EU sets out embargo on Russian energy

[Infinite Chaos]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61295448

EU plans for new sanctions on Russian oil, military and TV​

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has given details of a sixth package of sanctions to be agreed in the coming days. She listed four separate types of sanctions:
-
Von der Leyen said the EU was also announcing an end to its dependency on Russian oil: "It will not be easy but we simply have to do it." All Russian oil will be phased out, she said, but in an orderly fashion. Crude oil will be phased out in six months and refined products by the end of 2022, she said.

About time too, Hungary and Slovakia will be exempt (don't think Orban's Hungary would agree even if they weren't so reliant) but this needs to be pushed faster and the remaining Banks need to be cut from SWIFT

 

[phoenix2020]

Good sign although I think it ought to happen about 2x faster e.g. phase out imports by ~August. In effect the EU is saying that they're going to act, but they're willing to let a few thousand Ukrainians die in order to mitigate economic impacts on the EU economy.

 

[Mycroft]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61295448

About time too, Hungary and Slovakia will be exempt (don't think Orban's Hungary would agree even if they weren't so reliant) but this needs to be pushed faster and the remaining Banks need to be cut from SWIFT

I find it amusing that the EU says they will give Hungary and Slovakia more time to find alternate supplies. The reality is that they need more time to convince those countries to get on board with the sanctions.

Hungary and Slovakia have stated they will not take part in those sanctions.

Here is what Hungary had to say...

Hungary will not support sanctions that would make Russian oil and gas shipments to Hungary impossible, Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said in a statement on Tuesday.

Speaking in Kazakhstan, Szijjarto said Russian oil shipments via the Druzhba pipeline accounted for about 65% of the oil Hungary needed and there were no alternative supply routes that could replace that. (link)​

I guess it's going to come down to how much it'll take of the $33 Billion in bribery money the US is dangling to get Hungary and Slovakia to change their positions.

 

[Evilroddy]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61295448

About time too, Hungary and Slovakia will be exempt (don't think Orban's Hungary would agree even if they weren't so reliant) but this needs to be pushed faster and the remaining Banks need to be cut from SWIFT

Infinite Chaos:

Europe will still be importing Russian Natural Gas and both China and India have made it clear they will import more Russian fossil fuels if the price is right. So it's a step in the right direction, but just a step.

In time the SWIFT system will be less important to Russia as the Chinese and Russians plus many other countries are developing another international payment clearinghouse system, so more work needs to be done there too.

Finally, if Russia declares war on Ukraine and goes to a total-war footing on or soon after May 9th, then all bets are off that NATO and the EU will be able to contain this conflict to a localised and conventional war inside Ukraine, while they arm Ukraine and throttle Russia economically. We live in interesting times, I'm afraid.

Cheers and be well.
Evilroddy.

 

[bluesmoke]

So, where will the EU get their oil from in this embargo plan, that doesn't come brokered from Russia through other countries, at a higher price? About 11% of the world's oil comes from Russia. About 60% of that goes to OECD Euro countries. Even in non-Russia oil producing countries wanted and tried to make up the diff, it couldn't possibly happen in 6 mos or probably 2 yrs. And they don't want to that's been indicated.

 

[joluoto]

I find it amusing that the EU says they will give Hungary and Slovakia more time to find alternate supplies. The reality is that they need more time to convince those countries to get on board with the sanctions.

Hungary and Slovakia have stated they will not take part in those sanctions.

Here is what Hungary had to say...

​

Hungary will not support sanctions that would make Russian oil and gas shipments to Hungary impossible, Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said in a statement on Tuesday.​

​

Speaking in Kazakhstan, Szijjarto said Russian oil shipments via the Druzhba pipeline accounted for about 65% of the oil Hungary needed and there were no alternative supply routes that could replace that. (link)​

I guess it's going to come down to how much it'll take of the $33 Billion in bribery money the US is dangling to get Hungary and Slovakia to change their positions.

Slovakia doesn't seem to really want to keep using Russian oil, it's just that their infrastructure is built around it, and they are landlocked which makes oil transport complicated.

Orban's Hungary has no intention to do anything to make Orban's daddy angry with him.

