has convinced them he cares and he's not some elitist Coast liberal like the "others" even though he really is. To them the enemy is illegal immigrants and liberals, even though they need immigration badly to keep their farms going and liberal policies would better serve them. Trade wars are good and easy, even though they are not. They are either going to wake up and vote with their head or just keep voting against their own interests just to stick it to the liberals. It's like the meme of the dog sitting in a kitchen on fire and still says "this is fine", they are just going to burn themselves into the ground.

What’s fascinating is that farmers, because of their lobby, get huge subsidies but still complain about “the good welfare” going to Those People.

MTAtech said:

I have to scratch my head and wonder how these farmers can still stand behind a president whose policies are so bad that they are hurting them to the point of bankruptcy.

Click to expand...

As bad as this is going to sound... those who live on farming, ranching, in rural communities, etc. have no where else to go politically.

No one can dispute the damage that Trump's policies are having on these communities that center around farming and ranching, the article points out that while we are not quite at the 1980s crisis stage we are getting close to more rounds of critical bankruptcies.

Speaking in economic terms, when global demand for a product continues to climb but any one nation's participation in that supply diminishes we have a real problem. We have always said that tariffs and other means nations take to manipulate their participation in global trade end up picking winners and losers. In this case, Trump's ideals for going after China means using domestic farming and ranching as pawns. Those business models were already difficult in terms of profitability, and removing a large chunk of their output from a market buyer was stupidity on Trump's part.

But politically speaking there is not much alternative for these groups of Americans. Democrats do not want them, and about all they can do is appeal to Senators and House Representatives for help against a President that largely has discarded them. Relief payments to these people from our new trade reality will come to an end.

Now Trump's supporters will claim going up against China was about their trade and currency manipulation, their intellectual property theft, etc. In political terms they have a point, but in economic reality terms going up against China in a trade dispute has real consequence. "Being right" does not give our means of trade a bullet proof vest from global response. The reality is China was going to respond, and it speaks to a point I often get in trouble for around here by saying our economy is linked to China, as our economy is linked to the global economy.

What is happening to our farms and ranches is a direct result of that reality that politics tends to try to argue away, but they really cannot. The bankruptcies trending up we will see, the reduction in farming and ranching output we will see is my evidence. As is this article pointing out the difficulties this segment of the nation faces.

But to your point, who else are they going to turn to? "We want to put them out of business" Democrats? (In fairness, that quote is completely taken out of context and was originally pointed at coal.)

OrphanSlug said:

As bad as this is going to sound... those who live on farming, ranching, in rural communities, etc. have no where else to go politically.

...

Click to expand...

Actually, the Democrats are the natural constituency for farmers. However, they have been convinced, with a lot of help from right-wing radio and Fox, to vote for the party that works against their interests and least likely to protect their jobs, income, healthcare, and safety.

Farmers, like everyone else, require security in their lives. Do you really think farmers are going to get security from Republicans, who are primarily interested in giving tax cuts to corporations and billionaires while cutting safety and environmental regulations?

MTAtech said:

I have to scratch my head and wonder how these farmers can still stand behind a president whose policies are so bad that they are hurting them to the point of bankruptcy.

Click to expand...

thanks for reminding me that conservatives have also flip flopped on bailouts. I'll add it to the list.

MTAtech said:

I have to scratch my head and wonder how these farmers can still stand behind a president whose policies are so bad that they are hurting them to the point of bankruptcy.

Click to expand...

Really? You don't understand? You are underestimating the extent some on the right will go to try to insure any dem gets elected anywhere. The right hates progressive ideas. They will defend the practices that are putting them into that position rather than elect a democrat. Now the government they say they hate is offering them handouts, welfare...but they deserve it for some crazy reason and others don't.

I live in a rural farming community. Two things, one, farmers are not near crisis in most of the Midwest. Two, neither side has done farmers many favors over the last few decades, other than perhaps some stability and allowing Midwest reps and Senators to draft a solid farm bill.

The OP story is filled with hyperbole. Futures have slowly been on the way back up as the Chinese have been making negotiations and buying grains as needed with the trade agreements being reached. Its a giant argument to emotion.

