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Europe still sees US as greatest threat to stability

talloulou said:
Sometimes I think the Europeans are just a bit jealous of us and of course it's very trendy to hate America right now:cowboy:

I think thats hit the nail right on the head. Especially since Iraq I think America has almost become an easy target for criticism, its almost become the cool thing to do - rage against the US.

GySgt said:
What hurts Europe, China, and Africa is that they have no real structural program to introduce immigrants into their societies. They welcome the seperation of them.

Believe it or not some over here are already detecting this, its an old story, but one that certianly made the headlines...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/4270010.stm

I'm interested to know what you think Europe needs to do to change this situation?
 
Kandahar said:
Agreed.

Europe is undergoing its most rapid civilizational decline since the Dark Ages. Given current demographic and economic trends, it seems very likely that Europe will be consigned to irrelevance by the second half of this century, and the "international community" will mostly refer to the United States and East Asia.

Naturally they resent this decline in their importance, as most nations would. But they blame America instead of their own governments.

I not sure I agree. 50 years ago Europe lay in ruins, destroyed by two world war over 20 years. Today, Europe competes with the US and Japan in many key industrties. The GDP of the united Europe is greater than that of the United States. While it lags in per capita GDP, the major European states rank among the top nations of the world. Europe is just starting to make its way as a more united entity, a union that has taken decades to effect but whose ultimate effect is still unknown.

I don't see evidence of this great decline you are speaking of, unless you are talking about something else altogether.
 
Plain old me said:
I think thats hit the nail right on the head. Especially since Iraq I think America has almost become an easy target for criticism, its almost become the cool thing to do - rage against the US.

The big guy who throws his weight around in a bully-like fasion will always be resented. The big guy more than the others should be more cautious of using his power if he does not want to be resented.

The fact is, this Administration and the conservatives in this country could care less what Europeans think about us.
 
Iriemon said:
I not sure I agree. 50 years ago Europe lay in ruins, destroyed by two world war over 20 years. Today, Europe competes with the US and Japan in many key industrties.

(Western) Europe also had a functional economy 50 years ago, spurred by the Cold War. Today, most of Europe does not.

Iriemon said:
The GDP of the united Europe is greater than that of the United States.

This statistic is somewhat meaningless though, since Europe is NOT united.

Iriemon said:
While it lags in per capita GDP, the major European states rank among the top nations of the world.

For now. It's the DECLINE that poses a threat for them, not their present state.

Iriemon said:
Europe is just starting to make its way as a more united entity, a union that has taken decades to effect but whose ultimate effect is still unknown.

Given that France and the Netherlands voted against the EU Constitution, it seems likely that Europe will remain fragmented for decades to come. I don't necessarily see that as a bad thing in itself; Europe has too many different cultures and histories to effectively govern itself as a single entity anyway.

Iriemon said:
I don't see evidence of this great decline you are speaking of, unless you are talking about something else altogether.

Europe lags behind almost every other region of the world in terms of economic growth. It's been averaging only 1-2% per year, versus 3-4% for the United States and 8-10% for China and India. In thirty years, the average American will be twice as rich as the average Western European.

Since Europe seems unwilling or unable to reform its economies (for now), and the demographic trends suggest Europe is literally dying, this poor economic performance is unlikely to change in the near future.
 
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Kandahar said:
(Western) Europe also had a functional economy 50 years ago, spurred by the Cold War. Today, most of Europe does not.

Upon what do you base this statement? The economy of the EU is larger than the US.

This statistic is somewhat meaningless though, since Europe is NOT united.

Its a lot more united than it was 25 years ago.

For now. It's the DECLINE that poses a threat for them, not their present state.

DECLINE in what?

Given that France and the Netherlands voted against the EU Constitution, it seems likely that Europe will remain fragmented for decades to come. I don't necessarily see that as a bad thing in itself; Europe has too many different cultures and histories to effectively govern itself as a single entity anyway.

Who knows? There certainly has been a lot of progress towards European unity overall.