 

[joluoto]

So, where will the EU get their oil from in this embargo plan, that doesn't come brokered from Russia through other countries, at a higher price? About 11% of the world's oil comes from Russia. About 60% of that goes to OECD Euro countries. Even in non-Russia oil producing countries wanted and tried to make up the diff, it couldn't possibly happen in 6 mos or probably 2 yrs. And they don't want to that's been indicated.

Norway, Arab World (European leaders have been travelling to the Gulf monarchies begging for months now), Venezuela.

 

[Juin]

So, where will the EU get their oil from in this embargo plan, that doesn't come brokered from Russia through other countries, at a higher price? About 11% of the world's oil comes from Russia. About 60% of that goes to OECD Euro countries. Even in non-Russia oil producing countries wanted and tried to make up the diff, it couldn't possibly happen in 6 mos or probably 2 yrs. And they don't want to that's been indicated.

At this point it bears to point out that there is rational sanctions and hysterical sanctions. The former was the one cautioned to maximize damages on adversary while minimizing damages on oneself. The west has charged past rational sanctioning and is hopelessly lost in hysterical sanctioning. It inflicts greater self damage than damage on adversary.

 

[PeteEU]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61295448

About time too, Hungary and Slovakia will be exempt (don't think Orban's Hungary would agree even if they weren't so reliant) but this needs to be pushed faster and the remaining Banks need to be cut from SWIFT

Hungary will veto, so it aint happening at the moment... the Hungarians have stated so regardless of being exempt. They could change their minds with enough bribes.. or so I am guessing.

Regardless getting "rid" of using Russian natural resources is not something that can happen overnight unless you want 20+% inflation and blackouts. Even the UK has given it self til the end of the year to do so, and yet you want the EU to do it faster despite it being relatively more reliant on Russian gas/oil?

As for the whole Swift thing.. as predicted, removing Russian banks is a double edged sword. Given time, SWIFT will become irrelevant and replaced, which is not good for the Anglo-American financial system.

 

[Infinite Chaos]

Hungary will veto, so it aint happening at the moment

I expected nothing less from Hungary

They could change their minds with enough bribes..

Really hope not, that undermines all the efforts on Hungary's lack of democracy.

removing Russian banks is a double edged sword.

True but these things take time and all Russia has is energy exports. Who wants to buy Russian T-72 tanks after seeing what happens to them n the battlefield?

 

[Infinite Chaos]

if Russia declares war on Ukraine and goes to a total-war footing on or soon after May 9th,

Looking quite likely at the moment isn't it? He either calls things quits and a success in capturing Donbas or all-out war and mobilisation of his troops to re-invade Ukraine on May 9th.

 

[PeteEU]

I expected nothing less from Hungary

Really hope not, that undermines all the efforts on Hungary's lack of democracy.

Rather "take them out" ... and you can define who and how.

True but these things take time and all Russia has is energy exports. Who wants to buy Russian T-72 tanks after seeing what happens to them n the battlefield?

The war has already lasted 70 days, and the Russians have not exactly taken much notice of sanctions like this. By now, and frankly from the start... banning Russian banks from SWIFT without having the full backing of China and India was more political than a "financial hit".

All the sanctions we are doing against Russia, are being undermined by countries like Hungary, India, China and anyone else who wont commit to hurting Russia.

The west aka the Anglo-American financial system has been dominant for over a century because it has had control over the "system". By undermining SWIFT like it is with these sanctions, the whole system is under threat.

 

[Juin]

Hungary will veto, so it aint happening at the moment... the Hungarians have stated so regardless of being exempt. They could change their minds with enough bribes.. or so I am guessing.

I am beginning to think a Hungarian veto would be more a favour to the destructive sanctions policy being pushed be like of Poland and the Baltic midgets.

Regardless getting "rid" of using Russian natural resources is not something that can happen overnight unless you want 20+% inflation and blackouts. Even the UK has given it self til the end of the year to do so, and yet you want the EU to do it faster despite it being relatively more reliant on Russian gas/oil?

I am not even sure how one removes Russian energy from the markets. I imagine that has to be the goal of some of the hysterical calls. Russian energy is always gonna be there- directly or indirectly. I can even see a situation where A sells its oil to Europe for top Euros, then makes a tidy profit by filling its tanks from cheaper Russian oil.

