The Prof
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Early voting numbers scare Democrats :: CHICAGO SUN-TIMES :: Carol Marin
1. The burbs are beating the burroughs, completely unprecedentedly, in some bailiwicks by 3 to 1.
2. The COOK COUNTY clerk concedes.
3. It's African Americans in Chicago---they're way down.
4. 40,000 fewer blacks are REGISTERED to vote in the Windy City than there were in 06.
5. Chicago witnessed a bump of 190,000 votes in 08 over 06, but today there are 160,000 FEWER residents registered to vote.
6. Many moved, presumably, others died, explains the Sun Times.
7. In 48 of 50 downtown wards, voter registration is down.
8. EIGHTEEN African American neighborhoods have taken a "big hit."
9. The bump in the burbs has got to be bloodcurdling to Melissa Bean in the 8th, Bill Foster in the 14th and Debbie Halvorson in 11.
10. According to the Sun Times, if the party cannot turn out suburban women, then Quinn and Giannoulias are "cooked."
11. Yet PEW last week demonstrated that Republicans are actually LEADING the female vote, 49 to 43.
12. Amongst white women, the gap grows to TWENTY points.
Pew Poll: Tsunami Warning For Democrats - Hotline On Call
13. What the dems of Illinois are experiencing in the Land of Lincoln is extrapolating across the country.
14. Leadership has largely given up on the House, it's concentrating its furious efforts in this final, frantic week on the Senate, particularly California, Washington and Nevada.
15. And its outreach is directed very pointedly at women.
16. In the 77 most competitive House races, Republicans lead on average by TWELVE percent.
17. NBC/WSJ, just a few days earlier, said that in the 92 closest districts the anti-Obamites were up by FOURTEEN.
GOP Holds Stable Lead In Swing Districts: NBC News/WSJ Poll : It's All Politics : NPR
18. And THAT's amongst REGISTERED voters.
19. By all models one can safely forecast that had LIKELY voters been screened instead the red range would be several points higher.
20. Independents are going GOP by a plurality of NINETEEN.
21. Did you see what Charlie Cook wrote this week? Larry Sabato? Nate Silver? Stuart Rothenberg? Jay Cost and Sean Trende?
National Journal Online - The Third Wave In A Row
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » OCTOBER RESET
Projected Republican Gains Approach 50 House Seats - NYTimes.com
House Ratings | The Rothenberg Political Report
Morning Jay: Special "Penultimate Predictions" Edition! | The Weekly Standard
22. The latter did an enlightening analysis this morning, asking, exactly WHO is a "likely voter" in 2010?
23. Trende begins by looking at the voter turnout in the gubernatorials in New Jersey and Virginia, one year ago, the nite Chris Christie ousted Jon Corzine and Bob McDonnell undid Creigh Deeds and his donkey named Harry S Truman.
24. Actual voterships in those bellwethers, notes Trende, were very close to the 2004 presidential.
25. Yet today's pollsters, Gallup, Rasmussen, PPP, CNN, are all of them looking naturally at turnouts closer to 06 and 08.
26. Trende concludes, if you employ a turnout model closer to 04, you get a result that adds about 3 points to, pretty much, every Republican in the country.
27. Both McDonnell and Christie outperformed THEIR pre-election surveys by that skinny but crucial margin, Trende details.
RealClearPolitics - Who's Going to Vote This Year?
28. I have quite a bit more but that's enough for now, talk to ya soon.
The Prof
With just one more week of early voting left, Cook County Clerk David Orr, a Democrat, doesn't mince words: "There is certainly a scare here for the Democrats."
For Democratic top-of-the-ticket candidates Pat Quinn for governor and Alexi Giannoulias for U.S. Senate, there has got to be real concern about mobilizing the African-American vote in Chicago, a base that they need to turn out in significant numbers.
And yet, the signs are worrisome. Though midterm elections always show a drop in voter participation from the preceding presidential election, there are 40,000 fewer registered black voters now than in the 2006 midterm.
With Downstate voters expected to turn out for Republicans, and suburban women the wild card in this election, Democrats have got to deliver their base in Chicago or Quinn and Giannoulias are cooked.
1. The burbs are beating the burroughs, completely unprecedentedly, in some bailiwicks by 3 to 1.
2. The COOK COUNTY clerk concedes.
3. It's African Americans in Chicago---they're way down.
4. 40,000 fewer blacks are REGISTERED to vote in the Windy City than there were in 06.
5. Chicago witnessed a bump of 190,000 votes in 08 over 06, but today there are 160,000 FEWER residents registered to vote.
6. Many moved, presumably, others died, explains the Sun Times.
7. In 48 of 50 downtown wards, voter registration is down.
8. EIGHTEEN African American neighborhoods have taken a "big hit."
9. The bump in the burbs has got to be bloodcurdling to Melissa Bean in the 8th, Bill Foster in the 14th and Debbie Halvorson in 11.
10. According to the Sun Times, if the party cannot turn out suburban women, then Quinn and Giannoulias are "cooked."
11. Yet PEW last week demonstrated that Republicans are actually LEADING the female vote, 49 to 43.
12. Amongst white women, the gap grows to TWENTY points.
Pew Poll: Tsunami Warning For Democrats - Hotline On Call
13. What the dems of Illinois are experiencing in the Land of Lincoln is extrapolating across the country.
14. Leadership has largely given up on the House, it's concentrating its furious efforts in this final, frantic week on the Senate, particularly California, Washington and Nevada.
15. And its outreach is directed very pointedly at women.
16. In the 77 most competitive House races, Republicans lead on average by TWELVE percent.
17. NBC/WSJ, just a few days earlier, said that in the 92 closest districts the anti-Obamites were up by FOURTEEN.
GOP Holds Stable Lead In Swing Districts: NBC News/WSJ Poll : It's All Politics : NPR
18. And THAT's amongst REGISTERED voters.
19. By all models one can safely forecast that had LIKELY voters been screened instead the red range would be several points higher.
20. Independents are going GOP by a plurality of NINETEEN.
21. Did you see what Charlie Cook wrote this week? Larry Sabato? Nate Silver? Stuart Rothenberg? Jay Cost and Sean Trende?
National Journal Online - The Third Wave In A Row
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » OCTOBER RESET
Projected Republican Gains Approach 50 House Seats - NYTimes.com
House Ratings | The Rothenberg Political Report
Morning Jay: Special "Penultimate Predictions" Edition! | The Weekly Standard
22. The latter did an enlightening analysis this morning, asking, exactly WHO is a "likely voter" in 2010?
23. Trende begins by looking at the voter turnout in the gubernatorials in New Jersey and Virginia, one year ago, the nite Chris Christie ousted Jon Corzine and Bob McDonnell undid Creigh Deeds and his donkey named Harry S Truman.
24. Actual voterships in those bellwethers, notes Trende, were very close to the 2004 presidential.
25. Yet today's pollsters, Gallup, Rasmussen, PPP, CNN, are all of them looking naturally at turnouts closer to 06 and 08.
26. Trende concludes, if you employ a turnout model closer to 04, you get a result that adds about 3 points to, pretty much, every Republican in the country.
27. Both McDonnell and Christie outperformed THEIR pre-election surveys by that skinny but crucial margin, Trende details.
RealClearPolitics - Who's Going to Vote This Year?
28. I have quite a bit more but that's enough for now, talk to ya soon.
The Prof