Explanation Behind that Long Stationary Convoy

[jpn]

Here's one theory, based on relevant experience. Beginning Twitter thread here:

 

[cpwill]

Ukrainian mud is no joke. Early Russian planning for a lightning war was likely pushed to the left to take place prior to Thaw.

We'll see how it plays out now that they are in a longer stretch. It's probably also true that, perfectly serviceable hard packed dirt roads break down into fields of mud when a few miles worth of heavy tracked vehicles ride over them.

 

[jpn]

Here's another tire expert. Slightly different take on it, but bottom line is cheap equipment, poor maintenance:

Bit of a tire expert here. Those aren't Soviet-era heavy truck radials. Chinese military tires, and I believe specifically the Yellow Sea YS20. This is a tire I first encountered in Somalia and Sudan; it's a bad Chinese copy of the excellent Michelin XZL military tire design.​

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In the Navy we had (have?) the Planned Maintenance System (PMS). It seemed like half my day abord the USS Hoel (DDG-13) was spent spot-checking how well the crew was performing their daily PMS.

Routine maintenance done well by a trained and responsible crew really pays off when the balloon goes up and separates effective modern military organizations from the rest.

 

[maxparrish]

Ukrainian mud is no joke. Early Russian planning for a lightning war was likely pushed to the left to take place prior to Thaw.

We'll see how it plays out now that they are in a longer stretch. It's probably also true that, perfectly serviceable hard packed dirt roads break down into fields of mud when a few miles worth of heavy tracked vehicles ride over them.

The mud season "officially" begins in 12 days. I pray the Ukrainians can hold out and get some relief.

 

[joluoto]

Ukrainian mud is no joke. Early Russian planning for a lightning war was likely pushed to the left to take place prior to Thaw.

We'll see how it plays out now that they are in a longer stretch. It's probably also true that, perfectly serviceable hard packed dirt roads break down into fields of mud when a few miles worth of heavy tracked vehicles ride over them.

Hitler also had to learn the hard way about the mud in Eastern Europe, and how it can be pain if you try to move a large convoy of heavy vehicles through it.

 

[Rogue Valley]

The muddy season - rasputitsa - arrived early in Ukraine.

However, the 40 mile Russian military convoy approaching Kyiv from the north (Belarus) has also had shortage of fuel problems and equipment sabotage by Rusian soldiers.

 

[KCook]

So, if this is mainly a "mud" problem, why aren't the other Russian columns stalled too? There is something weird going on with this one column.

 

[Juin]

So, if this is mainly a "mud" problem, why aren't the other Russian columns stalled too? There is something weird going on with this one column.

Good observation. There definitely is something fishy. My suspicion is that there may have been a change of plans after February 24th. A totally different plan may have been intended for the column at the beginning; then deemed undesirable in the evolving situation; and the column may be sitting while something radically different is drawn up.

But even that is problematic. A modern general staff should have plans in place for different contingencies. And a modern army should have the ability to quickly adapt. The Russian Army appears to be failing on both.

It is strange to have a big force, which could be dispatched to assault various Ukrainian fortresses, just sitting there.

 

[Minerva]

So, if this is mainly a "mud" problem, why aren't the other Russian columns stalled too? There is something weird going on with this one column.

There are reports that 9 Russian tanks and 4 APCs were destroyed in a "friendly fire" incident. I wonder if it was this column and if they are having discipline issues.

 

[Rogue Valley]

So, if this is mainly a "mud" problem, why aren't the other Russian columns stalled too? There is something weird going on with this one column.

It isn't a "mud" problem except when Russian armor goes off the interstates/paved roads..

 

[cpwill]

So, if this is mainly a "mud" problem, why aren't the other Russian columns stalled too? There is something weird going on with this one column.

@Rogue Valley may know better, but, my understanding is that Ukrainian terrain coming out of Crimea is drier/harder packed, and mud is a more severe issue to the north, where Russian advance has been much slower.

Add to that the natural wear and tear of an armored column 40 miles long.... 🤷‍♂️

 

[Rogue Valley]

@Rogue Valley may know better, but, my understanding is that Ukrainian terrain coming out of Crimea is drier/harder packed, and mud is a more severe issue to the north, where Russian advance has been much slower.

Add to that the natural wear and tear of an armored column 40 miles long.... 🤷‍♂️

Southern Ukraine receives less snow than its other regions. It rarely snows in Crimea (maybe once in a decade).

 

[cpwill]

Southern Ukraine receives less snow than its other regions. It rarely snows in Crimea (maybe once in a decade).

I'm guessing that melting snow contributes to mud?