As for the whole Swift thing.. as predicted, removing Russian banks is a double edged sword. Given time, SWIFT will become irrelevant and replaced, which is not good for the Anglo-American financial system.

You make too much sense.

 

[Evilroddy]

Looking quite likely at the moment isn't it? He either calls things quits and a success in capturing Donbas or all-out war and mobilisation of his troops to re-invade Ukraine on May 9th.

Infinite Chaos.

I think Putin knows that he cannot end this war now. Ukraine is getting stronger every week from Western military aid and the only thing limiting their greater effectiveness is training on new Western weapons systems. If Putin calls it quits when the whole Donbas is within his grasp, he will surrender initiative and then he will likely loose it all to Ukrainian counter-attacks. Ukraine is now fielding more troops than Russia in Ukraine and generally the Ukrainian troops are of much higher quality and élan. So to wait is to lose, for Putin.

On May 9th or soon thereafter will come the national mobilisation. Then it will take time to train up and kit out the new troops and to bring mothballed reserve armour up to working order. While that's going on the Russian Army already in Ukraine will keep up the pressure. But the danger there is that:

1) Putin will move to interdict arms flows from the West with tactical nuclear weapons.

2) That Russia will begin using thermobaric rockets and bombs in addition to chemical weapons as breakthrough weapons to keep some sort of offensive momentum going and to reduce city fortresses blocking his lines of supply.

3) That Putin will create a false flag chemical attack or a nuclear attack to justify a total war footing in Russia.

4) That the West will send in troops to northwestern Ukraine to create a humanitarian safe zone with a no-fly zone over it, which will trigger a direct conflict between Russia and the West.

Whatever happens watch to see if Russia begins to pull its navy and some attack subs (not nuclear-armed boomers) into safer coastal waters in the Baltic, Mediterranian and Pacific ports before the escalation begins. These military assets will be targets for the West to strike back at in the event of escalation in the war.

Be well and stay alive.
Evilroddy.

 

[Tigerace117]

Norway, Arab World (European leaders have been travelling to the Gulf monarchies begging for months now), Venezuela.

.....so in other words they are going to show their opposition to brutal dictators.....by buying more oil from brutal dictators.

Progress! 🙄

 

[Tigerace117]

I expected nothing less from Hungary



Really hope not, that undermines all the efforts on Hungary's lack of democracy.



True but these things take time and all Russia has is energy exports. Who wants to buy Russian T-72 tanks after seeing what happens to them n the battlefield?

Meh. Any weapon is only as good as the troops using it. There’s plenty of pictures and videos of shattered Abrams tanks and Bradley IFVs coming out of Yemen but countries still buy American gear.

Plus, of course, at least half the stuff Ukraine uses is Russian in the first place.

 

[bluesmoke]

Norway, Arab World (European leaders have been travelling to the Gulf monarchies begging for months now), Venezuela.

Norway doesn't have but a tiny fraction of the capacity needed. OPEC has given zero indication of helping out (see what begging gets you). Venezuela accounts for 1.2% of world oil exports and is an OPEC member. There's no there there.

 

[bluesmoke]

At this point it bears to point out that there is rational sanctions and hysterical sanctions. The former was the one cautioned to maximize damages on adversary while minimizing damages on oneself. The west has charged past rational sanctioning and is hopelessly lost in hysterical sanctioning. It inflicts greater self damage than damage on adversary.

The question is what's it worth saving democracy from autocracy and tyranny by invasion from a dictator who's on record denouncing democracy. Same thing here within America itself, where there is yet anything expended to do so.

 

[Juin]

The question is what's it worth saving democracy from autocracy and tyranny by invasion from a dictator who's on record denouncing democracy. Same thing here within America itself, where there is yet anything expended to do so.

The trillions spent in Afghanistan, Vietnam, Iraq.... quickly comes to mind. Sometimes its a bridge too far. In the case of Ukraine inexcusable, given that as far back as the 90s cooler heads had always pointed out that pushing too hard up Russia's backyard is fraught with risks. Russia has every reason to invade to forestall a hostile military alliance planting itself on its periphery. The US would do same.

 

[Infinite Chaos]

Meh. Any weapon is only as good as the troops using it.

