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Scenarios are being presented on how the war will end.
Your take?
This is from Der Tagesspiegel.
*Der Tagesspiegel is a German daily newspaper. It has regional correspondent offices in Washington D.C. and Potsdam
The currently most likely scenario for an end to the Ukraine war
Part of the truth of Putin's war of aggression is that a diplomatic end to the invasion will be messy and painful. Also for the West.
But how should the war end?
Three scenarios are possible.
First, Putin could be ousted, overthrown, killed. The level of anger and frustration within Russia, including at the Stalinist methods of suppressing any form of opposition, should not be underestimated.
Large sections of the elite are leaving the country. Within the military and in oligarchy circles, there may be a growing realization that the president's inhumane escapades have become intolerable. It's a possible but unfortunately not very likely scenario. Putin is KGB-trained, he smells intrigues. So far there is nothing to indicate a loss of control within power.
Second, Russia could lose the war militarily. The invaders would continue to take massive casualties, with soldiers deserting. In the end, what was left of the army would ignominiously withdraw. This is also a possible, but unfortunately not very likely scenario.
The third thing that remains is diplomacy. The objection is that there's no point in talking to Putin, he doesn't keep any agreements and breaks every contract. That's correct. Only the Russian President holds the reins in his hand. There is no one else to negotiate with in a meaningful way.
The sad truth is that a diplomatic end to this war will be messy and painful. It is possible that agitators will call for the fight to continue at all costs or even for NATO to intervene. Because a Putin who has miscalculated badly needs a result that he can still sell as a success in Russia.
The Ukrainian government will have to explain this to its citizens without giving the impression that the many sacrifices were in vain. Finally, the West will be faced with the question of whether it is ready to relax sanctions after an agreement between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin, even though Putin remains in office.
A current analysis by the US magazine "The Atlantic" warns of an ominous dynamic. If the West intensifies its support for Ukraine—triggered by a combination of Putin's barbarism Ukrainian successes against the Russian army, and Western optimism about a possible victory over Russia—there could be miscalculations on the Russian side that stem from desperation. "The longer the crisis lasts, the greater the danger." The global political situation is more threatening than during the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962.
https://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik...er-ein-ende-des-ukraine-krieges/28165734.html
Your take?
This is from Der Tagesspiegel.
*Der Tagesspiegel is a German daily newspaper. It has regional correspondent offices in Washington D.C. and Potsdam
The currently most likely scenario for an end to the Ukraine war
Part of the truth of Putin's war of aggression is that a diplomatic end to the invasion will be messy and painful. Also for the West.
But how should the war end?
Three scenarios are possible.
First, Putin could be ousted, overthrown, killed. The level of anger and frustration within Russia, including at the Stalinist methods of suppressing any form of opposition, should not be underestimated.
Large sections of the elite are leaving the country. Within the military and in oligarchy circles, there may be a growing realization that the president's inhumane escapades have become intolerable. It's a possible but unfortunately not very likely scenario. Putin is KGB-trained, he smells intrigues. So far there is nothing to indicate a loss of control within power.
Second, Russia could lose the war militarily. The invaders would continue to take massive casualties, with soldiers deserting. In the end, what was left of the army would ignominiously withdraw. This is also a possible, but unfortunately not very likely scenario.
The third thing that remains is diplomacy. The objection is that there's no point in talking to Putin, he doesn't keep any agreements and breaks every contract. That's correct. Only the Russian President holds the reins in his hand. There is no one else to negotiate with in a meaningful way.
The sad truth is that a diplomatic end to this war will be messy and painful. It is possible that agitators will call for the fight to continue at all costs or even for NATO to intervene. Because a Putin who has miscalculated badly needs a result that he can still sell as a success in Russia.
The Ukrainian government will have to explain this to its citizens without giving the impression that the many sacrifices were in vain. Finally, the West will be faced with the question of whether it is ready to relax sanctions after an agreement between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin, even though Putin remains in office.
A current analysis by the US magazine "The Atlantic" warns of an ominous dynamic. If the West intensifies its support for Ukraine—triggered by a combination of Putin's barbarism Ukrainian successes against the Russian army, and Western optimism about a possible victory over Russia—there could be miscalculations on the Russian side that stem from desperation. "The longer the crisis lasts, the greater the danger." The global political situation is more threatening than during the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962.
https://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik...er-ein-ende-des-ukraine-krieges/28165734.html
