Expert on Russia Says That Jan 6 Was A Significant Factor Regarding Putin's Decision To Invade Ukraine

[RIP U.S. Democracy]

I speculated several weeks ago that one reason Putin decided to invade Ukraine is that he saw a very weakened America on Jan 6, as a bunch of traitors loyal to Trump and his fascist cult Republican Party tried to overthrow our government.

I stipulated that Putin saw on Jan 6 that the Republican Traitor Party no longer believes in democracy. I stated that the events of Jan 6 helped embolden Putin to take a gamble and invade Ukraine.

Of course, several conservatives and even a couple of "liberals" ridiculed me for saying this.

A Question To Consider -- Would Putin Be Attacking Ukraine Right Now If Not For Jan 6?

We'll never know the answer to that question. Personally, I think Jan 6 had a significant impact on Putin's decision to attack Ukraine. I think Jan 6 emboldened Putin. Putin saw the despicable insurrection attempt on the U.S. Capitol and how a U.S. political party (i.e. the Republican Party)...

debatepolitics.com

But it turns out that I was right, after all. --

This is what Timothy Snyder, who has written several books about Russia including the New York Times bestseller On Tyranny, had to say in a Washington Post interview yesterday. --

Greg Sargent: What is it about Putin’s way of seeing the world, and his understanding of his own mythologies, that made it inevitable that he’d underestimate the Western response?

Timothy Snyder: For me the most revealing text here is the victory declaration, which the Russian press agency accidentally published on Feb. 26. What they say is that the West just basically needed one more push to fall into total disarray. If you watch Jan. 6 clips over and over again, you can get that impression. The Russians really have been fixated on Jan. 6. They thought a successful military operation in Ukraine would be that nudge: We’d feel helpless, we’d fall into conflict, it would help [Donald] Trump in the U.S., it would help populists around the world.

Sargent: When you say Russia has been making a lot of Jan. 6 — what do they read into it?

Snyder: Number one, they use it to mock us by saying, “These are just peaceful protesters.” Number two, they use it for one of their favorite arguments, which is that democracy is a joke everywhere. But the deeper point is that Trump’s attempt to overthrow the election on Jan. 6 made the American system look fragile. They think, “One more Trump and the Americans are done.” In invading Ukraine, they think they’re putting huge pressure on the Biden administration. They’re going to make Biden look weak. That probably was their deep fantasy about the West: Successful military occupation in Ukraine; the Biden administration is totally impotent; we humiliate them; Trump comes back; this is a big strategic victory for us.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/03/24/putin-misjudged-west-ukraine-timothy-snyder/

 

[Mycroft]

I speculated several weeks ago that one reason Putin decided to invade Ukraine is that he saw a very weakened America on Jan 6, as a bunch of traitors loyal to Trump and his fascist cult Republican Party tried to overthrow our government.

I stipulated that Putin saw on Jan 6 that the Republican Traitor Party no longer believes in democracy. I stated that the events of Jan 6 helped embolden Putin to take a gamble and invade Ukraine.

Of course, several conservatives and even a couple of "liberals" ridiculed me for saying this.

A Question To Consider -- Would Putin Be Attacking Ukraine Right Now If Not For Jan 6?

We'll never know the answer to that question. Personally, I think Jan 6 had a significant impact on Putin's decision to attack Ukraine. I think Jan 6 emboldened Putin. Putin saw the despicable insurrection attempt on the U.S. Capitol and how a U.S. political party (i.e. the Republican Party)...

debatepolitics.com

But it turns out that I was right, after all. --

This is what Timothy Snyder, who has written several books about Russia including the New York Times bestseller On Tyranny, had to say in a Washington Post interview yesterday. --

Greg Sargent: What is it about Putin’s way of seeing the world, and his understanding of his own mythologies, that made it inevitable that he’d underestimate the Western response?

Timothy Snyder: For me the most revealing text here is the victory declaration, which the Russian press agency accidentally published on Feb. 26. What they say is that the West just basically needed one more push to fall into total disarray. If you watch Jan. 6 clips over and over again, you can get that impression. The Russians really have been fixated on Jan. 6. They thought a successful military operation in Ukraine would be that nudge: We’d feel helpless, we’d fall into conflict, it would help [Donald] Trump in the U.S., it would help populists around the world.

Sargent: When you say Russia has been making a lot of Jan. 6 — what do they read into it?