OpportunityCost said:

I live in a rural farming community. Two things, one, farmers are not near crisis in most of the Midwest. Two, neither side has done farmers many favors over the last few decades, other than perhaps some stability and allowing Midwest reps and Senators to draft a solid farm bill.

The OP story is filled with hyperbole. Futures have slowly been on the way back up as the Chinese have been making negotiations and buying grains as needed with the trade agreements being reached. Its a giant argument to emotion.

Click to expand...

"both sides" everybody drink.

bongsaway said:

Really? You don't understand? You are underestimating the extent some on the right will go to try to insure any dem gets elected anywhere. The right hates progressive ideas. They will defend the practices that are putting them into that position rather than elect a democrat. Now the government they say they hate is offering them handouts, welfare...but they deserve it for some crazy reason and others don't.

Click to expand...

And the others that don't deserve it are getting food stamps that buy their products, keeping them in business.

If it weren't for big gubbimnt subsidies our economy would collapse...

OpportunityCost said:

I live in a rural farming community. Two things, one, farmers are not near crisis in most of the Midwest. Two, neither side has done farmers many favors over the last few decades, other than perhaps some stability and allowing Midwest reps and Senators to draft a solid farm bill.

The OP story is filled with hyperbole. Futures have slowly been on the way back up as the Chinese have been making negotiations and buying grains as needed with the trade agreements being reached. Its a giant argument to emotion.

Click to expand...

I don't know where you live but I work with farmers everyday here in Wisconsin and that is nowhere near what I hear...

MTAtech said:

Actually, the Democrats are the natural constituency for farmers. However, they have been convinced, with a lot of help from right-wing radio and Fox, to vote for the party that works against their interests and least likely to protect their jobs, income, healthcare, and safety.

Farmers, like everyone else, require security in their lives. Do you really think farmers are going to get security from Republicans, who are primarily interested in giving tax cuts to corporations and billionaires while cutting safety and environmental regulations?

Click to expand...

I do not buy it, sounds like you are telling me what you wish would happen over any sense of reality.

MTAtech said:

I have to scratch my head and wonder how these farmers can still stand behind a president whose policies are so bad that they are hurting them to the point of bankruptcy.

Click to expand...

Hate to say it...but it serves them right.

WCH said:

Because like Trump they're always looking for a better deal.

Click to expand...

The complete myth of Trump the negotiator. Flim flam.

Maybe someone should explain to Farmer Bob & Co. the purpose of the tariffs against China.

Besides the general economic stuff, China has, up until now, been allowed to get away with IP theft, cyber-espionage and HUMINT espionage regarding American military and corporate secrets FOR DECADES. Trump is punishing them and demanding they crack down in return for easing of the punishment.

Roadvirus said:

Maybe someone should explain to Farmer Bob & Co. the purpose of the tariffs against China.

Besides the general economic stuff, China has, up until now, been allowed to get away with IP theft, cyber-espionage and HUMINT espionage regarding American military and corporate secrets FOR DECADES. Trump is punishing them and demanding they crack down in return for easing of the punishment.

Click to expand...

Okay you come to the local tavern tomorrow night and explain that to them.

Let us know how that goes for ya...

Roadvirus said:

Maybe someone should explain to Farmer Bob & Co. the purpose of the tariffs against China.

Besides the general economic stuff, China has, up until now, been allowed to get away with IP theft, cyber-espionage and HUMINT espionage regarding American military and corporate secrets FOR DECADES. Trump is punishing them and demanding they crack down in return for easing of the punishment.

Click to expand...

.

And it's not working. Just like his sham with NK. Smoke and mirrors.

GDViking said:

I don't know where you live but I work with farmers everyday here in Wisconsin and that is nowhere near what I hear...

Click to expand...

Central Illinois. I don't know, I interact with farmers every single day and while they haven't been happy with the trade issues, its slowly been getting better as more and buys have been occurring.

Vern said:

"both sides" everybody drink.

Click to expand...

