Exclusive: Trump-endorsed J.D. Vance takes commanding lead in new OH primary poll

[gbg3]

I think Vance will get this nomination but, like mentioned, Dolan did have a recent bounce. Here is how the betting market sees the situation over the last 90 days.

 

[TurtleDude]

I think Vance will get this nomination but, like mentioned, Dolan did have a recent bounce. Here is how the betting market sees the situation over the last 90 days.

View attachment 67388387

Mandel's performance in a past election was awful. So that alone is a reason I won't support him (if he wins the nomination I will vote for him though since I don't want two Democrats in the senate from Ohio). Dolan is not supported by any of the pro gun groups in Ohio, So that is a reason I won't vote for him. i think Timken is the smartest candidate running and since Portman is my favorite politician going, I will support her

 

[Tender Branson]

Vance and Co. make it into the Austrian news media:

Der Teufelspakt des Neo-Trump-Fans J. D. Vance

Der Autor wurde weltweit als kritischer Erklärer des Trump-Erfolgs gelesen. Nun drängt er mit rechtsnationalen Parolen selbst in den US-Senat

www.derstandard.at

Google translated:

Primaries

Neo-Trump fan J.D. Vance's pact with the devil

The author was read around the world as a critical commentator on Trump's success. Now he is pushing himself into the Senate with right-wing slogans

Karl Domens from Portsmouth May 1, 2022, 07:00

The front of Mr. Gatti's, where you can get a $7 buffalo chicken or cheeseburger pizza buffet, is bustling with activity. The unadorned event hall behind it with its spinach-green walls, on the other hand, is rather sparsely filled at lunchtime. The two dozen guests hardly notice when shortly after one o'clock a bearded man in jeans and a gray jacket steps through the door, grabs a microphone and stands in front of a cardboard wall with his name on it. "Hi," says the speaker, "I'm J.D. Vance. I'm a conservative misfit. I've never run for public office. I want to bring fresh blood to Washington and shake things up."

 

[TomFitz]

Now see? This is why I don't pay attention to polls.

We have another thread this morning that says some other guy is way ahead in a poll for the Ohio Senate Republican primary.

Republican who refuses to bend the knee to Trump surges in Ohio Senate race

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/04/29/trump-says-matt-dolan-is-not-fit-for-ohios-senate-seat-hes-gaining-ground-anyway-00028824 Republican who refuses to bend the knee to Trump surges in Ohio Senate race Matt Dolan, who wants the former president to stop pushing "lies about the outcome" of...

debatepolitics.com

They can't both be right.

The fact that the poll the OP mentioned was “shared exclusively with Breitbart “News”” is a hint.

 

[EMNofSeattle]

Mandel's performance in a past election was awful. So that alone is a reason I won't support him (if he wins the nomination I will vote for him though since I don't want two Democrats in the senate from Ohio). Dolan is not supported by any of the pro gun groups in Ohio, So that is a reason I won't vote for him. i think Timken is the smartest candidate running and since Portman is my favorite politician going, I will support her

Portman is terrible. He used to own a local business, which he sold to a giant Dutch corporation. Showing that like many members of the Republican party, his professed loyalty to America is mere lipservice.

Plus I don’t see where Portman has been some giant advocate of The Second Amendment.

Fortunately though, he will soon be replaced by JD Vance, who actually grew up in the base and actually loves America

 

[Mycroft]

The fact that the poll the OP mentioned was “shared exclusively with Breitbart “News”” is a hint.

Why? Is there something about that poll that makes it less reliable than the other poll?

I haven't looked at either of them, so I don't know.

Or do you just dishonestly dismiss something because it's reported by someone you don't like?

 

[Rexedgar]

I wonder if any of these folks were polled…..

 

[TomFitz]

A new Emerson poll (which usually is pretty accurate), shows a much closer race:

Emerson Polling

Ohio 2022 Poll: Trump Endorsement Boosts JD Vance in Four-way Ohio Senate Race; Governor DeWine Holds Lead for Republican Nomination

emersonpolling.reportablenews.com

If this is accurate, its also yet another confirmation of the GOP’s greatest fear.

JD Vance is at the top of this poll, but not by much. And the next three opponents outpoll his significantly.

This poll pretty much tells you that Vance may win…..barely. And that his victory will probably be a plurality, not a majority.

This is the path Trump was on. He never got 50% of the vote in any contested election he ever ran in.

 

[TomFitz]

Why? Is there something about that poll that makes it less reliable than the other poll?

I haven't looked at either of them, so I don't know.

Or do you just dishonestly dismiss something because it's reported by someone you don't like?

You could do some research and learn something for a change.

When a right wing public relations firm, “exclusively shares” its “results” with an extremist right wing blog, with a long established reputation for false “reporting” and red meat trash, there’s little reason to pay attention to it.

It’s just the right wing noise machine telling you want you want to hear.

Fabrizio, Lee & Associates is not much of a polling operation. Their record is dismal.