Snyder: Number one, they use it to mock us by saying, “These are just peaceful protesters.” Number two, they use it for one of their favorite arguments, which is that democracy is a joke everywhere. But the deeper point is that Trump’s attempt to overthrow the election on Jan. 6 made the American system look fragile. They think, “One more Trump and the Americans are done.” In invading Ukraine, they think they’re putting huge pressure on the Biden administration. They’re going to make Biden look weak. That probably was their deep fantasy about the West: Successful military occupation in Ukraine; the Biden administration is totally impotent; we humiliate them; Trump comes back; this is a big strategic victory for us.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/03/24/putin-misjudged-west-ukraine-timothy-snyder/

Opinions are like assholes...and Trump hating media talking potato heads have the stinkiest opinions.

 

[Gateman_Wen]

I speculated several weeks ago that one reason Putin decided to invade Ukraine is that he saw a very weakened America on Jan 6, as a bunch of traitors loyal to Trump and his fascist cult Republican Party tried to overthrow our government.

I stipulated that Putin saw on Jan 6 that the Republican Traitor Party no longer believes in democracy. I stated that the events of Jan 6 helped embolden Putin to take a gamble and invade Ukraine.

Of course, several conservatives and even a couple of "liberals" ridiculed me for saying this.

A Question To Consider -- Would Putin Be Attacking Ukraine Right Now If Not For Jan 6?

We'll never know the answer to that question. Personally, I think Jan 6 had a significant impact on Putin's decision to attack Ukraine. I think Jan 6 emboldened Putin. Putin saw the despicable insurrection attempt on the U.S. Capitol and how a U.S. political party (i.e. the Republican Party)...

debatepolitics.com

But it turns out that I was right, after all. --

This is what Timothy Snyder, who has written several books about Russia including the New York Times bestseller On Tyranny, had to say in a Washington Post interview yesterday. --

Greg Sargent: What is it about Putin’s way of seeing the world, and his understanding of his own mythologies, that made it inevitable that he’d underestimate the Western response?

Timothy Snyder: For me the most revealing text here is the victory declaration, which the Russian press agency accidentally published on Feb. 26. What they say is that the West just basically needed one more push to fall into total disarray. If you watch Jan. 6 clips over and over again, you can get that impression. The Russians really have been fixated on Jan. 6. They thought a successful military operation in Ukraine would be that nudge: We’d feel helpless, we’d fall into conflict, it would help [Donald] Trump in the U.S., it would help populists around the world.

Sargent: When you say Russia has been making a lot of Jan. 6 — what do they read into it?

Snyder: Number one, they use it to mock us by saying, “These are just peaceful protesters.” Number two, they use it for one of their favorite arguments, which is that democracy is a joke everywhere. But the deeper point is that Trump’s attempt to overthrow the election on Jan. 6 made the American system look fragile. They think, “One more Trump and the Americans are done.” In invading Ukraine, they think they’re putting huge pressure on the Biden administration. They’re going to make Biden look weak. That probably was their deep fantasy about the West: Successful military occupation in Ukraine; the Biden administration is totally impotent; we humiliate them; Trump comes back; this is a big strategic victory for us.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/03/24/putin-misjudged-west-ukraine-timothy-snyder/

It could very well have been a factor.

 

[beefheart]

Opinions are like assholes...and Trump hating media talking potato heads have the stinkiest opinions.

Irony

 

[Utility Man]

Opinions are like assholes...and Trump hating media talking potato heads have the stinkiest opinions.

Weren't you guys supposed to be circling DC in your wagons and blocking bridges between Canada and the US right about now ?

 

[The AntiDonald]

Opinions are like assholes...and Trump hating media talking potato heads have the stinkiest opinions.

I am of the same opinion. Putin sees America falling apart and that's his signal to make war. He's been itching to do this for years. But he underestimated Biden's ability to fiercely unite NATO and the rest of the world against him.

So, what Putin has now, has turned into one huge backfire. He is taking terrible causalities in Ukraine and his country is circling the drain. I doubt he thought it would happen this way.

Biden gets a share of the credit for uniting the world. Trump gets the credit for giving Putin the signal to attack. But he failed, as Trump always has. The world has no intention of letting up on Putin. He's going down, it's just a matter of time.

 

[CaughtInThe]

I am of the same opinion. Putin sees America falling apart and that's his signal to make war. He's been itching to do this for years. But he underestimated Biden's ability to fiercely unite NATO and the rest of the world against him.

yup

 

[RIP U.S. Democracy]

Opinions are like assholes...and Trump hating media talking potato heads have the stinkiest opinions.

Some opinions are obviously worth more than others.

Yours is meaningless.

