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Elite Economist Explains why USA will win Trade war

BrainNebula

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Gary Shilling, an elite economist who predicted the housing crash, explains why the USA will win the trade war with China, and why we'll be better off for the trade war.

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Captain Adverse

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Gary Shilling, an elite economist who predicted the housing crash, explains why the USA will win the trade war with China, and why we'll be better off for the trade war.

Source

Of course we'll win if his opponents stop hindering his efforts.

China's recent economic success is based on changing from a pure controlled-economy to a mixed controlled-capitalist one. It is also dependent on American investments, access to American products, transfer of American industry to their territory (which provides employment and profits), and the access to American technology (via theft or agreement) from those same companies. This won't last forever as they eventually catch up; but right now it gives the US an edge that Trump is trying to leverage into fairer trade to benefit the USA.

Right now we have that leverage, and IMO we'll win this trade war if we stick to our guns.
 

AlbqOwl

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Gary Shilling, an elite economist who predicted the housing crash, explains why the USA will win the trade war with China, and why we'll be better off for the trade war.

Source

History will ultimately decide if President Trump has been wise or not so wise in his views and methods on international trade. So far there seems to be far more positive results than negative ones. So I hope Gary Shilling is right re China. Other than the USA, China is the closest thing to a super power in the world and it sure feels right not to allow them the upper hand over us.
 

Mycroft

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This guy understands what Trump is doing.
 

jnug

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If I am not mistaken China's "business" debt, though their system is so convoluted, I am not sure it should just be called "debt" is about $31T.

However what they have that we do not have beyond Xi's President for life status is iron control of the population. It is so bad now that they have actually developed a rating system for citizens. You know what that means and the citizens have bowed to it.

They will do what Xi tells them to do including tighten their belts for as long as Xi tells them to tighten their belts or they will take control of the South China Sea lanes, completely overwhelm Taiwan and dare us to do something about it. The more we knuckle under to authoritarians and their goals of conquest (see Putin and others) the more we will embolden others to do likewise. But in truth I don't think it will come to that. The Chinese will tighten their belts as much and as long as Xi tells them to. They will wait our Trump just as Iran waited out Carter and hand whatever spoils there might be to the next President, not this one. Frankly, unless we actually do something substantive and effective about China's IP theft there will be no spoils no matter who sits in the WH. Hard to accomplish with Trump'g go it alone and crap on everybody else mindset.
 
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Acadia

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Of course we'll win if his opponents stop hindering his efforts.

China's recent economic success is based on changing from a pure controlled-economy to a mixed controlled-capitalist one. It is also dependent on American investments, access to American products, transfer of American industry to their territory (which provides employment and profits), and the access to American technology (via theft or agreement) from those same companies. This won't last forever as they eventually catch up; but right now it gives the US an edge that Trump is trying to leverage into fairer trade to benefit the USA.

Right now we have that leverage, and IMO we'll win this trade war if we stick to our guns.

You are so right about Trump's opponents trying to throw road blocks in his way and every single turn. It's amazing what he's accomplished given the hurricane-force headwinds he faces each day.
 
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