This one is simple. Who WILL be the nominee? Fill free to expand on who should be in the comments.
This one is simple. Who WILL be the nominee? Fill free to expand on who should be in the comments.
Won't happen. It may be all but decided by 4 March 2020, the day after Super Tuesday.No majority going into convention=open convention. Hillary?
This one is simple. Who WILL be the nominee? Feel free to expand on who should be in the comments.
It may be all but decided by 4 March 2020, the day after Super Tuesday.
To me the real question is which of the big four get's sunk before Super Tuesday. Historically, no candidate has finished third or lower in both Iowa and New Hampshire and gone on to win. As a practical matter, two stories come out of the caucuses/primary. One is the winner and the other is the unexpected, which can be good or bad (remember the Dean scream)? Those two names get a massive amount of free national publicity.
It always is over before all the primaries are done, unless there is a brokered convention. In 2016, Hillary wrapped it the week before the final round, and that was unusually late.It can't be decided before all 50 states and 6 territories have finished their balloting. Super Toesday is just the busiest Election Day, not a majority of states having elections. This race is not going to be a blowout nationally when you add up all 56 elections.
No matter who it is I think we should impeach that mother ******!
I can't see him surviving the scandal surrounding his son, but it hasn't hurt his poll numbers.It's sure shaping up to be Biden. I'll still never quite get over how our Democratic nominee is basically chosen in Iowa.
lacking an impeachable offense has not slowed the Democrats noticably.That would require
a)an impeachable offense,
b)Republicans controlling the House, and
c)the White House providing a House investigation with any witnesses and documentation they request.
The problem is of course c). Without witnesses and documentations, you'll have no evidence to work off, and without a 2/3rds majority Senate for conviction, there'll be no removal from office.
I can't see him surviving the scandal surrounding his son, but it hasn't hurt his poll numbers.
Its going to be brokered. That’s why the DNC put Bloomberg in. He’s not a player, he is just a push to sideline the left and isolate Bernie, then broker a viable VP behind Biden. (Or Hillary*)
Given the standards of today, she is imminently impeachable. It would actually be successful based on “pay for play” at the Clinton Foundation alone.
This one is simple. Who WILL be the nominee? Fill free to expand on who should be in the comments.
It always is over before all the primaries are done, unless there is a brokered convention. In 2016, Hillary wrapped it the week before the final round, and that was unusually late.
In practical terms, it is frequently over in March. Momentum, money, publicity, endorsements are all important and all flow to candidates doing well. Hillary mathematically clinched in May, but in practical terms it was over before it started because of the endorsements and the super-delegates. Those won't be an issue this time, but one candidate could generate an insurmountable lead on Super Tuesday, for example by winning California, Texas and the North Carolina/Virginia pair.
I can help with that. 2020 Presidential Calendar | Debates, Primaries, Conventions - Election Central Super Tuesday will allocate 1345 ordinary delegates out of 3936, basically 1/3. California's 416 delegates used to be chosen in May or June.How many more elections remain after Super Tuesday? I have to check the primary schedule, which I have never done before.
You say the next few, but what does that mean? Biden has had a big lead in South Carolina. Is that gone? If not Biden, who wins the first heavily black influenced state? After that and another caucus in Nevada, the floodgate opens and we have 15 states on one day. So, the next few really does not work.Biden seems to have been significantly hurt by Iowa. I question whether he'll make it through the whole nomination process, and speculate whether he'll drop out within a month or two, if not sooner. Polling certainly seems to indicate that either Buttigieg or Sanders will take the next few primaries.
I wonder if it's an effect of how many people don't even look at candidates much before voting. I mean, personally I've been keeping an eye on the options since early 2019 probably, if not longer. But I've heard anecdotes of people not even being aware of what Sanders was running on, or that person who was surprised Buttigeg was in a same-sex marriage and thought it was wrong. Quite clearly, there are plenty of people much less informed about the options, and that may explain why Biden dropped so badly in Iowa.
I was looking at RCP averages for Iowa and NH, and Biden was chugging along in the lead until the last few months of 2019 in Iowa, when he dropped and never really recovered. For NH it happened in the beginning of December. I'm wondering if it's a "now we're paying attention' effect.
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