 

[Artymoon]

But it turns out that I was right, after all. --

Yes, Putin saw on Jan 6th that they were going to certify Biden as president. The rest of 2021 just confirmed his initial assessment.

 

[RIP U.S. Democracy]

Yes, Putin saw on Jan 6th that they were going to certify Biden as president. The rest of 2021 just confirmed his initial assessment.

Yeah, he saw that....late at night on Jan 6 after the Capitol was destroyed by a bunch of Trumpster traitors.

Perhaps more encouraging for Putin, he saw 147 Republican traitors in Congress vote to overturn Biden's victory, with no evidence of voter fraud.

Putin saw his brethren in these 147 Republican fascists who no longer believe in democracy.

 

[EdwinWillers]

Opinions are like assholes...and Trump hating media talking potato heads have the stinkiest opinions.

Touche, sir! Touche! 👏 👏

 

[Mithrae]

I speculated several weeks ago that one reason Putin decided to invade Ukraine is that he saw a very weakened America on Jan 6, as a bunch of traitors loyal to Trump and his fascist cult Republican Party tried to overthrow our government.

I stipulated that Putin saw on Jan 6 that the Republican Traitor Party no longer believes in democracy. I stated that the events of Jan 6 helped embolden Putin to take a gamble and invade Ukraine.

Of course, several conservatives and even a couple of "liberals" ridiculed me for saying this.

Why the scare quotes around 'liberals'? Is agreeing with your opinions part of the definition of liberal now?

In the bits of the interview that the Washington Post has chosen to highlight, Snyder and the leading interviewer don't answer or even mention any of the key questions which would make this idea plausible:
- Whatever its symbolic significance and influence on folks' opinions, have there been any major practical consequences from the events of Jan 6th?
- How would the response of the West have been any different if Biden's confirmation had gone ahead without upset?
- Would Putin have not invaded in the event that Trump had won a second term?
- Above all, why would Putin's long history of aggression and meddling in the affairs of Russia's satellite states, in Chechnya, Belarus, Georgia and even a smaller prior invasion of Ukraine, suddenly hinge for its continuation or cessation on an event in a faraway country which has had virtually no practical consequence even in that country?

In the end Snyder concedes that "This war is happening because of the worldview and decisions of essentially one person." He situates the Jan 6th insurrection attempt into that worldview in terms of reinforcing the beliefs that a) pluralistic democracy is weak and b) on the verge of implosion in the USA: But obviously Putin would still believe that pluralistic democracy is weak with or without 1/6, and likewise with or without 1/6 would have had ample reason (even more than most of the rest of us, given his manipulations of the 2016 election) to see the major divisions and serious cracks in the American political scene. The insurrection attempt is just a confirming cherry on top of even those points, which themselves are just a tiny part of the "worldview and decisions" of Putin's wider ideas of Russian hegemony, expansion and imperialism!

'Significant'? That can mean pretty much whatever you want it to mean - particularly when you think it's helpful to bolster rhetoric against the other party back home, as the interviewer works hard to do - but there's every reason to believe that Putin would have invaded with or without 1/6 (and likely even regardless of whether Biden or Trump won).

 

[RIP U.S. Democracy]

Why the scare quotes around 'liberals'? Is agreeing with your opinions part of the definition of liberal now?

Because no real liberal would disagree with what I wrote. It's simply unreasonable for any liberal to discount the possibility that Jan 6 had a significant influence on Putin's decision to invade Ukraine.

 

[EdwinWillers]

"...no real liberal?"

Is that something like "no true Scotsman?"

 

[Mithrae]

Because no real liberal would disagree with what I wrote. It's simply unreasonable for any liberal to discount the possibility that Jan 6 had a significant influence on Putin's decision to invade Ukraine.

Ah, that'd be more of that witch-hunt mentality then. Throw every accusation at 'em you can think of - even using the Department of Justice to go wildly chasing after your political opponents, if you had your way - and hope that some of it sticks as even a mere "possibility" of having some "significant influence." And everyone who isn't with you in that crusade is obviously against you!

Those really aren't liberal values; quite the opposite if anything, they sound like the sort of thing Putin and Trump would be proud of.

 

[smallvoice]

I speculated several weeks ago that one reason Putin decided to invade Ukraine is that he saw a very weakened America on Jan 6, as a bunch of traitors loyal to Trump and his fascist cult Republican Party tried to overthrow our government.

I stipulated that Putin saw on Jan 6 that the Republican Traitor Party no longer believes in democracy. I stated that the events of Jan 6 helped embolden Putin to take a gamble and invade Ukraine.

Of course, several conservatives and even a couple of "liberals" ridiculed me for saying this.

