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EU is expected to approve a Russian oil embargo in a bid to halt the Ukraine war

Rogue Valley

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EU is expected to approve a Russian oil embargo in a bid to halt the Ukraine war

iu

4.30.22
The European Union is expected to approve a Russian oil embargo in a bid to halt the Ukraine war. EU ambassadors are expected to meet on Wednesday to finalize the proposal, weeks after EU countries discussed the measure. The move would facilitate a quick approval and avoid the time-consuming process of gathering leaders, the Times reported. Managing director for Europe at Eurasia Group, Mujtaba Rahma, told the Times: "More important than the oil embargo is the signal that Europe is united and taking back the initiative." He added that a more sudden cut to oil imports would have been more impactful for Russia, but too costly for Europe. Officials told the newspaper Times that the oil embargo would be the biggest and most important sanction yet. It would also include sanctions against Russia's biggest bank Sberbank, officials said.

Earlier this week, Germany announced it was ready to stop buying Russian oil, paving the way for the EU to impose a full embargo. Russia cut off supplies to Poland and Bulgaria after the countries refused to pay in rubles. Vladimir Putin's former chief economic advisor, Andrei Illarionov, suggested in early April that Russia would halt military operations in Ukraine "within a month or two" if Western countries stopped buying Russian oil and gas. Illarionov said he believed Russia would be spared complete economic devastation thanks to its strength with exports — particularly energy exports. Russia is Europe's biggest oil supplier. However, under the embargo, European countries would rely on increased imports from Persian Gulf countries, Nigeria, Kazakhstan, and Azerbaijan, per the newspaper.


Even more important, Europe must find the ways and means to end its addiction to Russian gas.
 

bluesmoke

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What is the embargo effect on how much import of Russian oil over what period of time and where will the EU get that 27% of their oil imports that are from Russia? Methinks this may be more show than immediate stop of all Russian oil import.
 

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where will the EU get that 27% of their oil imports that are from Russia?

The Middle East, North Africa, conservation, and green energies.

Germany is down to just 12% Russian oil. A manageable number.
 

joluoto

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And it seems Hungary and Slovakia will be excempt from the embargo.
 

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The Middle East, North Africa, conservation, and green energies.

Germany is down to just 12% Russian oil. A manageable number.

The ME is not dependable. They've already signaled that. As if the ME will cover a total shutdown of Russian oil.

North Africa is fraction of world oil exports and declining. Even a lesser fraction of reserves. Though a big chunk of NA oil exports go to Europe, they can't ramp up so easily.

Conservation and green energy replace oil, which does not have to do with finding more oil to replace embargoed oil.

My post had to do with the EU, not just Germany, as did your OP.

So, what will the EU embargo of Russian oil look like? A total shutdown?
 

Rogue Valley

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The ME is not dependable. They've already signaled that. As if the ME will cover a total shutdown of Russian oil.

North Africa is fraction of world oil exports and declining. Even a lesser fraction of reserves. Though a big chunk of NA oil exports go to Europe, they can't ramp up so easily.

Conservation and green energy replace oil, which does not have to do with finding more oil to replace embargoed oil.

My post had to do with the EU, not just Germany, as did your OP.

So, what will the EU embargo of Russian oil look like? A total shutdown?

I'm not privy to their plans. However, I believe Slovakia and Hungary would be granted exemptions.


 

Juin

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What is the embargo effect on how much import of Russian oil over what period of time and where will the EU get that 27% of their oil imports that are from Russia? Methinks this may be more show than immediate stop of all Russian oil import.



Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia and Poland may have to step up to fill the gaps. They are top sanctions hawks :)
 

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I'm not privy to their plans. However, I believe Slovakia and Hungary would be granted exemptions........................~
along the lines of being"permitted" a delay. So that they can get their act together in securing alternative sources of supply

Note how I inverted the "permitted", the EU (Brussels) can of course neither permit nor forbid anything its member states decide.
 

lemmiwinx

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Don't tell me! Europe is still addicted to fossil fuels? I thought they were like decades ahead of the rest of the climate destroying world. Where's Greta when she's needed?
 

bluesmoke

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When held up against the Russia of today, that assessment is quite funny.;)

Funny because the EU can more likely get increased production from Russia than from the ME.
 

bluesmoke

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I'm not privy to their plans. However, I believe Slovakia and Hungary would be granted exemptions.