The two elements go together. Ukrainians use Russian tanks but have also been trained in how best to knock them out. Russian tank units are being used in strange ways or the infantry is failing to serve in conjunction to protect Russian tanks from being exposed to single infantrymen with anti-tabs weapons.

at least half the stuff Ukraine uses is Russian in the first place.

And let';s not forget, Ukrainian operated tanks are just as likely to cook-off as Russian operated tanks if hit right.

 

[Lafayette]

Good sign although I think it ought to happen about 2x faster e.g. phase out imports by ~August. In effect the EU is saying that they're going to act, but they're willing to let a few thousand Ukrainians die in order to mitigate economic impacts on the EU economy.

Not at all, that red-bit above.

It is right to stay out of wars that are perpetrated by Putin and not with an EU-partner. The Ukraine is NOT a member of the EU, and it is quite likely to remain as such. (For as long as Putin is ruling Russia at the very least). It is getting more defense-support of the EU than any other non-EU country.

Putin is likely trying to stay in power as "King of Russia" because he fears what could happen to him were he not to have a 24-on-24 hour full-protection!

He is despised by many Russians ....

 

[Lafayette]

REMAIN UNITED

The two elements go together. Ukrainians use Russian tanks but have also been trained in how best to knock them out. Russian tank units are being used in strange ways or the infantry is failing to serve in conjunction to protect Russian tanks from being exposed to single infantrymen with anti-tabs weapons.


And let';s not forget, Ukrainian operated tanks are just as likely to cook-off as Russian operated tanks if hit right.

The Russians could not train-an-army if their nation depended upon it. Which is why Putin had to drop all his plans to "conquer" the Ukraine.

So, now he is trying to capture those parts of the Ukraine that were principally Russian-speaking.

Actually, only about 30% speak Russian as their first-language. Of course, if they do want to "breakaway" they could have done so already.

In fact, most do not want to join Russia. From here: Despite Concerns about Governance, Ukrainians Want to Remain One Country

More than three-quarters want to remain Ukrainian. Likely because they feel the Ukraine's future depends more on trade with the European Union than with Russia.

And they are quite right in that sentiment ... !

 

[bluesmoke]

The trillions spent in Afghanistan, Vietnam, Iraq.... quickly comes to mind. Sometimes its a bridge too far. In the case of Ukraine inexcusable, given that as far back as the 90s cooler heads had always pointed out that pushing too hard up Russia's backyard is fraught with risks. Russia has every reason to invade to forestall a hostile military alliance planting itself on its periphery. The US would do same.

I agree the US would do the same. Cuba would be an example that came gawdawful close. Iraq was an example of a pre-emptive strike with no cause for invasion, though not on our border nor forming military alliance with others hostile to the US. The US is in no moral position to speak as we do. But what you say does not justify what Putin is doing nor dismiss the US from participating in supporting Ukraine's defense against Russian invasion. Should NATO invade Belarus to "...forestall a hostile military alliance planting itself on its periphery."? Besides the one already planted that has taken over now NATO countries before.

 

[Infinite Chaos]

More than three-quarters want to remain Ukrainian. Likely because they feel the Ukraine's future depends more on trade with the European Union than with Russia.

And they are quite right in that sentiment ... !

Like many others under Putin, they will have to fight to have their voices recognised.

 

[Lafayette]

A NATIONAL REVOLT IN RUSSIA

Like many others under Putin, they will have to fight to have their voices recognised.

The lock-down on "Putin's Russia" is going to take time to sink-in. But it IS working. The country is in for some very serious diminishing of its economy. Which has never been exceptional. The lowering of oil-profits will get the mechanism started. Europe, in particular, must reduce usage of Russian oil/gas.

The autocrats who took over the management of the country under Yeltsin (first ever nationally voted president of Russia in 1991) oversaw the distribution of Russia's treasury to the existing plutocrats who are still running the country.

A surprisingly large number having committed suicide in families. See here: Every Russian Oligarch Who Has Died Since Putin Invaded Ukraine—Full List

All that has to change and it wont under Putin. He has to go along with his "friends". And who must do that?

Nobody today, the super-rich are having their yachts sequestered around the world. So the country must get into an absolutely awful economic-situation before it can be "self-corrected" by an internal national revolt.

Which the Russian people have never ever undertaken except to create the Soviet Union a long, long time ago (1922) ...