Europe lags behind almost every other region of the world in terms of economic growth. It's been averaging only 1-2% per year, versus 3-4% for the United States and 8-10% for China and India. In thirty years, the average American will be twice as rich as the average Western European.

Lotta ifs in there.

Since Europe seems unwilling or unable to reform its economies (for now), and the demographic trends suggest Europe is literally dying, this poor economic performance is unlikely to change in the near future.

Who knows. Economic predictions are notoriously inaccurate. But I think your characterizations of Europe "dying" or even declining are exaggerated.
 
I think alot of economic decline in Europe can be directly related to their consistently shrinking population. They need to start having more sex and kids.
 
Iriemon said:
Upon what do you base this statement? The economy of the EU is larger than the US.

The size of an economy is merely a snapshot of its relative importance at a given moment in time. It tells you nothing about the direction the economy is moving.

Iriemon said:
Its a lot more united than it was 25 years ago.

...which is still very little.

Iriemon said:
DECLINE in what?

Relative economic importance? Say, as a percentage of the world's GDP? That has been declining for a couple decades now.

Iriemon said:
Lotta ifs in there.

Not really. All that would need to happen is for the current trends not to suddenly and drastically reverse themselves.

Iriemon said:
Who knows. Economic predictions are notoriously inaccurate. But I think your characterizations of Europe "dying" or even declining are exaggerated.

Short-term economic predictions are notoriously inaccurate. Long-term macroeconomic predictions, such as this one, are much more accurate. Trends just don't reverse themselves without good reason.

As for the characterization of "dying" Europe, all one needs to do is look at the birth/death rates to see that it's true.
 
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talloulou said:
I think alot of economic decline in Europe can be directly related to their consistently shrinking population. They need to start having more sex and kids.

I reckon having sex isn't the part of the problem.

But I don't know that Europe is in "economic decline."
 
Kandahar said:
The size of an economy is merely a snapshot of its relative importance at a given moment in time. It tells you nothing about the direction the economy is moving.

What is your source that it has been in economic decline, if that is what you are maintaining. EU economy my not be growing as fast as the US economy currently is, but I think it is still growing.


Relative economic importance? Say, as a percentage of the world's GDP? That has been declining for a couple decades now.

I think you could say the same for the US. China and India are growing much faster than the US at the moment.

Not really. All that would need to happen is for the current trends not to suddenly and drastically reverse themselves.

Which seldom happens when you look over a period of time. In the 50s-70s European economies were growing fast than the US economy, I believe.

Short-term economic predictions are notoriously inaccurate. Long-term macroeconomic predictions, such as this one, are much more accurate. Trends just don't reverse themselves without good reason.

Short term predictions are notoriously innacurate. Long term forecasts are even worse. 5 years ago Bush was claiming he'd pay down the debt $2 trillion dollars over ten years, just an example of a major whopper that comes to mind.

As for the characterization of "dying" Europe, all one needs to do is look at the birth/death rates to see that it's true.

That is what you meant by dying? A little dramatic, don't you think?
 
Iriemon said:
What is your source that it has been in economic decline, if that is what you are maintaining. EU economy my not be growing as fast as the US economy currently is, but I think it is still growing.

I mean relative decline. I don't mean Europe is ever going to become third-world by today's standards...although we'll most likely adjust upward our standard of what it means to be a "wealthy nation."

Here, read what Fareed Zakaria had to say on the subject last February: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/02/13/AR2006021301569.html

Iriemon said:
I think you could say the same for the US. China and India are growing much faster than the US at the moment.

The United States has maintained roughly the same 20-25% share of the world's GDP since 1900, except for a brief spike following WWII.

Iriemon said:
Which seldom happens when you look over a period of time. In the 50s-70s European economies were growing fast than the US economy, I believe.

Europe grew dramatically in the 1950s because it had more room to grow following the destruction of WWII. This had pretty much levelled off by the mid-60s.

Iriemon said:
Short term predictions are notoriously innacurate. Long term forecasts are even worse.