But it’s not surprising that their largest client is Donald Trump, who obviously bought the results to pump up his own endorsement.

And Steve Bannon made sure that Breitbart featured it. That way, it would be cribbed by other right wing blogs, parroted on right wing soclal media and promoted by right wing disc jockeys tommorow.

 

[TurtleDude]

Portman is terrible. He used to own a local business, which he sold to a giant Dutch corporation. Showing that like many members of the Republican party, his professed loyalty to America is mere lipservice.

Plus I don’t see where Portman has been some giant advocate of The Second Amendment.

Fortunately though, he will soon be replaced by JD Vance, who actually grew up in the base and actually loves America

wrong. Portman's late father Bill, started the business. His brother who goes by Wym is the one who sold the business. Rob had some ownership interest in the Portman equipment handling company but it was his brother and father who ran the business. It also kept the jobs that were in Monroe Ohio (15 minutes from my home) . What bothers you the most about Portman-the fact that he isn't homophobic because his son is gay?

 

[EMNofSeattle]

wrong. Portman's late father Bill, started the business. His brother who goes by Wym is the one who sold the business. Rob had some ownership interest in the Portman equipment handling company but it was his brother and father who ran the business. It also kept the jobs that were in Monroe Ohio (15 minutes from my home) . What bothers you the most about Portman-the fact that he isn't homophobic because his son is gay?

Even if the company is still operating, it means profits that should be going to the community in Ohio are being skimmed off the top by wealthy Dutchmen

Is that the case?

Well that’s too bad too, because it shows weakeness of character. You don’t have to be mean to someone for being homosexual, but just because you know someone who is does not mean you have to accept their lifestyle or their preferences as equivalent to ordered sex

 

[Gatsby]

JD Vance has had such a disappointing character arc. Back when he was famous for writing Hillbilly Elegy, he played up his image as a reasonable conservative who could understand liberals, and wanted them to return the favor.

Now he's going full Trump. And he doesn't even believe most of his rhetoric himself. He has so many tells that this is all a big performance for him. But if he wins the Senate seat, then it will stop being a performance and just become who he is.

Sadly, that's probably the most likely outcome.

 

[ElChupacabra]

JD Vance has had such a disappointing character arc. Back when he was famous for writing Hillbilly Elegy, he played up his image as a reasonable conservative who could understand liberals, and wanted them to return the favor.

Now he's going full Trump. And he doesn't even believe most of his rhetoric himself. He has so many tells that this is all a big performance for him. But if he wins the Senate seat, then it will stop being a performance and just become who he is.

Sadly, that's probably the most likely outcome.

What I found the least convincing was the reasons for him suddenly reversing course. From what I remember, he had pretty harsh critiques of Trump which extended beyond just policy disagreements. It's one thing if the issues Vance had with Trump changed when he became president, but his schtick was the same from campaign through his presidency. It's pretty clear he sees Trump's support as a means to an end.

 

[j brown's body]

Vance seems to be insane.

 

[Clicker III]

GOP obsession with Trump continues.

Responses like this reinforce the fact that TDS is alive and thriving in the fevered brains of the lunatic left.

 

[Credence]

No dog in this fight, but I do not see a "commanding" lead especially with all the $ Peter Thiel has thrown into this race

Polling Data​

Poll	Date	Sample	MoE	Vance	Mandel	Dolan	Gibbons	Timken	Pukita	Patel	Spread
RCP Average	4/20 - 4/29	--	--	24.5	21.0	16.0	15.0	7.0	1.5	1.5	Vance +3.5
Emerson	4/28 - 4/29	885 LV	3.2	26	24	21	17	8	2	2	Vance +2
FOX News	4/20 - 4/24	906 RV	3.0	23	18	11	13	6	1	1	Vance +5
Trafalgar	4/13 - 4/14	1078 LV	3.0	23	28	12	14	8	2	1	Mandel +5
FOX News	3/2 - 3/6	918 LV	3.0	11	20	7	22	9	1	2	Gibbons +2
Emerson	2/25 - 2/26	410 LV	4.8	8	15	6	22	6	--	1	Gibbons +7
Trafalgar	2/8 - 2/10	1085 RV	3.0	14	21	10	16	10	--	--	Mandel +5
Trafalgar	12/12 - 12/15	1053 LV	3.0	15	21	5	12	10	--	--	Mandel +6

 

[ElChupacabra]

Responses like this reinforce the fact that TDS is alive and thriving in the fevered brains of the lunatic left.

If Trump retired from politics and was still the subject of frequent discussion, then I'd agree with your point. He is active politically and backing candidates in races throughout the country, so he's going to be the topic of political discussions. As it relates to J.D. Vance, you have to wonder if he would have changed his opinion had Trump stepped away from politics. My guess is Vance probably wouldn't have had a change of heart. What's clear is Trump is an active presence in the GOP, and as such draws a pretty clear line for GOP candidates in terms of their campaign viability given Trump's popularity among GOP voters.

 

[Mongidig]

A post full of nonsense...
More Hitler garbage.