A Question To Consider -- Would Putin Be Attacking Ukraine Right Now If Not For Jan 6?

We'll never know the answer to that question. Personally, I think Jan 6 had a significant impact on Putin's decision to attack Ukraine. I think Jan 6 emboldened Putin. Putin saw the despicable insurrection attempt on the U.S. Capitol and how a U.S. political party (i.e. the Republican Party)...

debatepolitics.com

But it turns out that I was right, after all. --

This is what Timothy Snyder, who has written several books about Russia including the New York Times bestseller On Tyranny, had to say in a Washington Post interview yesterday. --

Greg Sargent: What is it about Putin’s way of seeing the world, and his understanding of his own mythologies, that made it inevitable that he’d underestimate the Western response?

Timothy Snyder: For me the most revealing text here is the victory declaration, which the Russian press agency accidentally published on Feb. 26. What they say is that the West just basically needed one more push to fall into total disarray. If you watch Jan. 6 clips over and over again, you can get that impression. The Russians really have been fixated on Jan. 6. They thought a successful military operation in Ukraine would be that nudge: We’d feel helpless, we’d fall into conflict, it would help [Donald] Trump in the U.S., it would help populists around the world.

Sargent: When you say Russia has been making a lot of Jan. 6 — what do they read into it?

Snyder: Number one, they use it to mock us by saying, “These are just peaceful protesters.” Number two, they use it for one of their favorite arguments, which is that democracy is a joke everywhere. But the deeper point is that Trump’s attempt to overthrow the election on Jan. 6 made the American system look fragile. They think, “One more Trump and the Americans are done.” In invading Ukraine, they think they’re putting huge pressure on the Biden administration. They’re going to make Biden look weak. That probably was their deep fantasy about the West: Successful military occupation in Ukraine; the Biden administration is totally impotent; we humiliate them; Trump comes back; this is a big strategic victory for us.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/03/24/putin-misjudged-west-ukraine-timothy-snyder/

No, you were wrong then and you are still wrong.

 

[RIP U.S. Democracy]

Ah, that'd be more of that witch-hunt mentality then. Throw every accusation at 'em you can think of - even using the Department of Justice to go wildly chasing after your political opponents, if you had your way - and hope that some of it sticks as even a mere "possibility" of having some "significant influence." And everyone who isn't with you in that crusade is obviously against you!

Those really aren't liberal values, quite the opposite if anything.

They are not my political opponents...they're just people that I don't agree with.

And they're also not real liberals, to just dismiss it as a possibility.

 

[RIP U.S. Democracy]

No, you were wrong then and you are still wrong.

Not according to the expert on Russia....which sure as hell ain't you.

 

[smallvoice]

Not according to the expert on Russia....which sure as hell ain't you.

And neither is he, nor you.

But my military background makes me more likely to be an expert than you and your ilk.

 

[RIP U.S. Democracy]

And neither is he, nor you.

But my military background makes me more likely to be an expert than you and your ilk.

He is a scholar, you are not.

That's why you are a Trumpster....and he is not.

 

[Artymoon]

Yeah, he saw that....late at night on Jan 6 after the Capitol was destroyed by a bunch of Trumpster traitors.

Perhaps more encouraging for Putin, he saw 147 Republican traitors in Congress vote to overturn Biden's victory, with no evidence of voter fraud.

Putin saw his brethren in these 147 Republican fascists who no longer believe in democracy.

Oh my. Yep, that's probably what did it.

 

[RIP U.S. Democracy]

Oh my. Yep, that's probably what did it.

Glad you're finally learning something.

 

[Artymoon]

Glad you're finally learning something.

More a confirmation. Toodles.

 

[RIP U.S. Democracy]

I am of the same opinion. Putin sees America falling apart and that's his signal to make war. He's been itching to do this for years. But he underestimated Biden's ability to fiercely unite NATO and the rest of the world against him.

So, what Putin has now, has turned into one huge backfire. He is taking terrible causalities in Ukraine and his country is circling the drain. I doubt he thought it would happen this way.

Biden gets a share of the credit for uniting the world. Trump gets the credit for giving Putin the signal to attack. But he failed, as Trump always has. The world has no intention of letting up on Putin. He's going down, it's just a matter of time.

Biden deserved some blame for what happened during the chaotic Afghanistan evacuation. At the same time, Biden also deserves a lot credit for reinvigorating NATO and standing up to Putin.

Thank goodness Trump is still not President. He probably would have tried to send American troops to help invade Ukraine, a.k.a. Germany and the USSR invading Poland in 1939.