That is not true at all. I can't tell you what the stock market is going to do tomorrow, but I can tell you that the stock market will most likely average 7-10% per year over the next fifty years.

Iriemon said:
5 years ago Bush was claiming he'd pay down the debt $2 trillion dollars over ten years, just an example of a major whopper that comes to mind.

Except:
1. That's still a short-term forecast.
2. That's political pandering.

Iriemon said:
That is what you meant by dying? A little dramatic, don't you think?

I assumed the meaning was clear. Europe is indeed dying in the most literal sense...a trend which will further impede economic growth.
 
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GySgt said:
Yes they should. After Mussolini's Italy rested control and forced the Brits out, the French colonies had faded to obsolescence with Britain's dwindling control, and they too were abandoned. During and after WWII, the Brits regained control and they were merely the last one's standing....

"Starting in 1875 the age of Imperialism in Europe transformed Somalia. Britain, France, and Italy all made territorial claims on the peninsula."

"The French were interested in coal deposits further inland and wanted to disrupt British ambitions to construct a north-south transcontinental railroad along Africa's east coast, by blocking an important section."


http://www.absoluteastronomy.com/h/history_of_somalia
They are referring to Djibouti here.

GySgt said:
After British occupation of Aden in 1839, the Somali coast became its source of food. The French established a coal-mining station in 1862 at the site of Djibouti, and the Italians planted a settlement in Eritrea. Egypt, which for a time claimed Turkish rights in the area, was succeeded by Britain. By 1920, a British and an Italian protectorate occupied what is now Somalia. The British ruled the entire area after 1941, with Italy returning in 1950 to serve as United Nations trustee for its former territory.
http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0107979.html

Djibouti has been considered to be a part of Somalia 100 years ago, but it is not.
 
Kandahar said:
As I already mentioned, "soon" means in a few decades, not at midnight tonight. France comes to mind. Denmark and the Netherlands aren't too far behind.
France might have 9 to 10 % Muslim population, Denmark 2 %, the Netherlands have 6.1 %.
 
GySgt said:
They welcome the seperation of them.
This is nonsense.

GySgt said:
It's in America where we will see Islam finally take on a more liberal form. Why? It's simple. Aside from our programs and all encompassing equalities, second generation Muslims will go to school with Christians, Hindus, athiests, etc. Little "Fatima" will wonder why her friends can do this and that and she cannot.
Little Fatima goes to school with Christians, Hindus, atheists in Europe, too. This is not a new development, it was this way when the first Muslim immigrants arrived.
 
talloulou said:
Sometimes I think the Europeans are just a bit jealous of us and of course it's very trendy to hate America right now:cowboy:
Yes, sure, Americans can't do anything wrong, it is always the fault of others :roll:
 
Volker said:
France might have 9 to 10 % Muslim population, Denmark 2 %, the Netherlands have 6.1 %.


The figure for Denmark is actually closer to 5%.

In another thread you insisted that the study of religion indicated a person was a scientist, so I realize such mattters as simple mathematics may be beyond you, but just what do you think happens when one population reproduces at rates well below replacement level and another population reproduces like there was no tomorrow? When native Europeans produce only 1.4. children per couple and Muslims three or four times that, are you capable as something so simple as the calculation of the resulting population trends?

Currenty, 25% of children in French schools are Muslim. It really doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that if 25% of five year olds are Muslim now, then 25% of France's 20 year olds will be Muslim in 15 years. As these are the prime reproductive years, and since Muslims have so many more children than French due to the lack of women's status among Muslims, then the figure for incoming 5 year olds will also be greater in 15 years. When that population reaches breeding age, likewise. If 25% of children are Mulsim currently, do you think they will just somehow disappear in the next 50 years, and that somehow the current level of 10% will hold?

It's really just simple mathematics, and the sorts of calculations one would expect within the abilities of a 12 year old. Perhaps the educational standards in Germany have dropped precipitously in recent years so there are fewer 12 year olds actually capable of such, but your listed age is much more than that, and so are the expectations of your abilities.