He literally called Trump “Americas Hitler”. He must like Nazis.

 

[Clicker III]

So you've just proved you have no idea what any of that means.

Well done.

This simply proves that the rest of us learning what it really means is terrifying you. What'll it be like when you figure it out too?

 

[ElChupacabra]

He literally called Trump “Americas Hitler”. He must like Nazis.

The pertinent question is how Trump went from that categorization to one where his endorsement was ok. It would have been much easier had Vance said something like: "I think Trump's policies are bad for the country" and then had a change of opinion. When you go "[insert person here] is Hitler!" then retract it you look a bit foolish because you were either a bad judge of character or became a gimp just for an endorsement.

 

[mrdeltoid]

Vance once called Trump "similar to Hitler" when Trump ran for the Presidency in 2016 and ridiculed Trump otherwise. Now, he's a complete Trump-bootlicker.

Maybe Trump likes the fact that he's being compared to Hitler ...

I was against Trump during the primaries and held my nose when I voted for him. When he actually started to govern, and put his policies in place, I supported him 100%. I always vote according to policies. Apparently, JD Vance does as well.

 

[Gateman_Wen]

This simply proves that the rest of us learning what it really means is terrifying you. What'll it be like when you figure it out too?

Once more, in english this time?

 

[Tender Branson]

No dog in this fight, but I do not see a "commanding" lead especially with all the $ Peter Thiel has thrown into this race

Polling Data​

Poll	Date	Sample	MoE	Vance	Mandel	Dolan	Gibbons	Timken	Pukita	Patel	Spread
RCP Average	4/20 - 4/29	--	--	24.5	21.0	16.0	15.0	7.0	1.5	1.5	Vance +3.5
Emerson	4/28 - 4/29	885 LV	3.2	26	24	21	17	8	2	2	Vance +2
FOX News	4/20 - 4/24	906 RV	3.0	23	18	11	13	6	1	1	Vance +5
Trafalgar	4/13 - 4/14	1078 LV	3.0	23	28	12	14	8	2	1	Mandel +5
FOX News	3/2 - 3/6	918 LV	3.0	11	20	7	22	9	1	2	Gibbons +2
Emerson	2/25 - 2/26	410 LV	4.8	8	15	6	22	6	--	1	Gibbons +7
Trafalgar	2/8 - 2/10	1085 RV	3.0	14	21	10	16	10	--	--	Mandel +5
Trafalgar	12/12 - 12/15	1053 LV	3.0	15	21	5	12	10	--	--	Mandel +6

I am still waiting for the final Trafalgar poll, which could be out tonight or tomorrow.

Trafalgar is a Republican pollster who usually does pretty well in GOP primaries and in years when Republicans do well in general elections, such as in 2014 or 2016.

This and the Emerson polls are probably the best to predict the outcome of the Tuesday primary.

 

[bubbabgone]

Vance and Arizona G.O.P. US Senate candidate, Masters, their financial backer, Thiel, Carlson, and Trump are unabashedly fascist.
Thiel's former PayPal business partner, Musk, is not far behind.

Schmidt's gift to "you people" was Sarah Palin, so you cannot discount that he knows where ya'll came from and where you are going...


Archived link to Yarvin's "slave discourse" where he uses the word 84X...

https://archive.ph/HVtQP

"...Some races are suited to be closer to Power, others to be slaves, and slave-master relationships will follow along those lines. Again, because this is natural, it's best for all parties."

You deserved to be ignored after that Godwin worthy "fascist" line but I continued anyway.
Why would you feature Steve Schmidt in your post?
Do you think the Lincoln Project holds some relevance in Republican Party circles?

 

[post]

You deserved to be ignored after that Godwin worthy "fascist" line but I continued anyway.
Why would you feature Steve Schmidt in your post?
Do you think the Lincoln Project holds some relevance in Republican Party circles?

Do you think the Trump party "holds some relevance in Republican Party circles?"

Steve Schmidt tried to placate the emerging fringe in 2008 by offering them, Sarah Palin, one heartbeat away from the office of POTUS.
He did not do that because he wanted to, he did it because he thought he might "head off" where this was all going to end up.
Now, here we are.... there is no, "heading it off"!

-snip- Thiel has given more than $10 million to super PACs supporting the men’s candidacies, and both are personally close to him. Vance is a former employee of Thiel’s Mithril Capital, and Masters, until recently the COO of Thiel’s so-called “family office,” also ran the Thiel Foundation, which has become increasingly intertwined with this New Right ecosystem. These three—Thiel, Vance, Masters—are all friends with Curtis Yarvin, a 48-year-old ex-programmer and blogger who has done more than anyone to articulate the world historical critique and popularize the key terms of the New Right. ...Political reporters, at least the ones -snip-

Archived link to Yarvin's "slave discourse" where he uses the word "slave" 84X...
https://archive.ph/HVtQP
"...Some races are suited to be closer to Power, others to be slaves, and slave-master relationships will follow along those lines. Again, because this is natural, it's best for all parties."