Still, it cannot be shown how resultant loss of oil to the EU from any effective oil embargo of Russian oil can be offset by other sources of oil import. Most likely, the oil embargo will not be much of an embargo that would have much an effect on the Ukraine war. Nonetheless, every little bit helps and, yes, the gas is even more of a sticky wicket. It can't so easily be transported (LNG) vs the pipes currently running from Russia, and North Africa/Norway. Even longer term, the powers that be, oil, make it difficult to convert to renewables.
 

bluesmoke

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Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia and Poland may have to step up to fill the gaps. They are top sanctions hawks :)

If only they had any oil to export.
 

Chagos

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Funny because the EU can more likely get increased production from Russia than from the ME.
Anyone deluding themselves into the belief that Russia is a serious trade partner while it is under the command of Putin and his ilk, need have their head examined.
 

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Still, it cannot be shown how resultant loss of oil to the EU from any effective oil embargo of Russian oil can be offset by other sources of oil import. Most likely, the oil embargo will not be much of an embargo that would have much an effect on the Ukraine war. Nonetheless, every little bit helps and, yes, the gas is even more of a sticky wicket. It can't so easily be transported (LNG) vs the pipes currently running from Russia, and North Africa/Norway. Even longer term, the powers that be, oil, make it difficult to convert to renewables.

I provided you with the EU oil embargo decision on Sunday morning (POST #1).

It is neither my place nor my responsibility to deduce alternative sources. Slovakia has requested an exemption due to its situation.

The EU Commission is scheduled to vote on the oil embargo measure this afternoon.

I guess we'll find out today won't we?
 

bluesmoke

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Anyone deluding themselves into the belief that Russia is a serious trade partner while it is under the command of Putin and his ilk, need have their head examined.

How more serious trade partners does the EU have to make up the 27% of their oil imports being from Russia within the next 6 mos or by whenever? That is, at the very least, delusional dishonesty. Who are they pretending to fool besides themselves?
 

bluesmoke

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I provided you with the EU oil embargo decision on Sunday morning (POST #1).

It is neither my place nor my responsibility to deduce alternative sources. Slovakia has requested an exemption due to its situation.

The EU Commission is scheduled to vote on the oil embargo measure this afternoon.

I guess we'll find out today won't we?

I mistook your responses of what other sources of oil than Russia the EU had as if satisfying the need to make up the diff in shutting off oil imports from Russia. I guess you only wish to provide information and are taking no position in this matter as to the practicability of any plan to replace 27% of EU oil coming from Russia. I'm still unclear.

Apparently, the plan is to ban Russian crude over the next 6 mos and refined oil by the end of the yr:


The plan still has to be approved by member companies. I suppose anything could change during that process. I didn't see anything in the plan about where else they would get the oil, than Russia, that sounded practical to me.
 

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I mistook your responses of what other sources of oil than Russia the EU had as if satisfying the need to make up the diff in shutting off oil imports from Russia. I guess you only wish to provide information and are taking no position in this matter as to the practicability of any plan to replace 27% of EU oil coming from Russia. I'm still unclear.

Apparently, the plan is to ban Russian crude over the next 6 mos and refined oil by the end of the yr:


The plan still has to be approved by member companies. I suppose anything could change during that process. I didn't see anything in the plan about where else they would get the oil, than Russia, that sounded practical to me.

 

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How more serious trade partners does the EU have to make up the 27% of their oil imports being from Russia within the next 6 mos or by whenever? That is, at the very least, delusional dishonesty. Who are they pretending to fool besides themselves?
Personally, I'd turn the Emirates and Saudi back into the camel-herding economies they used to be, but still neither has invaded a European neighbor as yet.
 

joluoto

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Personally, I'd turn the Emirates and Saudi back into the camel-herding economies they used to be, but still neither has invaded a European neighbor as yet.
They have invaded a neighbor though.
 

bluesmoke

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Personally, I'd turn the Emirates and Saudi back into the camel-herding economies they used to be, but still neither has invaded a European neighbor as yet.

Now they're herding oil, much more than any other geographic group of countries. OPEC over half.
 

joluoto

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Now they're herding oil, much more than any other geographic group of countries. OPEC over half.
All this is true, yet that's where leaders of EU member states and western energy companies hope to find replacement.
 

bluesmoke

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All this is true, yet that's where leaders of EU member states and western energy companies hope to find replacement.

That they "hope", aka pipe dream, is an at best assessment to replace in the time frame of the EU plan. Not only unrealistic, but likely impracticable considering even if whomever ramps up production for the benefit of the EU will have to take time to do so. IMO, the two time frames of 6 mos and end of yr (8mos) isn't enough time. Which was my point. How much from where in time.
 
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