Do the math. Be honest. If you abandon honesty in pursuit of your political agenda, that is simply reflective of you own deficiencies, because all you have to do here is to perform some simple math and be honest in evaluating the results.
 
Gardener said:
Oh, say Ken Livingstone, for instance.

Or anybody who shares similar views.

IMO, politics certainly cannot be described as linear as there is so much more to it than a simple left and right, but if there were a way to add elements to our traditional linear way of looking at it by adding reference points in terms of dogmatism, chauvenism, authoritarianism, reactionary tendencies, degree of moral relativism and whatnot, I think we might begin to understand why the tacit support and/or apologia for Islamism is stronger on the far left than the middle or right. Dogmatic and reactionary people who rely on the easy excuse of "I am a moral relativist" are much less likely to address the actual nature of the Islamist belief system than those who aren't, and are much more likely to view the world through a certain sort of template where they are blind themselves to this reality.

What do Islamists believe? What do I believe? Does my identification with a label mean I need to rationalize these differences?

If the terms left and right have come to mean whether or not I object to Islamism, then perhaps I am a right winger now. I have certainly been accused of such by a thing that posts here. Perhaps, though, we just need a new language that defines us, for if we have come to the point where standing up for equal rights for women is "right wing", standing up for the rights of gay people is "right wing", standing against fundamentalist theocrats is "right wing" while acting as apologists for the Mullahs is "left wing", then in the last 30 years we have truly experienced a paradigm shift involving the inversion of the meaning of these terms.

I agree with a lot of what you say. As you're probably well aware the term "left" means something totally different in the US compared to Great Britain. The Labour party has no equivalent in the US, so the terms get a little murky.
 
Gardener said:
The figure for Denmark is actually closer to 5%.
According to Wikipedia it is 2 %.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Denmark


Gardener said:
In another thread you insisted that the study of religion indicated a person was a scientist, so I realize such mattters as simple mathematics may be beyond you, but just what do you think happens when one population reproduces at rates well below replacement level and another population reproduces like there was no tomorrow??
You have problems to classify sciences and that's why mathematics may be beyond me?
Now, this logic is beyond me.

Gardener said:
When native Europeans produce only 1.4. children per couple and Muslims three or four times that, are you capable as something so simple as the calculation of the resulting population trends?
Demographical prognoses are not simple mathematics.

Gardener said:
Currenty, 25% of children in French schools are Muslim. It really doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that if 25% of five year olds are Muslim now, then 25% of France's 20 year olds will be Moslem in 15 years.
Yes, 25 % meets my expectations for France. In Europe there have been 7 % of the babies born to Moslem families last year with Bruxelles (in Belgium) being on the top with 57 %.

Gardener said:
As these are the prime reproductive years, and since Muslims have so many more children than French due to the lack of women's status among Muslims, then the figure for incoming 5 year olds will also be greater in 15 years. When that population reaches breeding age, likewise. If 25% of children are Mulsim currently, do you think they will just somehow disappear in the next 50 years, and that somehow the current level of 10% will hold?
Why should I? What I did was adding actual numbers to the mentioned countries.

Gardener said:
It's really just simple mathematics, and the sorts of calculations one would expect within the abilities of a 12 year old. Perhaps the educational standards in Germany have dropped precipitously in recent years so there are fewer 12 year olds actually capable of such, but your listed age is much more than that, and so are the expectations of your abilities.
It is not simple mathematics. The European Moslem population tripled in the last 30 years and it is expected to double until 2020. The population in France might grow about 4.5 Million or 9.5 % until 2020. According to these numbers the share of Moslem population in France in 2020 would be about 18 per cent.

Gardener said:
Do the math. Be honest. If you abandon honesty in pursuit of your political agenda, that is simply reflective of you own deficiencies, because all you have to do here is to perform some simple math and be honest in evaluating the results.
Well, what is my political agenda then? Is it to give some facts when someone gets scared about something without a reason?
 
hipsterdufus said:
I agree with a lot of what you say. As you're probably well aware the term "left" means something totally different in the US compared to Great Britain. The Labour party has no equivalent in the US, so the terms get a little murky.
The Labour Party in Great Britain is a right wing party.
That's why they call it New Labour.
 
