Elections and Lower Gas Price Fix Cycles? (1 Viewer)

[Navy Seal Patriot]

2000: August peak, $1.43; second week of September, $1.55. No seasonal break there.

-- 2001: August peak, $1.65; second week of September, $1.62. Down three whole cents.

-- 2002: August peak, $1.38; second week of September, $1.36. Down two pennies.

-- 2003: August peak, $1.71; second week of September, $1.63. Down nine cents.

-- 2004: August peak, $1.85; second week of September, $1.79. Down six cents.

-- 2005: August peak, $2.59; second week of September, $2.88. Big jump. Katrina's to blame (wink, wink).

-- 2006: August peak $3.03; second week of September, $2.41. Down 62 cents on the average, and even more in specific markets. Wow! Now, there's a seasonal break the like of which has never been seen, either in actual pennies or in percentage terms. How can that be, if prices were being set by something other than greed? Perhaps someone can explain the market forces that made a 20-25 per cent cut possible.

Until then, I'm going to keep an eye on those August peak prices, which have gone up quite nicely, if you're an oilman who's chummy with the crowd in the White House and in Congress. And I'm going to keep assuming that the oil crowd is merely doing its buddies in Washington a little election-season favor by temporarily loosening the thumbscrews on an unhappy and restive electorate, which is turning a baleful eye on incumbents.

http://qconline.com/archives/qco/sections.cgi?prcss=display&id=305750

Me and my neighbor were debating if this is fixed or not; obviously with the stats above it seems to be the case; I could not find any other stats for previous decades and the US as a whole--if someone could post these to prove or disprove, please do.

 

[Captain America]

As I said in a post long ago, I predict a further drop in gasoline prices (which, by the way, has happened since that post) until the public forgets the recent past, gets all warm and fuzzy, re-elects the same yahoo's we have now and not too long after the elections, watch the prices climb back up to 5.00 a gallon or more.

We are a gullible public.

 

[Loki]

I hate to disagree CA but I do feel this is more about supply, demand, and possibly speculators.

 

[Kandahar]

The price has fallen so drastically because there's less risk premium. Any conflict in the Middle East (such as Israel-Lebanon) is bound to send gas prices surging, and when they cool down the gas prices come down.

Also, there was a huge oil reserve just discovered in the Gulf of Mexico, which could've reduced speculation on the assumption that the supply will be higher in the future (and therefore the price will be lower).

And as you pointed out, this is hardly the norm for September. If this was really some kind of election year trick, why wouldn't it happen EVERY September of even-numbered years?

 

[hipsterdufus]

When even Joe Six Pack is talking about energy independence, Big Oil has to do something...hence the lower prices. They've made their nut for the year, and then some.

 

[easyt65]

'Supply and demand' or 'need and price hike for profit'?!

A few months ago I was reading about an oil shortage....this was just before the summer vacation season, and gas prices soared. Funny how it was reported today, at the end of vacation season and the return of kids to school, that there is an 'oil surplus' - more oil than we can process into gas right now (a jump from shortage to surplus SO quickly?!) and gas prices are dropping! :roll:

Who wants to bet me that heating oil prices go through the roof this winter....again. Some may argue that it is supply and demand while others argue that it is just greed. Others argue - 'same/same'!