If you think back, the year that really made farmers nervous was when there was no farm bill. Neither side could get to where they wanted to be and no agreement could be reached. Farmers don't get any favors from any legislators other than their own districts and states. The farm bill simply doesn't matter to most Democrats and trade...well Republicans tend to screw them on trade.

MTAtech said:

I have to scratch my head and wonder how these farmers can still stand behind a president whose policies are so bad that they are hurting them to the point of bankruptcy.

Click to expand...

Here's an alternative explanation.

Any business reporter with a brain knows that those small tariffs had nothing to do with bankruptcies that occurred in 2018. Those farmers had to be struggling with too much debt for years, and they finally threw in the towel to do a bankruptcy workout program. So the tariffs absolutely did not cause the bankruptcies in 2018.
It is the debt that caused the problem, not a minor decrease in prices in 2018. Farmers also had record corn and soybean production and yields in 2018. The extra yield would have helped. Has the WSJ attempted to determine how much of the price decrease is related to extra yield and inventory, or are these people so wedded to blaming Trump for the tariffs that they don't care?

If the WSJ would like to blame anyone for the higher bankruptcies in 2018, why doesn't it blame the Federal Reserve? The Federal Reserve kept interest rates artificially low for years, which encouraged farmers and others to chase up the price of risk assets, like farmland, to higher values than the crop prices and rent prices would otherwise support

Click to expand...

Bullseye said:

Here's an alternative explanation.

Click to expand...

Any business reporter with a brain knows that those small tariffs had nothing to do with bankruptcies that occurred in 2018. Those farmers had to be struggling with too much debt for years, and they finally threw in the towel to do a bankruptcy workout program. So the tariffs absolutely did not cause the bankruptcies in 2018.
It is the debt that caused the problem, not a minor decrease in prices in 2018. Farmers also had record corn and soybean production and yields in 2018. The extra yield would have helped. Has the WSJ attempted to determine how much of the price decrease is related to extra yield and inventory, or are these people so wedded to blaming Trump for the tariffs that they don't care?

If the WSJ would like to blame anyone for the higher bankruptcies in 2018, why doesn't it blame the Federal Reserve? The Federal Reserve kept interest rates artificially low for years, which encouraged farmers and others to chase up the price of risk assets, like farmland, to higher values than the crop prices and rent prices would otherwise support

Click to expand...

Small tariffs, huh?

Agriculture.com: HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENED TO SOYBEAN EXPORTS SINCE TARIFFS
The implementation of tariffs on Chinese goods and the subsequent retaliation led to an adjustment of trade flows in world soybean markets over the last few months. As the tariffs went into effect, a price gap opened between Brazilian and U.S. export prices. The gap continually widened when comparing an index of soybean prices at the port of Paranagua and New Orleans prices since early June. The gap reached its broadest level late last week at an approximately $1.90-per-bushel difference.
...
A large amount of uncertainty surrounds soybean exports in the 2018-19 marketing year. Currently, the USDA forecasts 2.06 billion bushels of soybean exports. Export sales for the next marketing year sit at 510.4 million bushels as of August 30, down 54.8 million bushels from last year.

Click to expand...

MTAtech said:

Small tariffs, huh?

Click to expand...

WTF is "Successful Farming"? And why would a five-month old opinion that doesn't take into account recent developments have any bearing on my line? IF you read and comprehended my link you'd see that it was specifically addressing the WSJ story about Trump's tariffs causing some farm bankruptcies.

Top Cat said:

.

And it's not working. Just like his sham with NK. Smoke and mirrors.

Click to expand...

All you liberals are all for China stealing our intellectual capital and ripping us off on trade by the hundreds of billions. Just like Obama never did a thing with China, he thought as you do, it's OK what China is doing. Obama never insisted on NATO paying their fair share. NK there is a good one Clinton gave NK billions to keep their nuke program in high gear and Obama could care less what NK did, build all the nukes you want. Talk about Obama's sham, remember his RED LINE that Syria walked all over. Christ I would run out of ink before I ever got finished with Obama's FAILURES

Top Cat said:

.

And it's not working. Just like his sham with NK. Smoke and mirrors.

Click to expand...

So what's your solution to the problem? Kick the can down the road like his predecessors have done with China and the NK issue?