Volker said:
Well, what is my political agenda then?


Islamist

Interesting choice of a user name, btw. Since one Volker Hauth was such a good buddy of the terrorist Mohamad Atta and all.........
 
talloulou said:
I think alot of economic decline in Europe can be directly related to their consistently shrinking population. They need to start having more sex and kids.

That's the Brit Hume theory too. :rofl
 
Gardener said:
No, honestly, what do you mean by political agenda here?

Gardener said:
Interesting choice of a user name, btw. Since one Volker Hauth was such a good buddy of the terrorist Mohamad Atta and all.........
Yes, they were fellow students in the ninetees and they travelled the Middle East together.
It has nothing to do with me or my user name.
 
Plain old me said:
Believe it or not some over here are already detecting this, its an old story, but one that certianly made the headlines...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/4270010.stm

I'm interested to know what you think Europe needs to do to change this situation?


Well, the UK stands apart from continental Europe. For those core countries like France and Germany and others, I would suggest to simply follow the U.S. model. There should be no argument that the U.S. is the model for integrating immigrants into the social and economic mainstream. There's nothing really resembling equal-opportunity programs or affirmative action in Europe. Any attempts by these governments are half-hearted reforms. (Witness the riots in bigoted France). Those people who can't afford to make it to America find their way to England.

But before any of this, the typical European male must address his own personal core weaknesses. America is perhaps the very model of its efficient use of its human capital. Until Europeans recognize that they are wasting valuable talent by keeping their immigrants and their women out of the "man's world" they will never begin to repair the damage that has been caused by their simple adherences to passed down bigotry and racism. Hiding it behind such notions like the "Aryan nation" or the "pure superiority of the European white race" does not offer a chance for societal prosperity. It is stagnating. In Europe, "over-skilling," in which inherent and learned abilities wither in calcified workplaces, produces social peace at the cost of cultural and economic lethargy, security at the price of mediocrity. The occasional prime minister notwithstanding, it is far rarer to encounter a female executive, top professional, or general officer in that mythologized, "more equitable" Europe than in the United States. Change that men long resisted and feared in America resulted not only in greater competition for jobs, but in the creation of more jobs. The essential purpose of European diplomacy has been, and remains, the preservation of the powerful, by the powerful, for the powerful - this has always been the white male and his club is exclusive.

Of course, I speak in generalities and not individually, but the problem in continental Europe is wide sweeping and institutional.

The simplest way for people to understand this is to look at the countries. When immigrants go to France or Germany...do they go there to become Frenchmen and Germans? No they don't. They are not invited to assimilate. When they come here, they claim "American."
 
Volker said:
No, honestly, what do you mean by political agenda here?


Islamisim IS a political objective.

You support the Mullahs with 100% consistancy. You state that freedom is overrated and that Europe should capitulate to the demands of Islamists. You hate the Jewish state.

Your rhetorec does not diverge from that of the Muslim Brotherhood in any meaningful way.
 
I just think Europeans envy America. And they hate to admit that the U.S. had to save them from themselves when they started two world wars.

Europeans used to have a lot of power and they controlled most of the world, and now they don't so they hate seeing America's power and influence. Of course let's not forget how Europeans abused their power when they had it! :sigh:
 
Gardener said:
Islamisim IS a political objective.
It has nothing to do with me.

Gardener said:
You support the Mullahs with 100% consistancy. You state that freedom is overrated and that Europe should capitulate to the demands of Islamists. You hate the Jewish state.
I stated that freedom is overrated when talking about an specific issue. I would do so again.
The other three allegations you made up here are lies and you know this.

Gardener said:
Your rhetorec does not diverge from that of the Muslim Brotherhood in any meaningful way.
This statement is complete nonsense, it only shows your primitive level.
 
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